1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Sean Conway MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Leo Jordan MPP
New Democratic Party:
Gerard Boyer
Green Party:
Thane Heins
Natural Law Party:
Andre Giordano

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Renfrew North (100%):
Sean Conway
Lanark-Renfrew (32%):
Leo Jordan

Member of Parliament:
Hec Clouthier

Surrounding Ridings
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Population: 93 066
Avg Household Income 40 718
Language (Home)
English 88 195
Submitted Information
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02/22/99 Burke Christian Email: external@msu.mcmaster.ca
I am familar with Eastern Ontario because most of my mother's family is from this region. I would predict that Sean Conway will successfully retain his seat in the Legislature. Sean has held Renfrew North since the 70's and I believe his repore with the local community will assist him in his election bid. The PC's will not do well in this region because of healthcare restructuring. The North Eastern part of Ontario has been badly hit by healthcare cuts and the hospital resturturing board which closed local hospitals. This will work against the Tories and help elect Liberals in this region.
03/08/99 Tracy Boyer Email: sacpres@admin.humberc.on.ca
I am from this riding and I don't have statistical information to prove the NDP could win but I believe there is a chance. The current Liberal member (Sean Conway) is stale and as former minister of education has remained silent throughout the education controversy. The NDP candidate is an average tax payer and a school principle who has the ability to make a difference. The Liberals inaction could prove harmful and unless the conservatives come up with a strong leader - the NDP have potential to pick up some good support in this riding.
03/14/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
If a stalwart like Ish Theilheimer couldn't unseat Sean Conway through his several tries--or even get halfway to Conway's vote in that NDP dream year of 1990--no New Democrat can. That said, there could be untapped NDP potential, based upon the geographic-demographic-economic similarities between Renfrew County and much of the NDP's Northern Ontario turf--and some of the party's recent figures from places like Deep River (where they got 15% federally in 1997) indicate so much. But not while Conway's still around. And as for threats from the rightward spectrum, even with the added polls from Leo Jordan's solid-PC Lanark-Renfrew (and even if Jordan was running)--even with the combined right outpolling the controversial Liberal Hec Cloutier in 1997--even with particularly strong past local support for forces like the Confederation of Regions Party--Conway's safe. From one end of the Opeongo Line to the other, and all the way north and west to the border of Mike Harris's own domain, Sean Conway OWNS the joint, and the school and hospital and highway and municipal cutbacks and downloadings and amalgamations will ensure that it stays his for yet another term. Wait 'til he retires.
04/14/99 Email:
There are some ridings where we should save money by not even holding elections. This is one of them. Conway, no doubt about it.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
This one will go PC. It will be close, but Leo Jordan keep this one for the tories squeaking by a popular Liberal candidate. It's decieving, but everybody I'l talked to from there is saying they're leaning toward tory OR a few NDP.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Leo Jordan hasn't really been associated in the riding with the government as much. This will probably help him. Liberals might have a shot, unlikely however considering the history...
04/19/99 J C Email: 8jc3@qlink.queensu.ca
This is another very interesting riding. Two incumbants, fighting each other for a new riding seat. Leo Jordan may not of been the Minister of Education but he does have an impressive slate in the Harris government. Currently Parliamentary Assistant to Economic Development, trade and tourism he was formerly deputy house whip. Another interesting quirk about this riding is the fact that you have two high profile anti-bill 160 candidates. This could result in a vote split for the few who find that issue as number one. In essence nutralizing that as a threat. I'm saying it's a swing built for two between the Grits and the Tories.
04/19/99 DC Email: djwcolem@kos.net
Sean Conway is bringing 100% of his old riding in. Leo Jordan is bringing 32 % of his riding. If Jordan won this, he would hardly be retaining the riding (most of his riding is with Norm Sterling). This would be one of the biggest upsets of this election.
05/09/99 A.L. Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
This riding is Conway's to lose. However, after 25 years at Queen's Park, Conway seems to be getting tired and doesn't have the fire in his belly he had a few years ago, especially as he's gone from Liberal wunderkind, superstar and likely future leader to overripe veteran. If Conway doesn't, in his heart of hearts, want to spend another 4 years at Queen's Park (and I don't think he does) and campaigns half-heartedly he could well be upset but only if the Tories match or improve their 1995 popularity.

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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