1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Mike Brown MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Keith Currie
New Democratic Party:
Lynn Watson
Libertarian Party:
Graham Hearn

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Algoma Manitoulin (100%):
Mike Brown
Algoma (100%):
Bud Wildman
Lake Nipigon (11%):
Gilles Pouliot
Nickel Belt (13%):
Blain Morin
Sault Ste. Marie (1%):
Tony Martin

Member of Parliament:
Brent St. Denis

Surrounding Ridings:
Nickel Belt
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Timmins-James Bay

Population: 76 253
Avg Household Income 42 356
Language (Home)
English 65 170
French 7 585
Submitted Information
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02/16/99 Jeff Paul Email: jdpaul@julian.uwo.ca
This will be a fight to the end between the Liberals and the NDP. There were two ridings merged here, Algoma and Algoma-Manitoulin and as a result there is no real incumbent. The guys to watch are Mike Brown and Wildman Jr. (I forget first name). This will come down to the east end of the riding vs. the north end. Whomever gets their votes out will win, but I give the edge to Mike Brown. Look at +/- 3% on the final outcome
03/09/99 A. Jackson Email: jacksona@adan.kingston.net
Northern Ontario has always been and will remain an NDP stronghold. The poeple of Northern Ontario and in particular Algoma have been extremely loyal to Bud Wildman in return for his sincere loyalty. An NDP candidate certainly has a lot of work to fill his shoes but I believe the people of the new riding will have confidence in the only real alternative to the P.C.'s cuts and general ignorance of Northern Ontario culture and needs.
03/11/99 The Insider Email:
Tories selected great candidate in Keith Currie, a school principal. Will be able to bridge many of the smaller communities around him. Tories support is a mile wide and a mile deep. Unlike the Libs. Brown not as popular as he once was. Time for a change.
Too Close
03/12/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
This could be interesting--my 1995 estimations make this a very tight 3-way race, with a slim advantage to the Liberals. Mike Brown's the only incumbent running, but his profile is low, and his incumbency's more an accident of having narrowly escaped the 1990 NDP rout. Hopes for a continued Wildman dynasty have been scotched for now, but their base remains strong, especially in the northern resource towns. And then there's the PCs, who once might have been seen as having no hope beyond North Bay. In 1995 they had a third of the vote and second place to the NDP in Algoma, and a third of the vote and second place to the Liberals in Algoma-Manitoulin. Reform support strengthened here in 1997, and one might also look to the "surprise" 2nd place PC finish in last year's Nickel Belt byelection. Manitoulin, St. Joseph Island, and the "frontier belt" of townships around and east of the Soo could conceivably fling Algoma-Manitoulin rightward--you can be sure that the PCs are viewing this, especially in face of a possible Lib-NDP split, as a target toward their reclaiming the once-hostile North. One thing's certain--it'll be a severe symbolic blow to the NDP if their anointed successor to Bud Wildman winds up in third. But ANYONE can finish third here--even Mike Brown. Keep a careful eye on goings-on here...
03/16/99 Email:
The NDP is said to have worried they wouldn't be able to find a top-quality candidate to replace Bud Wildman. Fortunately for them, they have found one in Lyn Watson. She should be able to defeat invisible Liberal Mike Brown.
05/04/99 Ralph Mason Email:
Mike Brown is a very lucky man. With Bud Wildman retiring that was good news for Brown. Then with NDP MPP Blain Morin deciding not to run it was very good news for Brown. Then on top of all that good news, the NDP nominated a weak candidate in Lyn Watson who will not put up much resistance. What the NDP in this riding must understand is when your party is at fourteen per cent in the polls you only win ridings with a high profile candidate. Lyn Watson is just not a star candidate who can take this riding on her own. Mike Brown also caught a break when the Tories nominated Keith Currie who is not very well know to anyone. Mike Brown has done a pretty good job for his old riding and that will be enough for him to hang on to the riding. In this case it is better to be lucky that all that good.
05/14/99 P. Kasman Email:
I've taken a trip there recently and ive changed my mind. It is going to be a VERY close race.
05/20/99 An Observer Email:
I've heard some reports that Tory strategists in this area are pegging the race as one between Tory candidate Keith Currie and Liberal incumbent Mike Brown. The old riding of Algoma was safe NDP territory, but massive boundary changes mean that they no longer have an "edge" in this territory. Some Tories apparently believe that a good showing by the NDP will allow their candidate to win through a vote-split. The fact that Bud Wildman chose to resign rather than run in the new riding might indicate the weakness of the NDP in the Manitoulin area (they came in third last time). I'd give an "educated guess" edge to Brown, but there is the danger that Currie (although not well known in the area) could win via a strong NDP showing in the western part of the riding.
05/26/99 Email:
Before the leaders' debate, a TFO poll said the Liberal led Watson 32.6%-20.9%. Since the debate, it's NDP 32.6%, Liberals 20.9%, PCs 23.3%. The NDP is up more than 11 percentage points, the Liberals are down 11%, and the Tories down 5%. Looks like the prediction should be changed from Lib Hold...
05/29/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
In the least we should be seeing a LIB<-->PC possibility here. NDP will be sucking away some of Brown's support, and Currie appears to be a strong candidate and has a realistic chance at winning. I hear from people with cottages in this area that Currie has a noble showing.
05/29/99 lrs Email:
probale Liberal hold- but with NDp gaining in north according to pools would be close
05/29/99 A. Email:
Lynn Watson is DEFINITELY a high-profile candidate. He's a local reeve who has been involved in municipal politics in the riding for about three decades. He's also a former constituency assistant to the Bud-Man (who retired mainly due to family obligations, as he has said he would for several years now). Given the NDP's recent surge in the polls, I'd say Mike Brown's days are numbered.
05/30/99 Observer Email:
From my recent visit thru this area, it is obvious that each of the three parties are leading in at least some of the many towns in this riding. This was the Liberals to lose, and, with some help from Dalton McGuinty, we should expect a replay of 1995 - a three-way photo finish.
05/30/99 gail nyberg Email: gail.nyberg@tdsb.on.ca
I was up in this riding last week-end. I was surprised at the amount of Tory support. I think it is too close to call.
05/31/99 Jerry Email:
This campaign is starting to come together. The Liberals seem to be fading and the NDP seems to be gaining. The Tory street campaign still looks non-existent. One wonders how much vote they have. Could it be that Tory voters do not want to tell their neighbours how they are voting. That could be the wild card. It is still a close raise. I would put all three parties within about 4000 votes of each other. The Tories still in first marginally over the NDP with the Liberals close behind. Anything can still happen. I have talked to a large number of voters and about a quarter are still undecided. Most of those will not consider voting PC. They are still deciding who to vote for between the NDP and Liberals. Strategic voting may affect this race. Looks like a long night.
05/31/99 EKB Email:
I think Currie is going to pull an upset here in a three way race. Currie has been is municipal politics in Algoma for over 25 years.
Mike Brown isn't as popular as people think - he's lost Manitoulin Island - his home area - in 1990 to the NDP, and 1995 to the PC's. Elliot Lake has completely changed its' demographics due to retirement living. A lot of people have retired to Elliot Lake from the Toronto suburbs.
Lyn Watson will be strong, but he's no Bud Wildman. He'll win the north part of the riding, but not much else.
06/01/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Don't discount Currie here. Given the PCs apparent momentum in this riding, and the fact that provincially they seem to be steaming ahead, a vote split is entirely possible here.
06/02/99 D.L. Email:
My math class surveyed 175 people in the Kincardine 396 area. 60% indicated they would vote Liberal, 25% P.C. 12% N.D.P. and 3% Family Coalition.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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