1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
David Levac
Progressive Conservative Party:
Alayne Sokoloski
New Democratic Party:
David Sharp
Natural Law Party:
Eleanor Hyodo
Graham McRae

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Brantford (100%):
Ron Johnson
Brant-Haldimand (30%):
Peter Preston

Member of Parliament:
Hon. Jane Stewart

Population: 99 511
Avg Household Income 61 362
Language (Home)
English 94 300
Submitted Information
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03/11/99 Email:
Last election was the first time Brant went something other than Liberal since the 1930s... look for this riding to slip back into the Liberal column this time.
03/12/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Actually, only the rural part of Brant--most recently in Brant-Haldimand, and Harry/Bob Nixon country--was solidly Liberal for all that time. Brantford itself, on the other hand, had a predominantly NDP-PC history until the PCs disintegrated in face of the 1987 Peterson landslide (only to recover in the last election, by which time it was the NDP's turn in 3rd place purgatory). And federally, Brant's placeholder for a quarter century was NDPer Derek Blackburn, who sponged up much of what otherwise would have been Liberal support--though when Blackburn retired, the riding's future was assured by the Liberals nominating Bob Nixon's daughter Jane Stewart. The message is familiar; you want an automatic Liberal victory in Brant, nominate a Nixon. Still, I'm tentatively putting this in the Liberal column, especially as there's no Tory incumbent to worry about--but I do so with reservations, and might be tempted to move it into the "too close" category instead. And not just because of a potential Tory awakening; although they came in third last time, the NDP's still-strong base in central and south Brantford meant that they won more Brantford polls than the second-place Liberals. In the right climate, this very definitely ought to be seen as an NDP target riding.
04/08/99 NOW Email:
Cooking up a Tory defeat By Enzo di Matteo
Tory hopeful Alayne Sokoloski begins behind the eight-ball in this Liberal stronghold where outgoing PC incumbent Ron Johnson leaves a legacy of controversy over his expense claims and infrequent attendance at Queen's Park.
The area has been a hotbed of teacher and anti-casino unrest, and a persistent trouble spot for the Tories with the proposed closure of the area correctional facility and only Catholic hospital.
The Grit candidate, popular Paris high school teacher Dave Levac, also has history on his side. The riding was held for 30 years by former Peterson cabinet minister Bob Nixon before he resigned and it was taken by the Tories in 95.
More good news for Levac. Nixon's daughter, Indian affairs minister Jane Stewart, represents the riding federally.
04/19/99 b.k. Email:
if you look at the long term political past of this riding and the past prosperity and growth the parties that held power the longest did little to promote or benefit the area. Take a good look at the unemployment , the businesses that left ,the jobs that left. This area is a swing riding because it was hung out to dry. What politician can bragg that they could keep growth on par with the surrounding areas. Which politician got the 403 completed? This is the greatest positive step for this community. Location is as good as access. If one individual helped it happen and his personal life was muddied and dragged through the press and he did it inless than 3 years. What comment must we reserve for those that supposedly did it full time and achieved nothing over 10 to 20 years. who really was the slacker? who really could not deliver?
04/26/99 Phil Gillies Email:
Your earlier submission that this riding had a long Liberal history is largely incorrect. The rural part of Brant was indeed Liberal for many many years. But this only accounts for about 30 per cent of the new riding, most of which is made up of the old provincial Brantford Riding.
I was the P.C. MPP for Brantford from 1981-87. Before me the riding was:
Liberal through the 50s to 1967.
NDP 1967-71
PC 1971-75
NDP 1975-81
Then I served two terms.
After me:
Liberal 1987-90
NDP 1990-95
PC 1995 to present.
My sources in Brantford tell me that the once-formidable NDP machine has largely disintegrated, and that the fight this year will certainly be between the PCs and the Liberals.
05/03/99 Larry Ritches Email:
I agree with the previous secttion that says the NDP has fallen apart in Brant. The Tories are also not in good shape. The Antics of MPP Brad Johnson have badly split the Brant Tories and he is not running again. With both the Tories and the NDP in a mess, this leaves Brant open for Liberal Dave Levac who will easily sweep this riding. Dave has been campaigning everywhere in the riding while I have yet to see any other candidates.
05/05/99 POKO Email: pokokat@worldchat.com
The Conservatives intend to close down two correctional facilities in Brantford - this is not acceptable to the city and indeed the citizens. The Liberal candidate supports the Burtch Regional Correctional Centre as outlined in SAVE our JAILS at http://members.xoom.com/jffraser/public_html/jimfraser.html The Liberals should sweep this county as they should any county concerned about safekeeping their law enforcement capability and keeping criminals safely behind bars.
05/13/99 mjs Email:
In Brant, whichever party is elected federally, a different party gets in provincially. Jane Stewart of the Liberals represents the riding federally, so I predict Alayne Sokoloski will get the nod provincially. The NDP are out of the picture this time, and Dave Levac, who is running for the Liberals, has crafted his platform to appeal to narrow special interest groups -- especially teachers and nurses. While he's popular with this sector, his appeal is not broad.
05/16/99 Chuck McPhail Email: w5p@hotmail.com
As a former Ward 5 City Councillor in the City of Brantford, I believe I have some valuable input to share, regarding the present election campaign here. Firstly, the rural part of Brant riding has been traditionally Liberal. The new city part of the riding though has been somewhat of a mixed bag. As Phil Gillies previously noted, since 1967, all three major parties have had a kick at the can. However, I believe any Tory hold on this riding(particularly in the City of Brantford part), is tenuous at best. If this were any other provincial election, I believe the NDP could win this riding. However, this time around, I believe the Liberals will win this one in a landslide. The Tory way of governing does not generally go over well in this area of the province. It takes a special kind of Tory(such as Phil Gillies was) to win and maintain political respect in this riding.
I believe that the impact of tory governance, generally on this riding, will hold sway over the importance of individual candidates.
In my view, riding redistribution, will now make this generally a swing riding. This time, the swing will be to the Liberals.
05/25/99 Bob Yuhasz Email:
Dave Levac, previous citizen of the year, community volunteer extrodinaire, tough, honest, hardworking will defeat PC,s. PC candidate had to be dumped because of incompetence, media labelled "Where,s Ron" or "Ron Who?", bought out with some kind of casino related job.
05/29/99 A. Email:
The riding has certainly changed, as has the province. This is not the old rural Liberal Ontario of Harry Nixon any more, and urban Brantford has a way of swinging with the wind. Right now, the region seems to be leaning Tory, and therefore I'll put this one in their camp.
05/29/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I was through here recently, and yes indeed, it appears that the NDP's been strategized into the margins. And the Tories are in enough fighting form, which gives the Liberals added incentive. I'll still call it Liberal, but perhaps it's better off being "too close"...
05/31/99 wjd Email:
I beleive the Liberals will be elected in Brant for a number of reasons. The NDP does not have the large manufacturing base it had in the seventies and eighties to count on and it will take more time for the workers to come back around. The PC, while they ahave a fair candidate have hurt our City with the massive cutbacks in health care and welfare. Not least to say, that the current MPP Johnson, seemed to be non- existant in the Riding. The Liberals on the other hand now have a large new area of voters which used to be in another riding. The majority of these voters follow the Nixon coat tails and vote Liberal (Jane Steward). Dave Levac has also been in the forefront as a volunteer for many years. This will be a plus for him come election day. I personally have always been an NDP supporter and will be in the future, however this time, I will be voting Liberal to help ensure we are not stuck with the Harris Government for a further term of office.
06/02/99 lrs Email:
was able to see part of all candidates meeting on cable- Liberal and Tory candidate put on best show- PCS will need substantial NDP vote to be able to hold seat-if NDP vote low- certain loss- a liberal loss would be fatal to chances

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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