1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Doug Miller
Progressive Conservative Party:
Toby Barret MPP
New Democratic Party:
Prue Steiner
Green Party:
John Jaques
Family Coalition Party:
Barra L. Gots
Natural Law Party:
Stefan Larrass

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Brant-Haldimand (44%):
Peter Preston
Norfolk (84%):
Toby Barrett

Member of Parliament:
Bob Speller

Population: 95 652
Avg Household Income 45 853
Language (Home)
English 90 755
Submitted Information
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03/17/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Before 1990, this was a typical SW Ontario rural Liberal bastion (Bob Nixon represented parts of it)--now, after a typical NDP interlude, it's a typical SW Ontario rural Tory bastion, and appears typically destined to remain so. In other words, typical. But typically, nothing's 100% guaranteed. (Just ask some of the candidates in the past couple of elections!)
04/21/99 r.martin Email:
Doug Miller is a strong candidate with a high progile name in this area. His father is long time MPP Gord Miller. Gord is still very popular with the people in this riding and Doug has many of the same characteristics. Miller will win this riding.
04/28/99 T. Allen Email:
Now that the provincial Tories are taking legal action against the tobacco companies in the United States, this riding is going to go Liberal. Dalton McGuinty spoke to the tobacco board on April 25 and the meeting was a great success. This has put Liberal candidate Doug Miller in the drivers seat as the tobacco board will support the Liberals. This is tobacco country and the growers always decide who wins this riding and this time they are voting Liberal.
04/29/99 Carlos Pardo Email:
I must agree with the previous writer. Now that the Tories are going after the tobacco companies, any advantage Toby Barret had in this riding is gone. As a tobbacco producer, I am tired of the attack on this legal crop. Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty showed us that he is willing to listen to the concerns of our industry and the growers are now firmly behind the Liberals. It also helps the Liberals that they have a good candidate in Doug Miller. I've know Doug and his father Gord MIller for many years and this will help the Liberals take this riding on June 10.
04/29/99 Terry Porter Email:
On April 28 Doug Miller and the Liberals held a great fundraising dinner in Port Dover. There were over 300 people who came to here from Former Liberal leaders, Bob Nixon and Lyn McLeod. Lyn and Bob talked about how much damage the Tories have done to Ontario and how important it is to win this election. Doug Miller's campaign has taken off down here in the souther part of the riding. Toby Barrett is going to have a hard time matching the Liberal campaign in Haldimond- Norfolk -Brant. The Newdemocrats are not on the map in our riding so it is a two way race and people who want to get rid of the Tories know they have to vote for the Liberal, Doug Miller.
04/29/99 Jim Gedye Email: jgedye@better.net
I agree with some of the other writers here. The PC incumbent is definitely on the run. With the threat of Secondary school closures in the riding, the PC's may not be trusted by the voters. The Miller name, the suit against the tobacco companies and a well organized campaign team will all assist in the Liberal win.
05/03/99 Mike Reid Email:
In this riding the NDP usually get about 15-18 per cent of the vote. In this election, former NDP MPP Norm Jamison has joined the Liberal Party and has brought over a lot of his supporters. This should reduce the NDP support in our riding and help make the Liberal vote even stronger. Toby is looking desperate as Doug Miller and his team are ready to take this riding.
05/21/99 J. Smith Email:
It appears by the number of lawn signs that Doug Miller is running a strong campaign. With recent articles speaking of the outrage of P.C. campaigners and accusations of a public works conspiracy against them (Simcoe Reformer article) it appears that Toby's team is getting worried. This was also demostrated by the need for the Premier to come to a private barbeque in Delhi to try to bolster morale. It makes me wonder why morale is so low. The P.C.'s know that this election is very much up in the air and it appears to be only a two horse race. With many groups working against the somewhat unpopular incumbent, it looks as if Miller is in good shape heading toward election day.
05/25/99 S. Armstrong Email:
I believe the main issues in this riding are clear: dependable health care, keeping local schools open, support and promotion of agriculture and the environment. From the numerous speeches I have heard him deliver, I believe Doug Miller possesses the vision and the ability to see to these needs in the best interests of the people in this riding. I think he will be the successful candidate in this election.
05/28/99 J. Taylor Email: canada1@email.com
With school closings looming, a severe shortage of doctors and nurses, and crowded classrooms with not enough books to go around once, as well as the highest municipal tax increase in the province, 17.9%, because of provincial downloading, and Doug Miller's honest pledge to work for his constituents FIRST, the Liberals should win this riding. PC incumbent Toby Barrett recites canned made-in-Toronto answers, and continues to blame the problems in this riding on everyone else. Voters can see through his shroud. The NDP are barely visible on the political horizon here.
05/31/99 POKO Email: pokokat@worldchat.com
One has to wonder what the conservative candidate is thinking....his webpage is full of dead links. It has been this way for months. How could anyone seriously consider someone for office who thinks so little of his voters that he takes no time to bring complete/accurate information to the webpage he owns? The Liberal webpage is well-thought out and offers much information to its viewer. I suppose this is a reflection of the parties themselves: Conservative politicians keep everyone in the dark as knowledge is power. Liberal politicians keep everyone informed as an informed society is a Just Society. (Where is Pierre Elliot these days anyhow?)
05/31/99 Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
This riding being one of the targeted ridings combined with this list appearing in the Star and the Spec will aloow Miller to carry it for the liberals.
05/31/99 Email: alaric@bis.on.ca
On Friday May 28th McGuinty gave a speech at Miller's headquarter's in Simcoe. It was well attended. In my estimation the crowd was over the 200 count the Brantford Expositor reported on Saturday's front page. Aside from the numerical under-representation the paper gave a very liberal account of the event. This may give Miller the edge he needs. The Liberals aren't looking down.
06/01/99 lrs Email:
I know I am going against grain and Liberals have a strong candidate if Tories lose here- a blow to majority hopes- NDp vote mist disappear 5% or below to make certain Liberal win
06/01/99 R. Richards Email:
I think that the incumbant , Toby Barrett is not a good representative of our area...

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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