1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Hamilton Mountain

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Marie Bountrogianni
Progressive Conservative Party:
Trevor Pettit MPP
New Democratic Party:
Chris Charlton
Green Party:
Kelli Gallagher
Natural Law Party:
Bob Danio
Family Coalition Party:
Jim Enos
Rolf Gerstenberger

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Hamilton Mountain (100%):
Trevor Pettit
Hamilton West (20%):
Lillian Ross

Member of Parliament:
Beth Phinney

Population: 98 477
Avg Household Income 46 060
Language (Home)
English 86 460
Italian 2 820
Submitted Information
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03/07/99 A. Email:
Pettit has little chance of re-election here in Steeltown, so it will be a fight to the finish between defeated Liberal provincial candidate Dr. Bountrogianni and defeated NDP federal candidate Christine Charlton. This is traditional NDP territory - Charlton's husband Brian represented the area for nearly twenty years, and the riding has gone NDP federally as well, with Ian Deans and Marion Dewar. If the NDP picks up a seat in Hamilton it will be this one.
03/13/99 OEP Email:
Hamilton Mountain is NOT traditional NDP territory. Liberal candidates Marie Bountrogianni lost to Pettit by less than 3% of the vote in 1995. NDP came in a distant third. (more than 10% away from Pettit) If Pettit is to be replaced, it will be replaced by a Liberal.
03/23/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
Actually, Hamilton Mountain IS traditional NDP territory with Ian Deans representing this riding provincially or federally throughout the 70s and 80s. What lost it (federally) for the NDP was parachuting the Mayor of Ottawa (Marion Dewar) as a candidate. Even so, she won one time.
03/26/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Basically, a 3-way rematch, with Chris Charlton subbing for her husband, and I'm torn either way. Thanks to powerful organizations and candidates (Ian Deans, Brian Charlton) Ham Mtn has had an illustrious NDP history. However, of all the Hamilton ridings it is the most suburban and hence the least "typically" NDP; furthermore, it is also the fastest growing, and the newest neighbourhoods to the south are those least likely to go with the New Democrats. True, Pettit's more of a sitting duck than Domenic Agostino, but Bountrogianni was no slouch in a humiliating year for the Liberals, while the voters delivered B. Charlton one of the more surprisingly sound NDP defeats (partly out of mercy, perhaps, as he was suffering heart problems). Chris Charlton seeks to rebuild the family political name, but keep in mind the symbolism of her finishing fourth--a very close fourth, but fourth nonetheless--in the '97 federal election. I doubt that'll faze the NDP, especially if they have the critical endorsements on-side; besides, they still hold the long-term advantage. But who would have thought, a few years ago, that the old lunch-bucket eat'em raw Mackenzie family fiefdom of Hamilton East might be the city riding *least* likely to go NDP in 1999?
04/08/99 NOW Email:
Cooking up a Tory defeat By Enzo di Matteo
Trevor Pettit? The name doesn't exactly ring a bell, does it? You're not alone.
The salesman-turned-Tory-backbencher was another to ride in on the Tory tide in 95, winning by 1,000 votes over the NDP's Brian Charlton.
This time around, though, Pettit has to contend with his government's record on health care -- 15 per cent of the riding's residents are seniors -- while fending off two strong challengers.
Grit Marie Bountrogianni, chief psychologist for the local public school board and a psychiatry professor at McMaster, should be able to cash in on her local credentials and the sizable 15 per cent of voters of Italian origin.
Pettit will also have to fend off NDPer Chris Charlton, a senior aide to NDP leader Howard Hampton.
Site Owner's Correction:In 1995, Pettit (13,852 votes) was 1000 votes ahead of Marie Bountrogianni (12,824 votes). Brian Charlton came in third with 9,837 votes.
04/13/99 I.K. Tsanis Email:
1995 provincial election PC (36%) Liberal (34%) NDP (25%)
1997 federal election PC (18%) Liberal (46%) NDP (16%) reform (19%)
1995 provincial liberal candidate was Dr. Marie Bountrogianni (34%)
1997 federal NDP candidate was Mrs. Chris Charlton (16%)
1999 candidates Dr. Marie Bountrogianni (liberal), Chris Charlton (NDP)
04/14/99 Toronto Star Email:
New and desperate politics in Hamilton by Ian Urquhart
In Hamilton Mountain, incumbent Tory Trevor Pettit is pitted against Liberal Marie Bountrogianni, chief psychologist for the local public school board, and New Democrat Chris Charlton, a former aide to NDP Leader Howard Hampton. The same three names were on the ballot in 1995. although it was Charlton's husband, Brian, running then for the NDP.
The anti-Tory union coalition has endorsed both Christopherson and Charlton as the most likely candidates to defeat the Tories.
Few quarrel with this assessment in Hamilton West. But in Hamilton Mountain, where Bountrogianni ran second to Pettit in 1995, there is considerable debate. Hamilton's public high school teachers have already decided to defy their provincial office and back Bountrogianni, and the Canadian Autoworkers and building trades locals are considering following suit. The United Steelworkers, meanwhile, will stick with Charlton. The split can only help Pettit.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
If this riding is going anything other than tory right now it will be Liberal. This has been the way it has swung in the past and redistribution probably has helped the Liberals the most.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
The Liberals will get this one with little difficulty. They have a strong candidate and the real opposition will probably be the NDP. Tories will have a tough time holding together any sort of mix of votes to keep it afloat.
04/21/99 HM Email:
In the previous Federal elections the NDP candidate Chris Charlton got 7,440 votes and the Liberal Candidate Beth Phinney 21,128 votes. The vote ratio is Liberal/NDP = 3/1. I do not find any logical reason for more people to vote for Chris Charlton in the provincial election. The liberal candidate is very strong with an excellent reputation. I think that the people of the Hamilton Mountain will vote for Marie. I predict that the Liberals will win this riding.
04/23/99 MW Email:
Angus Reid Polls conducted during the last two years show that NDP support is at maximum 14%. The NDP in the 1995 provincial elections got 20.6% of the total vote and the NDP candidate for the Hamilton Mountain riding Brian Charlton 25.6% of the total vote. At the current NDP support of 14% I believe that NDP is not a player in this riding and will get less than 20% of the total vote in the Hamilton Mountain riding. This is consistent with the NDP's performance in the 1997 Federal Elections where they got 16% of the total vote. The NDP candidate for the 1997 Federal election was Chris Charlton. The NDP candidate for the Provincial Election is Chris Charlton.
1995 was a very bad year for liberals although Dr. Bountrogianni she came second, lost only by 3% and got higher vote percentage than the provincial average. I predict that Hamilton Mountain riding will turn LIBERAL in the coming provincial elections.
04/28/99 Charles Base Email:
Marie Boutrogaianni came within a few hundred votes of winning this riding last time. The new riding makes it so much easier for her to pull in more of the traditional Liberals supporters among the Italian and Greek communities that now make up an even larger part of this riding. Tory Trevor Petit came in on the Tory wave in 1995 and will go out on it this time. He will not be a factor. The Liberals also caught a break when the NDP nominated recycled candidate Chris Charlton. Charlton is very weak and is considered an also ran because of her poor results in the last federal election. As the Tories like to put it. Chris Charlton, she just not up to the job. This means an easy victory for Marie Bountrogianni.
05/11/99 Andrew Drummond Email: prefix_16309@hotmail.com
Although it seems the Liberals will carry the day... the NDP should not yet be discounted. This is one of four ridings that the ONA is going to put significant effort into defeating the Tory, and they've chosen to back the NDP here. That will result in over 20,000 videos delivered to homes in the region with the message to vote NDP b/c they have the best chance of beating the tories. It's likely to have an impact on some Liberal voters...
05/12/99 I.K.T. Email:
ONA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY CANDIDATE ON HAMILTON MOUNTAIN. Today's Hamilton Spectator indicates that the Ontario Nurses Association is targeting 3 Hamilton area ridings that voted PC in the last election and are amongst the most vulnerable in the Province. They include Hamilton Mountain where Marie Bountrogianni is the Liberal candidate. Lisa McCaskell on the election team for the ONA indicates that the Association is NOT endorsing the NDP candidate or any Party in these ridings but rather spending a total of $200,000 on the information campaign highlighting the worsening conditions at Ontario hospitals.
05/14/99 Email:
Response to Email by Andrew Drummond.
The statement that the 20,000 videos delivered to homes by ONA will endorse the NDP is false. Mrs. Lisa McCaskell from the Political Action of ONA categorically stated that the videos do not endorse any party but state the concerns on health care from their percpective. In order to verify ONA's position call 1-416-964-8833
05/16/99 D C Email: djwcolem@kos.net
While the videos themselves do not endorse any one party; the ONA has endorsed Chris Charlton as the candidate most likely to defeat the PC's in Hamilton Mountain. This has been reported in several media reports
Site Owner's note: I personnally checked the ONA website and called the ONA office. The website indicates that the ONA believes that NDP is the strategic choice in this riding. However, they do not "endorse" any candidate or sent workers to any party.
05/17/99 D C Email:
I have just changed my prediction to 3 way. If what Mr. Chan says is true and the ONA is not endorsing Ms. Charlton or providing any other assistancce to her then all it is accomplishing by sending out 20,000 videos with no endorsement is splitting the potenital anti-Conservative vote and letting the PC's come up the middle.
05/17/99 D C Email:
This is the strangest riding I've ever lived in. The Liberals have not delivered campaign literature to my door, many residents have three signs on their property and everybody has an opinion on who will win the election. I think that the previous writer who said this is a Battle Royal is right - but its too close to call. Watch for recounts in this contest!
06/01/99 lrs Email:
I agree Liberals should win- and Regional Chairman asking voters to not vote Tory but vote strategically- how can you do that in this riding- NDP and Lib have firm base- if Liberals lose here- Tory majority for certain
06/02/99 Michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
Hamilton Mountain wil return one Tory due to the split in the anti-Harris forces. BTW This returned MPP will be added as a junior member of cabinet responsible for Hamilton.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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