1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Kevin Flynn
Progressive Conservative Party:
Gary Carr MPP
New Democratic Party:
Sean Cain
Family Coalition Party:
Adrian Ratelle
Natural Law Party:
Linda Antonichuk

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Halton Centre (33%):
Terence Young
Oakville South (87%):
Gary Carr

Member of Parliament:
Bonnie Brown

Population: 100 833
Avg Household Income 77 219
Language (Home)
English 90 120
Portuguese 1 985
Submitted Information
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02/26/99 Basil Alexander Email: alexanbs@mcmaster.ca
As a long time resident of Oakville I am confident that this riding will go to the Progressive Conservative Party. All reports indicate that Terrence Young will be the Tory Candidate in our riding. He is very popular among the middle class yuppie population look for tax cuts and deficit reduction. Oakville will give two thumbs up to Mike Harris in the next election
02/26/99 Frank L. Email:
The battle between the two tories is going to kill the PC chances in this riding. The Liberal candidate (it appears it will be a popular, fomer NDP, town councillor whose name escapes me at the moment)is going to to collect NDP support as well as Liberal and slide in while the nastiness between the two Tories continues throughout the election. Young (the nun berating, teacher attacking, holyer-than-thow trained seal of an MPP) and Carr (I'll say and do anything to win) have got to be two of the worst MPPs in the Harris government. They both need to go back to private life and give somebody else a chance. The NDP will be lucky to find a candidate in Oakville. Look for the tory nomination loser to run as an independent.
02/26/99 Andrew Smith Email: 4adas@qlink.queensu.ca
Oakville-South went Liberal in '87, Tory in '90 and '95. Part of Halton-Centre is being added to the riding. This riding switched from Liberal to Tory in '95. Two incumbent Tories may run against each other. Very interesting. The candidates for the Liberal nomination are strong; Kevin Flynn a councillor will likely win it, in my humble opinion.
03/06/99 A. Email:
This is Oakville, the archetypical upper middle class 905-belt community. If the Tories can't win here, they're in big trouble. Terence Young in a walk.
Too Close
03/14/99 Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
A lot of those middle class voters are CAW members who work at the Oakville auto plant. While conservatively inclined they don't like Harris' anti-labour policies and will not vote Tory this time.
04/14/99 Email:
Point one - Gary Carr won the nomination in a cakewalk. This guy was able to win in 1990 when no one else could! The Tories are running more than 30 points ahead of the Grits in the 905 belt. If the Tories can't win this riding with a strong candidate like Carr - then they'll get blown out of the water province wide. A guaranteed win for Carr and Harris.
04/14/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Carr's the nominee--just as well; he's the senior member, his traditional deep-blue constituency outweighs Young's north-of-QEW suburban fringe, and he lacks Young's offputting moral-crusade fervour. And CAW or no CAW, it'd be highly unusual for Oakville, out of all 905 ridings, to reject the PCs (although it did so in '87, and would have within these boundaries in '90). One of the safer ones, and having a PC maverick running rather than a moral zealot won't hurt. The Liberals can build upon their usual bases such as the Kerr-Dorval-Morden "poor side of town" and hope, hope, hope--but I reckon they're as likely to gain this from the PCs as the federal PCs were to gain this from the federal Grits in '97. And this *was* one of their targets...
04/14/99 Toronto Star Email:
Oakville's Carr wins by Theresa Boyle
Gary Carr will carry the Progressive Conservative banner for the new riding of Oakville in the upcoming provincial election. Carr received 651 votes last night in a bitterly contested nomination battle against Terrence Young, who had 432 votes. Young was elected MPP for Halton Centre in 1995...The new riding of Oakville - considered a safe Tory seat - also encompasses the former riding of Oakvill South, which Carr has represented since 1990...
04/15/99 B Email:
The rejection of "moral zealot" and maverick Terrence Young will result in many of his supporters and campaign workers sitting on their hands during the campaign. This, combined with the CAW and teachers strategically backing the Liberals in this riding will make Oakville a riding to watch on election day. Oakville may well be one of the 15 ridings the Opposition has to take from the Tories in order to defeat the government. Also, NDP candidate Sean Cain is a founding member of the left-wing Socialist Caucus within the NDP. His Marxist rhetoric will drive a number of usual NDP voters to the Liberals. All these factors add up to a likely Liberal victory.
04/15/99 B. Email:
The Tories will win this one. There are not a lot of CAW workers who live in Oakville. If they did they should support the Tories. They have never had it so good.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
This riding was close for the tories federally. when you combine the federal tory and reform support in the area, there's a whopping majority of voters that have NO interest in the NDP and very little in the provincial Liberals that they can't get more of from Mike Harris. Besides that, the tory candidate will be strong. The best shot here is for the Liberals who have a minute shot at getting it. The NDP don't have a whole lot of hope, but the candidate might be a dark horse.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
This riding will stay Progressive Conservative. The federal results sort of show this. More convincing though is that there are few Auto workers really living in the riding that could perhaps whift it more Liberal, the Liberals will place a very strong second.
04/22/99 SB Email:
I must confess I know next to nothing about this riding but what I do know is the NDP candidate. His Marxist rants should drive the majority NDP support there is to the Liberals. As an active New Democrat I know that if I lived in this riding I would have to vote Liberal, but I wouldn't like it.
04/26/99 PHA Email:
There are three tangents in this riding that might help the Liberals win a Tory leaning riding.
1. The Liberals would not have a shot had the NDP not nominated a kid. In a tight race this might make a difference
2. And the Liberals need a decent McGuinty showing (recent poll).
3. Furthermore, there is a lot of dissention in Oakville about school closings and the moulds in the school portables which might lead to a high turnout in the Liberal strongholds.
Clearly this is an interesting riding to watch. As dont, forget, Oakville does not like to be an opposition riding.
04/26/99 Leith R.A. Coghlin Email: lcoghlin@home.com
People I shall give you an equation: 905-belt+70,000 average income+bedroom community= Tory walk. Tories would have to crash and burn provincially if they were to lose a riding like Oakville.
05/06/99 R. Murray Email: rodmurr@total.net
Gary Carr is a very fine person, but his re-election literature expounds the way he stood up against the government. The irony is that the voters of Oakville didn't wan't many of the Tory Policies (eg. over 80% voted against downloading). Carr voted against it. In other words, a vote for Carr is a vote against the Tories. Why not just vote Liberal? If Mr. Young wre running, the Liberals would have an easy win based on his gaffes.The northern third of the riding (old Halton Centre) WAS a Liberal riding in the previous 2 elections.
05/19/99 Email:
Watching this riding's election macninery at work was like watching paint dry for the first ten days. It was as if neither candidate was interested in a win. However, over the past few days the grit signs have made tory presence in the riding almost non existant. Gary Carr looks like he's getting the pay back from the back room boys (Long/Noble) for not toeing the party line. Carr's not known here for any interest in his riding and, at times was almost indifferent to local issues. Carr's local political background has positioned him well to deliver a Liberal seat here.
05/21/99 L. Habs Email: ludihabs@pathcom.com
Gary Carr may have angered the Tories by speaking out against some Harris policies but he never broke ranks and always voted with the Tories on important issues. Carr wants to win, no matter what his credibility is. Flynn knows Oakville well and his brother is a high school department head. He will have the support of the large number of people dissatisfied with the the PC's handling of education. Oakville does not want schools closed and wants the mould problems in portables fixed. There is no credible NDP candidate to cause a three-way split so Flynn may pick up most of the NDP vote. Flynn also has worked Oakville as a councillor for many years and can count on large degrees of support from the disgruntled educational community.
05/29/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Many people are commenting on Sean Cain's candidacy; however, since the NDP achieved less than 10% of the vote here in '95, I doubt strategic voting'll make much of a difference in the final tally,
05/31/99 PSH Email:
Flynn seems to be winning the sign war and there are Liberal signs appearing even in "Olde Oakville" which has traditionally been staunchly conservative. The high average income level makes the Tory tax cuts popular here but the Liberals seem to have a lot of volunteers on the ground and this riding could be very close.

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Last Updated 31st May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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