1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
St. Catharines

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Jim Bradley MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Tom Froese MPP
New Democratic Party:
Gordon Coggins
Green Party:
Doug Woodard
Natural Law Party:
Helene Darisse
Ron Walker

Incumbent (old riding composition):
St. Catharines (100%):
Jim Bradley
Lincoln (10%):
Frank Sheehan
St. Catharines-Brock (51%):
Tom Froese

Member of Parliament:
Walt Lastewka

Population: 105 299
Avg Household Income 44 130
Language (Home)
English 94 750
Submitted Information
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02/22/99 Burke Christian Email: external@msu.mcmaster.ca
This is one of the safer Liberal seats in the province. Jim Bradley is very popular in this area. Tom Frose of the Tories declined to run in this riding as the chance for victory was slim against Bradley.
03/06/99 DG Email:
Frose apparently is going to run, still this should be Bradley's easily.
03/07/99 Email:
Froese could take this riding only if there is a strong NDP candidate. St. Catharines is a big union town, and the biggest factory in the city, GM, is shutting its doors. The unionized workers will vote against any Tory candidate and instead split their vote between Bradley and the NDP candidate and Froese will come up the middle. A close race, but Froese will squeak out a victory.
03/20/99 A.L. Email:
CAW's tactical voting strategy will through union support to the Liberals in this riding. No chance of the Tories winning in a vote split.
03/25/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Jim Bradley lose? Not if he and his machine can help it--and it it's a machine that allowed him to survive virtual SW Ontario Liberal wipeouts in both '90 and '95. Besides, the surviving parts of Froese's old riding are PC-weakest; toss in a few Frank Magazine rumours, and you can probably call Froese toast. Unless, of course, he can parlay good local Reform results into something...
04/22/99 Email:
The people of St. Catharines always insist on their candidates living in the city. Tom Froese lives in Virgil. Tom has also been dogged by a number of very unpleasant stories about his personal life and this will not play well in St. Catharines. Jim Bradly will win this in a walk. Tom Froese is toast.
04/25/99 Email:
Anybody who thinks Froese is going to win this riding is on mind-altering drugs. The fact that the last Tory candidate in 1995 has gone out of his way to put distance between himself and the party he ran for speaks volumes. Jim Bradley has been an active MPP here since 1977--there is no chance of him losing. And the NDP candidate is a dud with no union connections so there goes the split vote theory. Froese has a better shot of winning the 649 than winning this riding.
04/28/99 Ike Thomas Email:
You know I can't keep up with Tory Tom Froese. First he said he would be running against Jim Bradley in St. Catharines. Then he said his family was more important than politics so he would drop out to spend more time with them. Now I guess Tom's family is not so important because now Tom is running again. It really doesn't matter anyway because Jim Bradley is going to win St. Catharines because he has spent years taking care of the people of this city and people here remember that at election time. Jim Bradley will do well in the new part of this riding including the downtown core and in Merritton. This will be one of the biggest wins in Bradley's career.
05/06/99 St. Catherines Standard Email:
Bradley only MPP with safe riding by Doug Herod
St. Catharines: Unless residents have suddenly grown tired of him, Liberal Jim Bradley should win this votefest with relative ease. He's withstood Tory and NDP sweeps in the past, the best measure there is of a local candidate's personal popularity. Bradley should also benefit this time around by a serious collapse in the riding's NDP vote. I suspect a significant number of NDP supporters will switch to Bradley to help ensure that Tory candidate Tom Froese doesn't get elected.
Froese, a government backbencher from St. Catharines-Brock, lost his riding when the boundary maps were redrawn a couple of years ago. He had little profile outside of Niagara-on-the-Lake before being elected and was a minor player at Queen's Park this past term.
05/31/99 Michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
Look for a possible Tory upset in this riding? Why? 1,new boudaries include part of the former Lincoln and St Kitts-Brock with their strong Tory area and IF there is a swing towards the gov then it will hurt Bradley. Combined this with a right wing Family group targeting Bradley with brochures being passed out in conservative fundamentalist churches. Any of swing towards Harris and he is toast.

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Last Updated 31st May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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