1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Stoney Creek

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Chris Phillips
Progressive Conservative Party:
Brad Clark
New Democratic Party:
Robert Barlow
Family Coalition Party:
Phillip Lees
Natural Law Party:
Sue Marchand
Paul Lane

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Wentworth East (100%):
Ed Doyle
Lincoln (25%):
Frank Sheehan

Member of Parliament:
Tony Valeri

Population: 98 198
Avg Household Income 53 032
Language (Home)
English 84 770
Italian 2 740
Submitted Information
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03/05/99 I.MacFarlane Email: imacfarlane@accel.net
Strong young liberal candidate Chris Philips is well organized and will take this seat.
04/15/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Still a hazy case at the moment, whether due to the lack of an incumbent (Ed Doyle's retiring after one term) or to the indeterminate identity of Hamilton's eastern 'burbs. If Frank Magazine's right (yeah sure), there's also a bit of haze behind Brad Clark's candidacy. If the Hamilton area's set to deep-six the Tories, Phillips is very well placed strategically--much of suburban Stoney Creek has the undercurrent of Hamilton's "Woodbridge", where the city's suburbanizing Italo-Catholics can put forward some pretty heavy Liberal polls. (And his neighbour Domenic Agostino can provide residual campaign strength.) The Tories are normally best off in Glanbrook Township, old Stoney Creek village, and the newly added town of Grimsby (where Phillips, however, resides). And true to Greater Hamilton, the NDP's also had a very good--perhaps surprisingly so, for such suburban turf--local history, from Ian Deans and and Colin Issacs to Rae-era Kormos compatriot Mark Morrow. However, the resounding scale of Morrow's '95 defeat may mean the NDP's now more of a wild card than a genuine contender--still, keep a careful eye leftward.
04/19/99 Q. Email: aquirk@canada.com
Although it would be nice to simply say that the riding will go Liberal because of the strength of the ethnic population in Hamilton, I would offer the following. The new riding includes Grimsby (which has consistently voted Tory since confederation) and the entire township of Glanbrook which is a strong Reform/Tory area from federal results. Couple this with an increasing personal wealth in the Stoney Creek area and a departure from traditional ethnic voting paterns (The Polish community is upset with the Liberals for a percieved snub of their president by Jean Chretien) and I think that Stoney Creek is a safe seat for the Tories in 1999.
Chris Phillips has not been visible since his nomination, while Brad Clark has consistent newspaper coverage and has been attending many community based events.
04/29/99 G.R. Brown Email: georgbrown@excite.com
As a resident of Stoney Creek riding, I believe the Liberal candidate will win the election here. The PC candidate was a Liberal then changed to the PC shortly before the PC nomination meeting. This has reduced his credibility. As well, although the PC candidate has waged war against a local dump site, it was the PC government that permited the company to develop the dump site. Again, the credibility of the government is at question. This will neutralise the PC's candidate ability to exploit that issue.
The Liberal candidate has been very visible in the riding and has the full backing of the federal Liberal machine. A recent fund raiser with Paul Martin Jr. has raised the funds necessary to fight a strong campaign. This is clearly a riding that the Liberals intend to win. Based on a local poll published in the Globe and Mail, the Liberals are leading in Hamilton-Wentworth by 8% over the PC's...the momentum is with the Liberals locally.
05/14/99 I.A. Luksic Email:
Phillips has a well organised group of volunteers behind him. There is a lot of enthusiasm with his campaign. Previously uninvolved voters are coming into the office asking for signs and volunteer sheets. Both the ethnic heart of the riding, which is heavily Italian and Croatian have come on side with the campaign. As for Grimsby, the Liberals are making real inroads since Phillips lives there and the Tories almost shut down their hospital. Clark's campaign is nowhere to be seen yet in Glanbrook, the traditional Tory heartland of the riding. Furthermore, Clark has alienated long-time Tories who are sitting out of this election. As for Clark's anit-dump coalition, many have left his side due to his flip-flop and are actively assisting Phillips. While the election will be close in this riding, since many will vote Tory without knowing about the weakness of Clark, I feel that this riding will go Liberal.
05/19/99 Bruce Stickle Email:
Chris Phillips looks like the most promising candidate in this riding. He has my vote, and if the signs in the riding and the attitudes of my aquaintences in this riding are an indicator of the outcome in this riding Chris Phillips will win by a country mile. If the province follows this trend we all will start to be winners again. Thankyou for taking the time to read some of my thoughts and feelings.
06/01/99 lrs Email:
I will go out on limb and say Tories win a close battle- polls in this area seem to point to stronger Pc vote and if nDP vote not too low - then problems for Liberals
06/02/99 Michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
Stoney Creek attracted the liberal leader on the last day due to internal polls showing a Clark victory. Another Tory seat.Grimsby is very strong for the Tories and all the rural space in between too.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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