1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Jerry Boyle
Progressive Conservative Party:
Gerry Martiniuk MPP
New Demorcratic Party:
Gary Gibson
Green Party:
Kathleen Morton
Family Coalition Party:
Al Smith

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Cambridge (100%):
Gerry Martiniuk
Brant-Haldimand (9%):
Peter Preston
Kitchener-Wilmot (6%):
Gary Leadston

Member of Parliament:
Janko Peric

Surrounding Ridings:
Kitchener Centre

Population: 105 581
Avg Household Income 49 233
Language (Home)
English 93 390
Portuguese 4 435
Submitted Information
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03/09/99 A. Email:
Gerry Martiniuk made a real fool of himself as part of the "Crime Commission". This riding has been held by several New Democrats since the 60's (most recently Mike Farnan). Dr. Gary Gibson, a physician who has a large family practice in the area, is poised to run a strong campaign.
03/23/99 Email: 4bh7@qlink.queensu.ca
Cambridge is one of those ridings that swung sharply to the Harris Tories in 1995. Martinuk beat long-time NDP member Mike Farnan by an almost 2-to-1 margin. Furthermore, The Cambridge PC Association is the richest in the PC Party, with over 200,000 in the bank. With the NDP at 14% and without Farnan they have to consider this a long shot.
04/01/99 D.Cavaco Email:
The Liberal Candidate, Jerry Boyle, will bring Cambridge back to the provincial Grits. Boyle has the full support of Cambridge's huge Portuguese population, where he has made major inroads. As well, many NDP voters will be attracted to Jerry Boyle because of his longtime involvement with the union sector. With the Liberals high in the polls, coupled with Mike Harris' Achilles Heel on Health Care and Education, Cambridge will be a riding that the Tories won't be able to hold onto. Cambridge's diverse society won't fall into the politics of polarization that Harris used so effectively in the last election.
04/04/99 L. Coghlin Email:
Cambridge is a Tory riding and will remain so in the next election. Make no mistakes, there will be a tough challenge to ensure those satisfied with the Common Sense Revolution come out en-masse to vote for Gerry and the Tories. This riding hasn't been Liberal provinically in more than 40 years, and Boyle is not well known. The NDP has a very credible candidate, but the strong union influence in Cambridge (which kept Farnan and a few other NDPers in) has not rallied strongly behind Gibson. If the Tories lose a riding like Cambridge, which always has a clean, well-run Tory machine, it will signal a major message.
04/06/99 T. McAfee Email:
Being a Cambridge resident for almost 18 years, I have seen the City grow into a major centre, diversify in population and change from a industrial centre to a highly technical one. This is no longer a small town that can be won with simple ideas. That is why I believe Jerry Boyle will win the riding of Cambridge. He has the background to bring people of different income levels, opposing viewpoints and ethnic backgrounds together to make Cambridge even greater than it has become. The Tories do not have a hold on Cambridge. The NDP certainly won't win here, especially post-Farnan. Boyle is in a great position to win the riding of Cambridge, a city no longer suited to be in the shadow of K-W or the small town policies of the Tories.
04/07/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Don't overstate the record of the Cambridge Tory machine; it may be "clean, well-run", but it did land third in both 1987 (with an incumbent MPP) and 1990 (with a lost deposit), and Gerry Martiniuk in 1995 got 47% to Mike Farnan's 32%, hardly "almost 2-to-1". On the other hand, Farnan *did* best the Liberal candidate that year by *over* 2-to-1; while added territory diminishes the outsize advantage somewhat, it would appear that were the opposition to act tactically according to past strength, the NDP has pride of place in Cambridge (and it's also one of the weaker federal Liberal ridings). In fact, current local PC organizational strength owes plenty to the 90s Reform revolution; like Oshawa, this was a major centre for labour's dramatic left-to-right shift, and Cambridge gave Reform one of its five best near-victories in Ontario in 1993. And as in Oshawa, this should be a critical test for NDP's ability to render lunchbucket ReformaToryism a passing fad--Farnan's 1997 federal run, where he got 20% and dampered Reform support considerably, gives cause for hope. But Farnan's reputation as part of the NDP's social right wing was the right bait for conservative unionists; and that's where Gary Gibson's sexual orientation could be a bit of a sore point. Or a brave risk, if he can get the "Farnan conservatives" on-side anyway--the more likely anti-Tory alternative is a split opposition, as it would take something unforeseen like a McGuinty landslide or absolute NDP black hole to elect a Liberal in Cambridge, unless Jerry Boyle turns out to be "something different". And however fat their kitty nowadays, the PCs' long-term record here remains marginal at best, so nobody (least of all non-complacent opposition forces) should view Cambridge as roll-over-and-die safe...
04/11/99 CNG Email:
If there's any question over whether Gary Gibson can get "Farnan conservatives" on side, it should be answered by the fact that Mike Farnan himself recruited Dr. Gibson as a candidate.
04/12/99 L.C. Email:
I just thought it was worth pointing out that the submission above (D.Cavaco) repeats, practically word for word, the intro on the Cambridge Liberals website. I don't have a problem with that - but I think people should be able to identify something for what it is. Clearly everyone has biases - but isn't there some way of identifying postings which are clearly partisan electioneering?!? (Have the PCs and NDP been invited to write a piece?) As for my 2 cents worth - Cambridge has a long history of PC/NDP representation and despite the growth and changes in recent years, I still believe these are the two parties to watch. It's worth remembering that in 1987 when David Peterson's Liberals swept the province....they lost in Cambridge. If they couldn't win then, with an extremely popular mayor as their candidate,,I don't see them doing it this time.
04/14/99 A.L. Email: 3arb@qlink.queensu.ca
I agree. This riding has been NDP, provincially and federally, on and off since at least the 70s. Certainly premature to count the NDP out here.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Tories favour all ways in terms of redistribution. We all know that most ridings play two different tunes with Federal and Provincial elections. The NDP will come second, but it won't be that close.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Garry Martinuk would have to screw up big time to loose in a riding that's picked up more parts of other tory ridings. The whole point is that he hasn't had too many. It will be tough for him to beat out a strong NDP candidate, but the election will see how true that is. Watch for a possible Liberal move up the middle. PC's have it by a hair.
04/28/99 Tom Patterson Email:
The NDP in Cambridge are dreaming in technocolour if they believe that their party has a chance in this riding. The Farnon days for the NDP are long gone and this is a two way race between the Liberals and the Tories. Jerry Boyle has almost all the union support in Cambridge for one reason. Boyle is a union activist. Dr. Gary Gibson would not recognize a union meeting if he tripped over one. This is why many traditional NDP union members support Boyle. The Cambridge NDP must realize that their party is at 14 % in the poles and are not a factor in this race. Boyle will do very well in all candidate meetings on a stage with Tory, Gerry Martiniuk who is not much of a speaker. This combined with a powerful campaign team behind Jerry Boyle means victory for the Grits. Cambridge NDP supports please remember, in Cambridge a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Tories.
04/29/99 Ron Sexsmith Email:
I have to think that Jerry Boyle is going to pull all the old NDP vote over to his side in the campaign. The Farnon NDP people are working on the Boyle campaign because they know a doctor is not sensitive to labour issues. Put all of this together and Jerry is the winner.
05/09/99 Leith R.A. Coghlin Email: lcoghlin@home.com
The NDP hasn't a chance in Cambridge. Dippers will try to use past elections to divert the fact that the majority of their support has moved to the Liberals. Liberal candidate Jerry Boyle won on the second ballot by bringing in two bus loads of unionists, and defeated a former mayor for the nomination. The NDP in Cambridge is dead, and while I will agree that Gibson is a credible candidate, the Farnan faction no longer exists and the union influence has moved to the Liberals. Coupled with Cambridge's growth and the middle-class heavily supporting Martiniuk, the Dippers are done. The race is between Boyle and Martiniuk clearly. While you cannot judge the outcome of the election based on lawn signs, I have seen two Liberal, one NDP and dozens of Tory signs. Boyle is not the dynamic speaker that Tom Patterson believes him to be. Martiniuk is a straight shooter, tells it like it is, and is extremely personable. His campaign has been canvassing for more than a month and has seen numerous litterature drops. His campaign office has been open for a month, his adds have been seen in two Cambridge newspapers continuously for months, and he has hosted several meet-and-greet events with constituents this year. I haven't seen or heard anything about Boyle -save for two small lawn signs, nor has anyone Liberal arrived on my doorstep. Martiniuk simply has more going for him than Boyle and Gibson. Again the race is between Boyle and Martiniuk with the NDP well-off the map. Also, please remember, people that vote for Boyle will be voting for him not because he is Liberal, not because they agree with him or Liberal policies, it is because they are angry at Harris and/or Martiniuk. Enough said.
05/10/99 RM Email: armessing@hotmail.com
As with Cambridge the NDP are out of the running this time despite their roots here. Strictly a Liberal-Tory contest with the Liberal having an edge if he can get enough union people and NDPers to vote strategically.
05/21/99 S. Falkiner Email:
Born and raised in Cambridge, and there are alot of us, I predict a close race between all three candidates. I haven't heard alot of good things about our present P.C. incumbent and I haven't heard anything about our Liberal candidate at all. On the other hand, Dr. Gary Gibson, is a very well-known and respected doctor in our area and I think that a great deal of voters will swing back to NDP based on familiarity with the candidate and the belief that he will look out for the best interests of Cambridge. Lets not underestimate the power of community ideology in Cambridge.
05/24/99 lrs Email:
A drive through the riding now shows a visible PC sign campaign and others I spoke to who live or work in riding seems to concede PCs will win here - probable split opposition vote will help PC candidate- The fact that the Liberals are in a clear second place in provincial polls and and the anti-Harris coalition is backing DR. Gibson will cause anti- harris voters difficulty throwing support to one candidate.
05/26/99 TAR Email:
I've been waffling between voting for the Liberals or the NDPs - the Conservatives aren't even on the radar map for me. Having watched the televised all-candidates debate on our local Rogers Cable station last evening (May 25) my thoughts are ....
1. that the Conservative candidate is arrogant and based on many of his comments especially regarding drug testing of social assistance recipients, he just doesn't get it! After watching the debate, I don't know how anyone could, in good conscience, vote for Gerry Martiniuk. And not that it really matters, but why didn't he wear a tie?
2. None of the candidates expressed any passion for being MPP. I was left with the feeling that none of them REALLY want the job, but that they'd do an okay job if elected.
3. Dr. Gary Gibson, NDP, had the most reasoned and well-informed approach to issues. He certainly seemed the most well-read on the issues.
4. I feel a little more knowledgeable about Liberal candidate Jerry Doyle but still am very uncertain about Dalton McGuinty's ability to lead and his funding formula. And in the end, I'm still left juggling my vote between the Liberals and NDPs. I want to dump the Conservatives so what vote is the best strategic vote in Cambridge??? I'm still not sure.
05/28/99 C. H. Email:
I must state upfront that I am an anti-PC voter and last time around I voted PC. I am not a member of any of the parties and in fact have voted for all three.
However, I have deliveried many Liberal lawn signs around this riding and have noticed many more NDP and PC residential lawn signs than Liberal. As well, I have recently watched an all-candidate meeting on television and attended another in person. I must say that the NDP candidate appears to be the most informed, learned and reasoned local candidate of them all. As such I am leaning my vote toward the NDP candidate here in Cambridge. I may not support the NDP Party platform, but my best local Candidate to represent my Riding appears to be Dr. (whatshisname) Gibson. If the anti-Harris vote splits, the arrogant (as I have also observed in person, but not directed at me) PC candidate gets in. Some definitive and credible non-partisan direction for the anti-Harris vote means not spliting the vote and the election of an NDP MPP here in Cambridge.
05/28/99 Bill Email:
Jerry Boyle. If you listen to him at the meetings he is the only one with answers that have some substance. He has represented people most of his life and it's domonstrated when he debates.
05/30/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I was through here recently, and impressed by the NDP sign presence even on some pretty upscale streets--Gibson's definitely in the race.
05/31/99 B.C.H. Email:
This riding is politically out of control. The constant swings from right to left pass through the Liberal middle so quickly that it is hard to focus on them. However, consider that Boyle, with his strong labour roots, defeated the popular Claudette Millar. Boyle was nominated by red-Tories who have joined the Liberal Party. Anything is possible with this one..
06/01/99 Michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
If we lived in a just universe where the best person is chosen,then the NDP with the good Doctor would win. However, we do not live in a just universe and the Tories will take this in their general victory on June 3.
06/01/99 Email:
The NDP is falling back in province-wide polls (Hampton's Bates comments were reckless). The ebbing of general NDP support will put this riding back in the Tory column. Further, your numbers of safe Liberal and NDP seats are way too high. The Conservatives are still on track for at least 60 seats. If the Tories infact pick up at least 45% of the vote (as polls have consistently forecast since almost the beginning of the campaign,)a Conservative majority is guarenteed.
06/01/99 lrs Email:
my prediction 8 days ago is supported by Record poll- anti- Harris vote split why did McGuinty waste time here at end of campaign?
06/01/99 B.C.H. Email:
It is amazing that polls are all over the place with this riding. It has been refreshing to read the candid comments on this site...for all the ridings I've checked.Bravo! I still believe Cambridge will surprise some as people realize that strong leadership can be colleagial as well as dictatorial beyond belief.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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