1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Larry O'Neill
Progressive Conservative Party:
Marcel Beaubien MPP
New Democratic Party:
Jim Lee
Freedom Party:
Wayne Forbes

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Chatham-Kent (40.6%):
Jack Carroll
Lambton (63%):
Marcel Beaubien
Middlesex (34%):
Bruce Smith

Member of Parliament:
Rose-Marie Ur

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: 96 182
Avg Household Income 45 251
Language (Home)
English 90 925
Submitted Information
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02/21/99 John Ashton Email: ashton@ebtech.net
Just for your information, in 1995 Lambton-Kent-Middlesex voted
PC: 15,347 = 38.22%
LIB: 12,228 = 30.45%
NDP: 8,828 = 21.98%
Too Close
03/23/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Here's one to monitor--the Ipperwash riding. And considering Marcel Beaubien's contentious role relative to the Ipperwash crisis, it might be a pretty interesting one to watch. Though it could work either way; Reform swept a lot of the Bosanquet polls near the Ipperwash Reserve in 1997...
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Marcel Beaubien might have the benefit of some of the redistribution, but the Liberals will probably squeak by because of the candidate's noteriety in the new riding.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email:
Larry O'Neill is a string candidate and has organization in place with the federal Liberal association. NDP can't be counted out here either though.
04/29/99 Patrick Boulos Email: pcboulos@hotmail.com
This will be close. The NDP can't be ruled out here. there is a risk that the Liberals/NDP may split the vote in this riding. It's still early.
05/07/99 Jeff Email: jbennett@execulink.com
I think Larry O'Neill is on course to take this one away from Marcel. Marcel is a nice guy and very polished but he has handled the Ipperwash situation and the closing of the Petrolia Hospital badly which I believe will cost him support in his home base of Petrolia proper and North Lambton county. Strathroy (pop: ~ 12000) is the largest centre in the riding and is heavily Liberal with the federal candidate in 1997 Rose-Marie Ur winning 53% of the vote here. These factors combined with the loathing for Marcel and the Tories by teachers, nurses etc I think should be enough to push O'Neill over the top. But as it is only Day 3, this prediction is subject to change.
05/11/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Just because Rose-Marie Ur was elected here federally, has nothing to do with how well Larry O'Neil is going to do. I remember when Reycraft was a supposed shoe-in for Middlesex, but it didn't quite work out that way with Smith taking the seat. Not to mention Beaubien should still have the support of the westerly portions of this riding.
05/11/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
To the writer of the previous post....his Reycraft reminders are beginning to wear a little thin. Mr. Nicpon should remember that the Middlesex riding that Doug Reycraft lost to Bruce Smith in 1995 is wholly different than this Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seat and as the boundaries are a carbon copy of the federal map, Rose-Marie Ur's vote totals become very important in gauging just how many people are prepared to vote Liberal if they are given reason to. There is no doubting that Marcel Beaubien's core of support is in the North section of Lambton county, but I would remind Mr. Nicpon of the Ontario Government's poor handling of the Ipperwash situation (OPP etc.) and of the debacle over the closing of The Charlotte Eleanor Englehart Hospital in Petrolia, which Marcel supported, did nothing to win him support in his home town. Throw in the Strongly Liberal areas around Strathroy, Alvinston, Paincourt, and Glencoe along with all the interest groups that the Tories have alienated, and I think you've got a recipe for a Liberal victory.
One thing for certain is, given the apparent weakness of the NDP candidate, Jim Lee, who appears so far to find it difficult to remain awake or at least congnizant and All Candidate's Meetings; Larry O'Neill's chances are certainly improved.
05/14/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
In response to Mr. Bennett; You are relying too much on the success of the federal liberals in this riding to make your prediction. While you may think that redictribution has made the Reycraft loss of '95 irrelevant; I do not believe this to be the case. 100% of the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex riding was governed by Tories after 1995; Jack Carroll, Bruce Smith and Marcel Beaubien. Neither Beaubien or Smith have made any severe political blunders to personally alienate their supporters, and the policies of the Harris government have not had the drastic effects in this area, as they have in bigger cities. As a mostly agricultural riding, in an area that has traditionally been very conservative I find it unreasonable to think that Larry O'Brian is going to take this one so easily.
05/21/99 Matt Brooks Email: brooksie23@netscape.net
The last comment regarding Marcel's support of the closing of the CEE hospital in Petrolia is totally off base. Mr. Beaubien lobbyed extremly hard to have the hospital remain open, which he accomplished. In fact the NDP health critic, Marion Boyd, praised Mr. Beaubien in the legislature regarding his stance on the closing of this particular hospital. If you are going to comment on issues please have your facts straight!
05/22/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
In response to Mr. Nicpon, speaking of getting facts straight, please note that the name of the Liberal Candidate in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is Larry O'NEILL, not Larry O'Brian. And as for scandals, in relation to Bruce Smith, does luring teenaged students away from their campuses at High School with free pizza and booze to cheer at a Tory rally not smack of at least a LITTLE impropriety to you?! And as for Mr. Beaubien I could go into things that would make you cringe, but posting such things on the internet for the whole world to read would not be appropriate.
Predicting elections is alot like trying to predict the weather, and It would be a glaring over-confidence on my part to say that Larry has this one in the bag, but I do believe that given the dynamics of the riding, the fact that all Labour organizations that traditionally support the NDP are supporting the Liberals, and the strength of Larry as a candidate in an area in which he is well known have to make for even odds at the very least.
We won't know for sure until June 3.
05/24/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Jeff, Frankly I am sick of hearing about this bus incident. Obviously the whole idea of getting students out of class for a rally wasn't that great (Thank the PC Youth Wing), but all this talk about booze and cigarettes and "luring", etc just reeks of political B.S. Liberals and NDP jump all over this one and make it sound like some pagan atrocity. Do you seriously think that Bruce Smith, or Mike Harris, dreamed up this idea that would have been political sado-massochism. This incident should in no way reflect on the integrity of Bruce Smith.... but anyway, back to Lambton-Kent-Middlesex; Don't put too much reliance on Labour Organizations. This is a very rural riding, with a lot of traditional PC support. The Liberals won't win because of organized labour, and they'll have to overcome the fact that Marcel is a well known and generally liked incumbent...
05/25/99 Erik Email:
This riding will be a close race. I think that Marcel will take it despite union intervention on behalf of the Liberals and the NDP. I think that the L-K-M riding is one of those which does not necessarily bend with the influx of TV and radio propaganda. People seem to have a more grounded feeling about what the government has done and what it hasn't. This has resulted in people on the street judging the Harris Tories on their record.
05/26/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
I have heard from some people that Mr. O'Neil, the liberal candidate, will be finding a core of his support in the Strathroy Area. Just a little bit of information; the local lunch poll in Strathroy conducted over the past couple weeks gives the Conservatives 64%, Liberals 24% and NDP 10%. Perhaps not an Angus-Reid or Ekos poll, but it still says something about Strathroy.
05/27/99 Danni Email: happypaddling@hotmail.com
At a recent all candidates meeting in Alvinston Larry O'Neill voiced his opinion that after 4 to 5 years of training teachers should not have to be tested or retrained. I find this statement mind blowing when physicians, paramedics, and the police have to retrain and be tested year after year. We put our lives in the hands of these people so it makes sense to retrain them. My question to Mr. O'Neill is "Do we not put the lives of our children in the hands of our teachers year after year?"
05/27/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
Marcel had a blowup with a member of the public at a recent All Candidates meetings in Wallaceburg when the person, a physician, questioned him on the crisis his party had created in health care. Marcel proceeded to accuse the physician of being a Liberal plant, and said he did not live in the riding which the physician later proved otherwise. Arguing with the people who have come to see you to make their decision on who to vote for is not a good way of winning votes. Marcel is worried, if he wasn't he wouldn't be so edgy. Larry O'Neill is going to win.
05/28/99 Jeff Bennett Email: jbennett@execulink.com
Is there a limit to the number of times someone can vote in a sandwich poll? Is there anything to prevent a group of people from stacking the results of a sandwich poll by buying multiple numbers of certain sandwiches? Are the Tories so desperate that they resort to SANDWICH POLLS to make their case? HA HA HA.....Larry's margin is going to be bigger than I had thought!
05/29/99 Judyt Email:
I think Marcel Beaubien has great difficulty understanding people who do not share his own narrow view of the world - and has a very short temper - so much for his representing all of the people in the riding! (Hence his outburst in Wallaceburg.) As for Danni's comments about teacher testing - I know several doctors, police officers, nurses, fire fighters, engineers, and have never heard of them being forced to take a "test" and, if found to be "unacceptable", being forced to upgrade after the school year is over. It would be a huge expenditure of money - scarce government dollars that would be better spent on things like keeping smaller schools, such as East Sombra or East Lambton S.S. open and viable. O'Neill by a nose.
05/29/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Alright, all Partisan ties aside, the prediction of this riding comes down to this: Who can win the most votes - Right? Well, it's given that Marcel has the Western part of the riding. He was a well liked mayor of Petrolia, and has worked hard for his constituents when he was MPP of Lambton. He has the support of that part of the riding hands down. In the north there may have been some question about Ipperwash, but I feel that the public supports his handling of the matter. He may have taken a hard line by saying that an inquiry would be called only if natives vacated the park and paid for the damages they incurred, but the majority of people seem to recognize that this was the right decision. (Based on northern media and just talking to citizens in the Grand Bend area) Not to mention West and North and very rural, very conservative parts of the riding, and I could tell just from being there that conservative support predominates. The question comes down to this: Who has the east? Some say that Larry O'Neill has Strathroy and area, but I fail to see this justification. (Especially in Mount Brydges and the south) If anything O'Neill and Beaubien may be tied for support there, but if they split down the middle or even if O'Neill wins Strathroy area that still shouldn't add up to the number of votes he'll be getting from the West and North. I have to take a stand on this one and give it to Beaubien.
05/30/99 Birkin Culp Email: nicpon@execulink.com
With respect, I suggest Nipcon & Bennett should go for a beer and agree to disagree. You obviously aren't going to convert one another and I get the feeling your comments are becoming personal and that animosity is growing-its not healthy and objectivity is out the window.
Why not agree to limit yourself to a 200 hundred word essay and email it directly to one another? Or agree to one more submission each prior to e-day? Besides, everyone knows this riding is going to be tight and won door-to-door not in cyberspace. Please do not be insulted by these comments, I respect you both.
05/30/99 John G. Brennan Email: jbrennan@wwdc.com
The provincial liberals have benefitted enormously from the hard work of local Liberal MP Rose-Marie Ur. Her recent voting record has earned high praise from many local Tories. Rose-Marie has been knocking on doors several days a week and is highly visible in this campaign. Many voters in Strathroy report their frustration with the current member representing this riding, Bruce Smith. Bruce has been the invisible man over the last four years and has not returned phone calls from voters who question any Tory policies. Many canvassers in Strathroy indicate that Liberal signs on private property outnumber PC signs by a margin of ten to one.
05/31/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
It's still a tough one. But two things which might tilt things in the Tories' favour: (1) the absence of the Family Coalition in one of their traditional strongholds, and (b) strategic vote or no strategic vote, the NDP's faring surprisingly well around Wallaceburg...
05/31/99 John G. Brennan Email: jbrennan@wwdc.com
The Premier came to Strathroy at 12:45 today for a closed Tory lunch at a local eatery. He was greeted by around two hundred protesters as he jumped out of his big bus. Total time visible to the crowd, one second. The number of protesters is an indication of the high level of local anti-Mike sentiment since many in the crowd had only learned of the location of the Premier's Strathroy stop Sunday evening.
05/31/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
I agree that Rose-Marie Ur is well respected in the Strathroy Area, and that her support of Larry O'Neill's campaign will be helpful for the liberals; but that is only in Strathroy. Don't forget that even if Marcel doesn't have the support of Strathroy, I would be surprised if that was near enough to give O'Neill a resounding victory. I still think that support will be outweighed by the West, and Rural areas.
05/31/99 lrs Email:
I am assuming Harris' visit indicates the Tories are in trouble - I assume NDP votre will be down quitre a bit and Liberals should benefit- a must Liberal seat to prevent PC majority
06/01/99 J.B. Email dabridgeman@home.com:
Something else to take into account: Marcel Beaubien is praised by the farming community in this riding for his involvement in the provincial tax exemption on farming supplies. This should make an impact considering much of the riding is rural.
06/01/99 Pauline Email:
John G. Brennan! I think you better check your eyesight because when I walked by the "Mike Harris" lunch I seem to only recall approximately 25 protestors (why weren't they at work) greeting Mike Harris as he stepped off his bus in Strathroy on may 31, 1999.
06/01/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
Firstly, with all due respect Mr. Brennan, I was also at the Mike Harris visit to Strathroy, and there was no where near 200 protesters in attendance. Finally, I think I have made my reasons for PC prediction fairly clear before, but the last thing I would like to add is simply that I can see history repeating itself here. In '95 everyone thought Liberal Candidate Doug Reycraft was in for sure. His signs outnumbered PC signs by a fair margin, and he seemed to have Strathroy all wraped up. However, behold, it was not he who won, rather it was PC candidate Bruce Smith. In fact, Smith won early in the evening with a fair number of votes. Why did this happen? Aside from overconfident liberal projections, it was mroe than likely the strong rural presence in Middlesex. Polls show that rural areas will vote PC, and now L-K-M has even more rural area than before. I can't see the future being 20/20 here(pun), but I still believe Beaubien should win.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

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