1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Scarborough Southwest

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Adrian Heaps
Progressive Conservative Party:
Dan Newman MPP
New Democratic Party:
Michael Yorke
Green Party:
Barbara Schaefer
Family Coalition Party:
Wiktor Borkowski
Natural Law Party:
Lawrence Corp

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Scarborough Centre (56%):
Dan Newman
Scarborough East (6%):
Steve Gilchrist
Scarborough West (71%):
Jim Brown

Member of Parliament:
Tom Wappel

Surrounding Ridings:
Beaches-East York
Don Valley East
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough East

Population: 101 551
Avg Household Income 45 630
Language (Home)
English 78 680
Chinese 3 615
Submitted Information
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Too Close
03/10/99 I.MacFarlane Email:
Dan Newman is a Great Target for the healthcare issue since he is Liz Witmers deputy currently. In a toronto riding he is more vurnerable on that issue than his boss is. The Liberal candidate needs to gain a better profile though.
03/11/99 A. Email:
Scarborough SW is a traditional NDP riding that happened to go Tory with the sweep in '95. The area has been held, provincially and federally, by New Democrats like Stephen Lewis, Richard Johnston, John Harney, Anne Swarbrick and Steve Owens. It's probably going NDP again.
03/31/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Provincially, this is truly hallowed New Democratic ground, as Scarborough West's Lewis-Johnston-Swarbrick sequence indicates. As for the Liberals, Scar W saw their only under-20% result in Toronto last time out, so don't count them in the picture; this is a critical NDP target riding, and very characteristic of those seats where the NDP and not the Libs will be the anointed "anti-Tory" choice. Dan Newman is no mere pushover, though.
04/03/99 Email:
The NDP's Michael Yorke will take this riding because
(1) he has a solid organization behind him and lots of money.
(2) Strategic voting based on the 1995 election results benefits the NDP.
(3) The Tory incumbent is an innefective backbencher.
(4) Torontonians are still angry about amalgamation.
The NDP will take back Scarborough Southwest.
04/08/99 CNG Email:
This is an area that voted strongly against the Megacity - like the Hamilton seats, it's one of those "accidental Tory" ridings that will likely return to their traditional voting patterns in 1999. In this case, it's Michael Yorke of the NDP who stands to benefit.
04/12/99 Peter Dawson Email:
Scarborough-Southwest will be a close, hard fought match between the NDP and the PC's but since only one can prevail I give the victory to Dan Newman by under 1 000 votes. Historically the riding tends to be NDP but it did go Tory last time and the re-distribution favours Newman. By besting Jim Brown for the nomination, Dan Newman has shown himself to be a shrewd political organizer who will put those skills to good use in the election. The Liberals have never been a factor Provincially but will siphon off just enough votes to deny the NDP victory.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Michael Yorke is a string candidate and city issues are hurting this incumbent backbencher. tories might'n even come second because of the new neighborhoods in the riding.
04/18/99 Mike O'Brien Email: l.obrien@nf.sympatico.ca
Tory incumbent probably will come third. Yorke is a string candidate and Liberals have a good shot too because of redistribution.
05/08/99 Gail Nyberg Email: gail.nyberg@tdsb.on.ca
Either could win but I believe the Tory Dan Newman is in big trouble! This is not a traditional Tory riding.
05/11/99 P. Kasman Email:
From what I have heard and seen, Dan Newman has a solid following, but not solid enough for a sure victory. The strong NDP candate will benefit from an anti-harris sentament and this being a traditional NDP riding. I think personally that the NDP will win but it will be a vary close race. The Liberal is popular but not enough for victory.
05/16/99 Bill Email: wpsignal@idirect.com
It will be Mike Yorke. He will be able to win based on how hard he works and listens to the voters in Scarborough Southwest. In the short time he has had his office he has helped various people in Scarborough. The people in the riding don't want another Tory so they will and won't split the vote with the liberal.
05/17/99 Robert Alan Wiseman Email: robert.wiseman@sympatico.ca
If lawn signs mean anything, then in the areas of the riding I have been the NDP are doing quite well and should win.
05/20/99 Toronto Star Email:
Scarborough Southwest is anybody's riding by Rita Daly
05/23/99 M. Mannone Email:
Outcome depends upon whether anti-Harris support lines up behind one of Newman's opponents. Early on, Michael Yorke was identified by unions as having the best chance to win. Now there is some question about whether traditional NDP supporters, in the old Scarborough West part of the riding, are returning to him. In the eastern part of the riding (formerly Scarborough Centre), anti-Harris votes are more likely to go to the Liberals. This split may return Newman.
05/26/99 Toronto Star Email:
Tax cuts key issue in riding by Caroline Mallan
05/28/99 Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
Scarbborough SouthWest will go along with the Tory sweep. The results will show a three way race with the Tories at about 45% with the liberal second and the NDP third at 23%. The Tories will win this riding ude to the split of the anti-Harris forces.
06/01/99 Email:
The NDP usually wins this riding, and demographically it favours them. Pretty much all of the strategic voting organizations have endorsed Michael Yorke, including the building trade unions (big in Scarborough) that often go Liberal. forces.
06/01/99 P.Kasman Email:
This riding to the dismay of the anti-Harris voters, will have the vote split and a Dan Newman victory.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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