1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
York South-Weston

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Joe Cordiano MPP
Progressive Conservative Party:
Alan Hofmeister
New Democratic Party:
Rosana Pellizzari
Green Party:
Alma Subasic
Communist Party:
Hassan Husseini
Party Leader
Family Coalition Party:
Enzo Granzotto
Natuarl Law Party:
Erica Kindl
David Gershuny

Incumbent (old riding composition):
High Park-Swansea (2%):
Derwyn Shea
Lawrence (48%):
Joe Cordiano
Oakwood (6%):
Mike Colle
York South (81%) :
Gerald Kennedy

Member of Parliament:
IND John Nunziata

Surrounding Ridings:
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
Parkdale-High Park
York Centre
York West

Population: 104 201
Avg Household Income 42 179
Language (Home)
English 67 665
Italian 9 050
Spanish 4 700
Submitted Information
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03/06/99 A. Email:
This riding went Liberal in the by-election because of Gerard Kennedy's high media profile as a left-wing Grit. This time around his "golden boy" shine has worn off by the realities of elected life, and in any case he's running in a different riding. Joe Cordiano, the Liberal candidate, has been neutered as an effective opposition politician by McGuinty. Dr. Rosanna Pellizzari is a well known media personality; she has her own show on WTN, and has been an articulate spokesperson on health care issues. NDP in a squeaker.
03/23/99 OEP Email:
Rosanna Pellizzari? Never heard of her. Perhaps I should spend more time watching WTV. Cordiano should be quite safe here. He ran for leadership and have fequent media coverage. This riding is made of three liberal ridings which all three liberal MPPs won by margin bigger than 5%. Joe himself was 15% ahead of his PC opponent last time. Should the liberals worry about their sitting members, they should sweat about Kennedy.
04/01/99 D.Cavaco Email:
The Liberals will take this riding hands down! His base of support and organization is solid and his visible profile in the Liberal Caucus is unquestionable. The other two candidates are non-entities and will be quickly marginalized. Many residents have not forgotten Bob Rae's years in power nor what Harris has done to local schools and hospitals. Cordiano's sincerity and personality will attract Grit supporters from the entire City.
04/10/99 CNG Email:
No, many residents won't forget that they consistently re-elected Bob Rae for over a decade. The NDP lost the by-election because of Gerrard Kennedy's "star qualities" (since faded) and because the NDP ran an out-of-riding candidate. Dr. Pellizzari, by contrast, is a strong community candidate with a very high media profile, particularly among women.
04/18/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Gerard Kennedy may have been a blip, but this has the makings of something different...perhaps a provincial version of what happened federally 25 years ago, when David Lewis's stronghold morphed into yet another part of the NW Toronto Italo-Liberal belt, as it has fundamentally remained to this day (pace John Nunziata). The addition of the solid west part of Joe Cordiano's riding and the candidacy of Cordiano really does change the political centre of gravity around here, and could allow voters to finally emerge from the formidable shadow of the NDP leader-figures who've called this home. But don't count the Cordiano chickens before they're hatched. His leadership candidacy rescued him from a long obscure bask in the backbenches and opposition benches, but in its aftermath, with the unpleasant machine-politics reminders and especially in light of his being snubbed by McGuinty, Cordiano may actually have been weakened rather than strengthened. Furthermore, Pellizzari is his most serious opponent in ages (the NDP fielded a nominal last-minute candidate against him in '95), and also marks, after the long, long Macdonald-Rae years, the first time the New Democrats have seriously tried to match the Liberals at their own local ethnic-machine game. One catch--the federal NDP did abysmally with Italian candidates in '93 and '97 (in the latter case being the MPP Cordiano defeated in '85). But however much certain elements within the provincial party want to forget the Rae legacy, they won't give up Bob Rae's successor riding for dead. Though it's funny to now see the NDP as the giant-killer here, rather than the giant to be killed...
06/01/99 Email:
With the Libs dropping in the polls, count on their opponents to seriously target even incumbent ridings in these last few days. York South-Weston is traditionally NDP, and Cordiano isn't the incumbent MPP for most of the riding. Pelizzari is VERY well known, especially among women, for her WTN show, and her credibility on health care issues will be a major boost in this election.

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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