1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Election Night Viewing Guide

This list provide a brief description of the races which I think will be interesting. They are either very tight races, or races with high-profile candidates.


The unions poured a lot of money and resources into this riding to elect NDP Colleen Twoney. However, union members in Oshawa are generally fairly well off and will not support NDP. Another factor is that Liberal Chris Topple ran a rather strong campaign. With the vote split, PC Jerry Ouellette will probably return to the legislature.

Missisauga Centre
This riding and Thornhill are the two Central ridings that the Liberals have any chance. Rob Sampson was not the highest profile minister after all.

York North
Liberal star candidate John Volpe is challenging Tory Julia Munro. Volpe’s campaign has been visible and he creamed Munro in every debates. However, an outstanding candidate can do so much. The overall number is with Munro.

With no incumbent running, this riding is open for pick up. Liberal Dan Ronan has higher profile and stronger campaign than PC Tina Molinari. However, this is still 905 country. This riding will be really close.


Liberal René Denis is fighting hard to defend this traditional Liberal seat, held by deputy speaker Gilles Morin. He is facing tough challenge from former mayor Brian Coburn. (PC)

This is a riding which little attention is expected. However, with a strong campaign, Liberal Leona Dombrowsky is giving incumbent Harry Danford a run for his money. The Bill Vankoughnet’s “prostitute factor” and “where is Bill” may play a role as well.

Ottawa Centre
Richard Patten is one of the few Liberal MPP that is on the edge of losing his seat. NDP is running popular city councillor Elizabeth Arnold, who won her last election with virtually no campaign. But again, an outstanding candidate can do so much. Whether the NDP has the number in the east to carry her will be the determining factor here.

Ottawa West-Nepean
PC Gary Guzzo’s best friend is vote splitting. The result will be about how many vote Alex Cullen drains away from Liberal Rick Chiarelli with his former Liberal MPP credentials. Cullen himself does not serve a chance, as this riding has no NDP root whatsoever.

Two high profile incumbents are squaring off in this eastern riding. Agriculture minister Noble Villenevue is running in are more urban riding (compare to his old riding). His opponent, Liberal John Cleary was the Liberal MPP with highest voter support. The anti-Harris voters have been very united in this riding.


Kenora-Rainy River
Howard Hampton is on the edge of losing his seat. He is facing long time Liberal MPP Frank Mielash, who obviously has spent more time in the riding than the NDP leader. Hampton had a lot of central campaign organizers up in the riding, but the odd is against him Southcetnral

Hamilton Mountain
PC Trevor Pettit beat Liberal Marie Bountrogianni by only 1000 votes. The race looks good for Bountrogianni this time, except that Chris Charton, wife of Brian Charton, is running for the NDP and will take a lot of union votes away from the Liberals.

Hamilton West
David Christopher is not only defending his seat, he is defending his party’s status. Most people thought PC Lillian Ross was off the map earlier, but the campaign made it quite obvious that this is a three-way race.

Niagara Centre
A tight three-way race with NDP Peter Kormos in the lead. Liberal Maurice Charbonneau has been amazing during all the debates, but the Liberals just do not have the history in this riding. PC MPP Frank Sheehan will probably be Kormos main challenger.

Toni Skarica has been a rather weak MPP. This gives Liberal Vicky Wylson-Sher a slight chance off taking this riding. This is be a tight race.

Niagara Falls
Bart Maves has not been the brightest star in the legislature. He is facing challenge from Liberal Selina Volpatti. Casino was expected to be a big issue in this race. Southwestern

A three-way race between PC Gerry Martiniuk, Liberal Jerry Boyle, and NDP Gary Gibson. As a union leader, Boyle claimed to have the union support and able to unite the anti-harris votes. However, he has not been successful on taking votes away from the outstanding NDP candidate. Both Boyle and Gibson are better candidate and better politician than Martiniuk (by a distance). However, the vote split will probably send the Tory MPP back to Queen’s Park.

“Ditched Minister” Brenda Elliott is facing tough challenge from Liberal Wayne Hyland. One important factor in this riding is that NDP Bruce Able is quite well known in the community and may take away enough vote from Hyland to ensure a PC win.

London North Centre
This is the most “epic” battle in the province. Former NDP cabinet minister Marion Boyd will face off Tory cabinet minister Dianne Cunningham. With NDP in the low teen in the Southwest, the odd is against Boyd.

London Fanshawe
The most even three-way race in the province. One of the reasons is that there is no incumbent. The result will be determined by the e-day effort of the campaigns, which NDP is traditionally strong on.

Tory Marcel Beaubien is defending his seat against Liberal Larry O’Neill. This riding has gain more attention than expected during the writ.

Windsor-St. Clair
The federal byelection did not shed any light for the result of this election. Liberal MPP Dwight Duncan is still running neck to neck with NDP MPP Wayne Lessard.


Scarborough East
The Liberals were hoping to sweep all seats in Scarborough, but now it is clear that they can only keep their two existing seats (Curling and Phillips) If the Liberal is going to pick up one extra seat in Scarbrough, it will be this one.

Don Valley East
Battle of the Davids. Education Minister David Johnson has been a target for the anti-Tory campaign. He is facing tough challenge from Liberal MPP David Caplin, who has the biggest campaign team in the province.

Etobicoke Lakeshore
A tight three-way race. PC Morley Kells will probably pull through with Liberal Laurel Broten comes in second. Since all the union has been backing NDP Victoria Obedkoff, Broten will suffer under the split.

Battle of the Tonies. Both very high profile and have very strong campaign. This riding has the biggest sign war in the province. Just walk up and down Davenport Ave, or check out yesterday’s Star.

Parkdale-High Park
This will not be a surprise. Watch this just for the entertainment value of Castrilli’s defeat. Gerard Kennedy will win this in a walk.

Toronto Centre-Rosedale
Liberal George Smitherman has a healthy lead over Tory Durhane Wong-Reiger. However Smitherman has to keep the Sewell factor out of the picture. Sewell has demolished NDP Helen Breslauer’s support and has been draining vote from the Liberals. This can only help the Tory.

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Last Updated 3rd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo

This site is maintained by Milton Chan