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09/10/00 |
Chris Delanoy |
Email: chris@propertyrights.net |
A poll taken by the Calgary Sun over the summer showed Eric Lowther leading Joe Clark here by almost 3-1 (48% to 18%). If Joe makes the mistake of leaving his semi-safe seat in Nova Scotia to run here, he will be soundly humiliated by Lowther.
With or without Joe, an Alliance victory is in the cards for Calgary Center. |
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11/10/00 |
Bluenoser |
Email: |
| Joe Clark has been making steady gains in this seat. People just need an election call to spur their responses to opinion polls (otherwise people tend to recite how they voted at the previous election). This one will be a PC foothold west of Manitoba. |
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11/10/00 |
Richard |
Email: |
| Lowther is very scared right now. Joe comes out of the Trudeau coverage looking very respectable and appealable to voters. He is relatively inoffensive and just a good guy. This riding has a large gay population. Stockwell Day's personal views on homosexual rights will be a big problem for Lowther to defend on the campaign trail. Also, the NDP and Liberals are going to run token candidates, giving the former Prime Minister most of their support. Look for Joe to win Calgary Centre for the Tories. |
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13/10/00 |
KD |
Email: |
| In AB, the shock of the night will be if Clark does not take Cal Centre -- his hand-picked riding. Calgarians know the benefits of electing a party leader. Like Alexa in Hfx, a strong Clark showing may even have spill-over effects in neighbouring ridings. |
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14/10/00 |
Paul Kasman |
Email: |
| He may be low in the polls in Cal Centre now, but Joe Clark is a very smart and surprisingly motivated man. Once the election gets started, the people the ethnicly and culturally diverse riding will begin to see what a good politial Clark is and what a good representitive he will be, not to mension he is a party leader. Look for a big PCvictory here. |
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13/10/00 |
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Email: sprockley@hotmail.com |
| Too Close. This will be the fight of Joe's life. Problem is, he'll be busy touring the country. In any past year I'd say Joe Clark would take it hands down - But with Lowther and the happenings with the PC's over the last few months - hard to say....This will be a nail-biter. |
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14/10/00 |
Michael Cooper |
Email: michaelcooper@powersurfr.com |
| Eric Lowther will easily defeat Tory Leader Joe Clark in the heart of Calgary. Joe Clark is highly disorganized and has an inept campaign team in place in Calgary-Centre. Stockwell Day's momentum and the continued popularity of the Klein government, particularily in the City of Calgary, should put Alliance incumbent Eric Lowther over the top. |
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15/10/00 |
Bill D. |
Email: |
I will be very surprised if Joe Clark wins the Calgary Centre seat. In the 1997 election, Eric Lowther won by 3705 votes over a VERY popular city councillor (Bev Longstaff) who had a chance of being in government as the Liberal candidate.The PC candidate was well
back in third place. Joe doesn't have near the appeal that Bev had nor does he have a chance of sitting on the government side of the House.
A few more observations:
-This riding had a population of 117,418 and 86,259 voters on the lists in 1997. The "large" gay population is really quite small when compaired to the whole riding. The "gay vote" argument is rather weak.
-On top of that, the demographics are changing. I work in the area and there has been a steady increase in high priced condos and homes being built where older homes used to be. Most are being occupied by young professionals.
-The Alliance vote is mostly for the party and not for the person.
Otherwise, Bev would have won the last election.
-Recent polls show Joe not doing well. I don't know how accurate these are but the general feeling of the people I talk to would tend to reflect his low showing.
I truly believe he's headed for trouble. |
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16/10/00 |
AL |
Email: alehrer@sprint.ca |
| The John Turner factor may come into play here. Just as John Turner's prestige as a party leader and the personal respect many felt for the man allowed him to pick up Vancouver Quadra in 1984 and hold it in 1988 in a region that was otherwise a desert for the Liberals, Joe Clark's position as Tory leader and the respect many people have for him may allow him to win a seat that would otherwise be hopeless for the Tories. |
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17/10/00 |
Ian Berg |
Email: ipberg@yahoo.com |
| Joe Clark will not survive the tide of Alliance votes washing over the province of Alberta in coming election. Lucky enough to keep a handful of Maritime seats, he will come in third behind the Alliance and Liberals. |
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17/10/00 |
A.S. |
Email: adma@interlog.com |
| I agree with the possibility of a "John Turner" factor working here; but because the PCs are currently in such a sad state, I'll resist offering a prediction. And it also depends on *if* the Liberals offer just a token Candidate--I've heard talk of ex-police chief Christine Silverberg running, maybe not here but you never know. On the other hand, while the voters might be inclined to CA *as a party*, social conservative Eric Lowther's always been an awkward fit within this inner-city riding (more so than his predecessor Jim Silye); a hip young Rahim Jaffer type would be a much more troublesome opponent for Joe Clark. Anyway, there's still time... |
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18/10/00 |
Mike O'Brien |
Email: mic_collins_2000@yahoo.com |
| This a race between Joe Clark and Eric Lowther. It's a race where Eric Lowther had a big head start. The Canadian Alliance will likely be putting extra effort into this one to make sure Clark doesn't get his seat. Lowther, at the last poll, is still far in the lead. I don't see where Clark is making gains - but anything could happen in an election I suppose. The problem is that Clark will not be in the riding like Lowther during the campaign. There are no ringing scandals that come to mind with this incumbant. I think it will be close but no cigar for Mr. Clark. It will be an interesting campaign all the same.... |
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18/10/00 |
Keith Marlowe |
Email: kmarlowe@telusvelocity.net |
| A highly organized and efficient campaign team for Mr. Clark. Mr. Clark is only back behind Mr. Lowther by 10-12% and the Liberals are W.O. candidate. There is a huge advantage to having a party leader as your MP and I suspect that Calgary Centre residents will recognize that. This is a primarily young riding with fairly "l"iberal social values. I don't think the Reform Alliance plays well here. Expect Mr. Clark to pull off an upset deep in Reform Alliance Territory. |
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18/10/00 |
Peter Smith |
Email: smithy6ca@yahoo.com |
Compas Polling shows a drop in Clark support since 1999, still this could be quite misleading. But it's all I see to go on so far. Lowther, even if he's running against a leader, has incumbant advantage.
Here is the link: http://www.compas.ca/html/archives/stockwelljoecalgarycentre_surv.html |
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18/10/00 |
Pundit |
Email: |
| Joe will take this in a walk. He's worked hard in the riding over the last year and as a fiscal conservative who doesn't judge people based on gender or sexual orientation, he is far more representative of the riding that the Alliance member. |
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24/10/00 |
Peter J. |
Email:letstalk@sympatico.ca |
| I just can't see Eric Lowther losing this one. Joe's only shot is to spend so much of his time campaigning in the riding. To do that however, will undermine his profile nationally. The Alliance will through mega-bucks at the riding in the hopes of taking any wind out of the Tory sails. Joe should have stayed out East where his party has a snowball's chance. His loss in Calgary Centre will end his rather dubious career in public service. |
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24/10/00 |
Mike Wakefield |
Email: |
| Catherine Ford was on an Ottawa talk-radio station today. She doesn't think that Joe will lose his deposit; and that was as optimistic as she would get about his chances in Calgary Centre. |
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29/10/00 |
Daniel Sklar |
Email:d.sklar@netaxis.qc.ca |
| Joe made a wrong move on this one. The Canadian Alliance is much too popular in Alberta for him to risk a seat. A defeat for him would paralyze the PC party, which is in trouble as it is. Eric Lowther is a very popular candidate and with Stockwell Day's momentum, i am quite sure Lowther will win overwhelmingly in this riding. The PC party is finished if Joe can't even win his own seat in his home riding. |
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29/10/00 |
J. Reed |
Email:jm_reed@hotmail.com |
| It's gonna be close, but I'll hand it to Joe. A friend of mine from Alberta tells me that this riding is about as urban as they come, and that Joe has a serious shot. Unfortunately he won't be around much , and it's hard to run a campaign without the candidate. |
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29/10/00 |
TS |
Email:tsporca@hotmail.com |
| Unfortunately for Joe Clarke, the time he has to spend away from the riding will cost him in the end. |
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30/10/00 |
Floyd |
Email: |
| As popular as the Alliance party is in Alberta, Joe Clark has a shot at this seat, albeit a long shot. He is personally respected and being the leader of a political party always helps. He'll need all the advantages he can get though; Eric Lowther has received several high profile opportunities in recent years and is the former Reform Party's champion of family values. I give Joe Clark a 1 in 4 chance of capturing Calgary Centre. |
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31/10/00 |
Blake Robert |
Email:albertatory@hotmail.com |
| Joe Clark is nothing short of a joke in Calgary Centre. His nomination meeting only attracted 300 people to a room that could 1000. His campaign doesn't even have enough money for decent signs, so they're using one-colour streetlight posters. His billboards downtown are hilarious... with just a picture of Joe and the caption "Not just another pretty face". The polls are showing 3 to 1 for Eric Lowther, and the rally in Calgary on October 27th certainly proved that. MLAs at the Alberta PC convention were running away so as not to get caught on camera with Joe. Oh yeah... that's appeal alright... This election will finally send a message to Joe Clark... ITS OVER! |
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31/10/00 |
Mr. Mischief |
Email: |
| (Although I post like mad for the Alliance, I have no bias, just curiosity with them - I'm not attatched to any party in particular.) I have never even had the pleasure of visiting Calgary so I can't speak for the people there, but we can always stir up some MISCHIEF just from an amateur political science point of view: 1) Most of the predictions for a Joe Clark victory include the "leader of a political party" song. The question for Calgary Centre voters right now is....IS Mr. Clark going to BE the leader of a party after the election? (TWO pregnant meanings to that.) Let's not forget that Turner was the leader of not just any small party but the LIBERAL party...the most enduring party in Canada. 2) Many of the above predictions for Clark evoked sentiments, such as "Richard" (nothing personal) who wrote: "(Clark) is relatively inoffensive and just a good guy." and AL (nothing personal): "...the respect many people have for (Clark) may allow him to win..." I have met enough Alberta conservatives to know that they're a lot of things - intelligent, fair, patriotic - but SENTIMENTAL??? naw. So, Honest Joe, enjoy your retirement -you've earned it. |
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01/11/00 |
David Agren |
Email:agren@alberta.com |
| I live in Calgary Centre and just saw a Joe Clarke lawn sign today for the first time. Lowther isn't the most exciting MP, but Joe's constant rant about being extreme isn't going get him far. He'll gain votes at the expence of the Liberals and become yet another big name to fall into the trap of thinking Calgary Centre can be picked away from the Alliance. |
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02/11/00 |
L. Bailey |
Email:serum114ca@yahoo.com |
An oddity in Alberta, I am neither a supporter of the Alliance federally or the Conservatives provincially. I am, however, voting for Joe Clark and I believe a great many others will for the following reasons:
-he is a party leader and even though he won't form the government or the oppostition his voice will be stronger in Parliament than Mr Lowther, thereby making him a better choice for disaffected, self interested voters like myself.
-the Alliance will not form the government and if they reduce the Liberals to a minority, this will play into Mr. Clarks hands as his party will represent the balance of power (not the NDP)
-He is the only leader thus far who has displayed integrity, respectability and professional behavior thus far.
It will be a close race, but I think that Clark will pull it out based on his character and history as a respectable politician. |
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03/11/00 |
Mike Wakefield |
Email: |
| For every person who intends to vote Tory in Calgary, there are eight others who intend to vote for the Alliance (Ipsos-Reid). |
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04/11/00 |
Jolly Taxpayer |
Email:grofaz@hotmail.net |
| If you're not from Alberta, please understand the extent that Albertans have an emotional investment in the Alliance. It is hoped that this party will be able to deliver on Alberta's aspirations in Confederation, that this province will get the respect it's contribution to the country deserves. Clark's enormous hubris in trying to resurrect the Tories, his huffy contempt for the Alliance constituency, he is nothing more than a speedbump on the road to turfing those Liberals out of office. He runs in Calgary Centre because he must. But kid yourself - he's a dead man walking. |
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04/11/00 |
GM |
Email: |
| I think there are a great many people here in Calgary who feel, as I do, That having Joe in the House of Commons is a good thing, both for the city and for the functioning of the House itself. I have talked to numerous people who make the simple point that people could have Joe, as party leader, as an MP, or, yet another faceless CA backbencher. I think it will be close, and that Joe has his work cut out for him, but I give him, still, even though it many not look good for him if you drive along Memorial, a chance to win. I guess its the so-called Turner factor again. Joe in a squeaker. |
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06/11/00 |
Sandy Berger |
Email: |
In this corner: Eric "Kid Calgary" Lowther. Lowther is a middle-weight with some advantages: incumbency, local organization, and province wide support for his team. During the campaign, he will be able to knock on every door in the riding and personally shake more hands.
In the other corner: Joe "Who?" Clark. Clark is a former heavy-weight who has been punching below his class of late. He has much higher personal recognition, the sympathy vote, and that attribute of the year: "Gravitas." Clark will be seen more often by local voters during the election thanks to TV; coming into their homes every night to chuckle and jiggle for their amusement.
Clark COULD kick ass in the debates, set fire to his campaign and roar to a victory in twenty ridings across the country. But if he doesn't, he's dead here.
Frankly, Joe got is ass kicked by Trudeau and Broadbent in the last leaders debate he was in. There is no reason to think he has improved. |
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06/11/00 |
AL |
Email:alehrer@sprint.ca |
| Sandy Berger is wrong about Joe Clark and leaders' debates. The last debate Clark was in was actually in 1979, an event which the media judged Clark the winner and which was followed by his election victory on May 22nd. Pierre Trudeau refused to debate Clark during the 1980 election campaign (dubbed "the peekaboo campaign" after the Liberal tendency that year to keep Trudeau from any unscripted moments). So there's every reason to think that Clark could do well in this leader's debate against Chretien (who is no Trudeau) and Day (certainly no Broadbent) and thus ignite his campaign. |
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07/11/00 |
Kevin Worth |
Email:kworth@lycosmail.com |
| Jolly Taxpayer has a good point about Albertans attachment to the Alliance. I live in Edmonton and usually Edmonton is the main source of the provincial opposition, Liberals, to the 30+ year ruling Tories. But federally the Liberals are going to be wiped out from Edmonton. The Reform party was very similiar to the Alberta Tories and the Alliance, especially with Stockwell Day at the helm, is even more like them. I think Calgary will be even less likely than Edmonton not to be all Alliance. Someone else mentioned that Joe's only chance is the do great in the debate and/or have an upshoot in the polls. If Joe can get some more popular support and make it look like his party might be able to join a Liberal minority then he would have a shot. |
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09/11/00 |
Michael P. Myk |
Email: |
| Anyone predicting a Tory victory here is sharing the same grand illusions of antiquarian greatness held by Joe Clark. Alberta is Alliance country, and Calgary is the heart. Eric Lowther will have no problems retaining this seat. |
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09/11/00 |
Keith Marlowe |
Email: |
| The way Mr. Clark played with Day and Chretien like a toy in the debates is proof Clark still has what it takes. Mr. Clark will be debating Mr. Lowther in what should be an "amusing" afternoon outing. If I were Lowther, I'd be very very scared right now. There are Clark signs up all over the riding and I think momentum goes to the PCs. Leaders usually carry their elections... support usually only firms up for them in the last week. Clark and the PCs are going to surprise a lot of people this time. |
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10/11/00 |
Brent Robinson |
Email: |
| I think that anyone who believes that Joe is going to win grossly underestimates the Albertan (especially Southern Albertan and Calgarian) loathing for any party we see as doing us wrong. The Liberals have been unable to garner any real support here (best of luck to Anne Mclellan and David Kilgour) and since Mulroney and the GST the Conservatives have been dead ducks too. Albertans (including those in Calgary Centre of the less socially conservative type) have invested in the Alliance because the traditional parties have only screwed them over in the past. Albertans want the party with Albertan values and Joe will not be able to win here simply for no other reason than he is a Mulroneyite Conservative. If he really wanted a chance he should have run in Edmonton. I have heard speculation that running in Calgary Centre is a direct ploy to make a statement, lose his seat and then hand over the party to the younger and more dynamic Peter Mackay, who can then re-ignite the party from the Eastern base. Just a rumour though, totally unsubstantiated. Also heard Joe thought they could win 170 seats! |
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12/11/00 |
Stuart |
Email: |
| Joe McTeer should have run in his new Nova Scotia riding. He proclaims to be a westerner but no longer is. He knows he will not win calgary centre but has hung around long enough to divide the small-c vote just enough for his friend Jean Chretien to win the election. Look for Joe to be the next unwanted, unelected Senator as soon as possible. A gift from his friend Jean Chretien! |
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12/11/00 |
Bill Wright |
Email: |
| It's over, 3 strong debate performances have turned Clark into a contender. Clark will now be able to win the riding, especially after both the Liberals and NDP decided to run weak candidates. In a two way contest the seat will go to Clark. |
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15/11/00 |
Greg |
Email: |
| For all those "die-hard" Reformers who are not looking objectively at the numbers...Joe leads by 3 in Calgary-Centre!!! The PCs will have a seat deep in the heart of Reform country. |
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16/11/00 |
George |
Email: |
| Joe has some skills as a debater, but his long record of poor political judgement and scarce administrative skills are well recognized in Calgary centre. |
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16/11/00 |
Michael W Ensley |
Email:mensley@rocketmail.com |
| Back in 1984 with Brian Mulroney headed for a landslide victory no one thought that John Turner could win Vancouver Quadra. He won it. The same thing will happen this time out of respect for a solid leader of his party. There will be people of other parties voting Tory to elect this man to the House of Commons. The alliance will be shocked. They should be shocked If they honestly think they can deny an elder Federal leader a seat in the House of Commons. Joe wins and ready for this it will NOT be close. |
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17/11/00 |
David Agren |
Email:agren@alberta.com |
| Joe has reason to feel optimistic. A strong national debate performance has helped more than anything to get local voters to give him a look. His problem is that he has started at such a low level, and he probably doesn't have time to catch up. Whether the Alliance run Eric Lowther, my pet dog, or a carboard cut out of Stockwell Day, they have an overwhelming advantage. The Liberals ran a popular candidate last time and lost. Things won't change, but Joe will have a respectable showing. |
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17/11/00 |
Pundit |
Email: |
| I disagree with Mr. Agren's comment that Joe was starting from too far back. The local press has recently confirmed that Joe leads Lowther 41-38, with 10 days still left in the campaign. Mr. Lowther has taken a big hit over his musings that Reform/Alliance may have a referendum on immigration (I thought citizens were supposed to decide the topic, but I guess that Mr. Lowther and Mr. Day are citizens and could promote referendums on immigration and abortion like any other citizens). Both Mr. Lowther and the liberal candidate are also losing ground this week as a result of the contraversies surrounding their respective leaders. On the whole, this doesn't rate to be even close by voting day. Joe will win in a walk. |
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19/11/00 |
lrs |
Email: |
| due to Clark's performance- and more press- he may luck out and get seat-Lib vote has to slip to low teens to ensure tory win- higher may split vote and let CA win |
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19/11/00 |
kevin |
Email:kevinl@escape.ca |
| Three factors will give Joe Clark this riding: 1. The "Liberals for Joe" movement gives him the appearance of momentum, and appearances count in an election. 2. The growing sense that the Alliance has failed in its mission to appear as a credible alternative to the Liberals. People who earlier might have thought they were helping to elect a government must now realize that the best they can hope for with an Alliance vote is to elect a member on the opposition side. Once that sinks in, they must ask themselves which person in their riding will be the most effective opposition member. 3. Betty Granger's comments on Alliance immigration policy, although at odds with the written one, will keep this issue on the front of people's minds, and give credence to Elinor Caplan's accusations against Lowther. |
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19/11/00 |
Beverley Smith |
Email:bevgsmith@hotmail.com |
| This is a fascinating riding, not just for the oddity of the CA-PC battle, and not just because at 7 candidates it has a high rate of other-group interest. It is also interesting because it is the only riding in Canada where someone is running to focus on women' s issues, with no party affiliation. Granted that the Independent candidate doing so has no major party backing or funding and is therefore way behind, the principle of an individual taking a nonpartisan stand is something quite new to Canadian politics. Kind of like Senator Lois Wilson, the first Independent Senator. |
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19/11/00 |
Gord |
Email: |
| Has anyone else noticed a trend with "Pundit" and his buddies? It doesn't seem to matter which riding they write about, it's always the same story: "The PC's have a strong candidate in [insert name]and have a real chance in [insert riding] because of [insert issue] this time, by golly!" Frankly, I hold suspect any views which remain unchanged regardless of circumstance, and Calgary Centre is a case in point. Unlike the sources of monotonous eastern punditry, I actually LIVE in Calgary Centre and can assure those who don't that Joe McTeer hasn't much hope of winning. No, he won't be wiped off the electoral map, but winning isn't really in the cards. |
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20/11/00 |
MH |
Email: |
| Until Clark started echoing Day's rather grotesque attack on the PM, Clark had a good chance of emulating Turner in 1984. I wonder how the "Liberals for Clark" feel now? My guess is that Clark could have taken the high ground and blew it by doing the "me too" routine. Not the first time that he;s shown his political judgment to be crappy. To think that he qualifies as än elder statesman"is eough to make one weep for Canada. Still, I wouldn't count him out just yet. |
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20/11/00 |
Bill |
Email: |
| Anyone who thinks the "41-38" poll quoted in the local press is accurate is dreaming... those numbers came from the PC camp. Why the heck would you trust numbers coming out of the PC office? It was a poll conducted by a bunch of volunteers, and although the local media did not elaborate on it they clearly identified that the numbers came from the PC office. Additionally, anyone who believe's this race has any parallel whatsoever to the John Turner situation in '84 is also dreaming. J.T. was the Prime Minister at the time... it's been about 20 year's since Joe was PM and since then the only time he had any respect was as a second banana in the Mulroney govt. He got his ego stroked to take over the leadership of the PC's by people who appealed to the Messiah Complex that this man clearly suffers from. The fact that he chose to run in Calgary Centre right after he won the by-election in Nova Scotia shows he still has the same ability to make completely irrational political decisions that he did when he blew up his minority government in the early 80's. Furthermore, if he needs to rely on Liberals and NDP voters who will stray from their parties in order to get elected, how can he be true to traditional conservative platforms? The man may be a master debater, but quite frankly I wouldn't want him to lead a one car parade. And one last point... what's with the daughter thing??? That's just weird. |
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20/11/00 |
Pat |
Email: |
| Eric Lowther is a complete nobody in Calgary; he is a good example of how Reform/Alliance can run dogs and win in this smug political backwater of Alberta. I live in the riding; I normally vote NDP; and I am seriously considering holding my nose and voting for Clark (even a old dog is better than Alliance!) I can think of about 10 neighbours and friends in this riding who are going to do the same. Joe would be a good rep. |
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20/11/00 |
AL |
Email:alehrer@sprint.ca |
| The emergence of "Liberals for Joe," a group of local Liberal MLAs, city councillors and other prominant people (including New Democrats) should help consolidate Clark's position as the strategic alternative to the CA. Look for support for the Liberal and NDP candidates to continue to head Clark's way. |
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22/11/00 |
Environics poll |
Nov.13-16 |
CA - 40.3, PC - 29.8%, Lib - 14.5%
Margin of error 2.55%, 19 times out of 20.
Sample Size = 300
Editor's Note: I was told these numebr are wrong. I have not seen a copy of the Environics press release yet. |
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22/11/00 |
Canoe News |
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| http://www.canoe.ca/CalgaryNews/cs.cs-11-22-0018.html |
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22/11/00 |
Steven |
Email:stvfishy@excite.com |
| I think these numbers underestimate the Liberal support in this Urban Calgary Riding at Joe's expense. Joe it's time to write your retirement speech - at least as an Alberta politician - I doubt he would want to make another Atlantic MP step down again. |
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22/11/00 |
Floyd |
Email:floydcotton@home.com |
| I agree with Gord. Though I still think Joe Clark has a shot at Calgary Centre, Pundit's bias in posting info in Calgary Centre, Calgary Southeast and Calgary West is all too obvious and unbalanced. |
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22/11/00 |
S.G. |
Email: |
| As an observer from Ontario, and a CA supporter, I'm regrettably calling this one for Joe Clark. There seems to be an "Anybody but Lowther" attitude forming in the anti-Alliance vote in this riding and they're galvanizing behind Joe Clark. Clark will win in a very tight race. This could be disasterous for the Alliance since it hoped that a Clark defeat on election night would spell the end for the Tories for good. |
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22/11/00 |
Jamie B |
Email:jam22@hotmail.com |
| Yo Alliance boys! All I have to say to Eric Lowther is: Na! Na! Na! Na! Hey! hey! Goodbye! CTV/Evironics Poll dated Nov. 22/00 LOWTHER: 38% CLARK: 34% Margin of error: 5.4% You were saying something about Joe losing this seat? Think again, Alliance couldnt wipe their own ass in this riding |
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23/11/00 |
Mike Wakefield |
Email: |
| Too close. The Calgary Herald/Global TV shows a dead heat between Clark and Lowther at 37% ... the Liberals are at 20, and the NDP are less than the poll's margin of error. |
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23/11/00 |
Paul Kasman |
Email: |
| According to todays Globe and Mail its a dead heat between Clark and Lowther. Wow! No chance to a dead heat! Clark's gonna pull it off. |
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23/11/00 |
Christopher J. Currie |
Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca |
| I was always a bit suspicious of last summer's poll which showed Clark in third place -- more recent polling seems to suggest that this isn't the case anymore, if it ever was. Unless the Liberals of this riding turn out to be more loyal than people are suggesting, Clark should be able to take it. |
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23/11/00 |
Ryan Good |
Email:rgood@telusplanet.net |
| Although Clark seems to be lagging behind, I think there will be huge election day conversion of Liberal Supporters towards the former Prime Minister because it is always benificial to have a party leader representing you in the House of Commons. Also I think many residents of this riding are willing to vote for either party as long as they have a legitimate chance to unseat the Alliance. |
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23/11/00 |
Sandy Berger |
Email: |
| I am reversing my prediction above and calling this for Clark. The latest poll shows this closing fast, the wind behind Joe and his jowls catching a lift. Plus, he should get a pretty good oversample of people who see him as a sympathetic figure. And finally, the Liberal vote is going to drop and shift as a result of the media blowing Chretien's comment all out of proportion. |
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24/11/00 |
Mr. Mischief |
Email: |
I got egg on my face now.
1) Clark has the upwards momentum in the polls
2) Chretien's deliberate insult of Alberta/Westerners (whichever he meant) might mean a few liberal defections, which might mean those ones will vote for Clark
3) Clark's party is in the running again - 1st. place in the east.
Clark isn't being retired yet. |
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24/11/00 |
Ben Carter |
Email:benmcarter@hotmail.com |
| I can't believe it. People actually think that Joe Clark can win this riding. That's so sad, it's funny. Joe Clark is not going to win this seat, no matter how much he parades his daughter around. Calgary is Alliance country, and Joe is not in the Alliance. Lowther wins, Joe retires, Catherine and I get married (I wish)... |
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24/11/00 |
SM |
Email: |
| The diversity of this riding ensures that it doesn't go to the Alliance, and it being Calgary ensures that it doesn't go to the Liberals or NDP, thus, who's left on the right? Joe, that's who. |
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25/11/00 |
George Pringle |
Email:g_s_pringle@yahoo.com |
| Alliance voters will walk through fire to beat Joe Clark, NDPers & Liberals will stay home if it's a bit chilly. With the real polls coming in even or Clark down a few points, he's on the way and preparing for the traditional Tory knife in the back. Not that it would a bad thing for Joe to win, he can't take the 20 seats that Charest did so the civil war over his continued leadership will further cripple the Tories. |
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26/11/00 |
jesse |
Email:mikeconkin@HOTMAIL.COM |
| JOE CLARK AND THE PROGRESSWIVE CONSERVATIVES HAVE MOMENTUM ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THEY DO NOT FORM THE OFFICIAL OPPOSITION |
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26/11/00 |
MC |
Email: |
| I am not sure how this could be predicted as a PC win. The race is still far too close. Besides, a lot of Clark's support is fairly soft as compared to CA support. Can Clark get out the vote? |
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26/11/00 |
Trevor S. |
Email: |
| Lowther has become a scared deer caught in the headlights. He is and always will be a nobody/airhead. The steady increase of good press/polls has intensified the Clark campaign. A Joe Clark sign on my block saying "Save Canada From The Alliance - Stop Stock" has also spurred on neighbouring residents to get behind Clark. What was once a stop-the-alliance campaign has become a campaign to vote for Clark purely on his respectability and intelligence. A Clark victory will be a direct slap in the face to the Nazi/CRAP/Reform/Alliance. There WILL be a surprise on Monday night in this riding - how badly Lowther will be beaten into the ground. |
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26/11/00 |
denis kadatz |
Email: |
| joe's an old windbag this is alliance country ,he stands no chance |
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26/11/00 |
Eldorado Brougham |
Email: |
| If i was a liberal in calgary center, I would back Joe. For 2 reasons, Hi profile, and secondly he is a liberal. Westerners are smarter and more clued in,even the liberals and regressive conservatives. Chuckles the clown will pull this miracle off,and unfortunately hang around in spite of my sign that says 2 days left in a disasterous political career. Mittens hang from sign. Sadly alliance will be one seat short of an alberta sweep. Hope the good alliance folks in the neighboring ridings are going the max on this one just to prove a point, I have been wrong before. |
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26/11/00 |
D C |
Email: |
| Latest Compass poll at http://www.compas.ca/html/archives/calgaryclarkbehind_surv.html released Nov 24 and conducted Nov 22 has the following: Lowther 44%, Clark 30%, Levy (Lib) 14%, LePan (NDP) 8%, Alvarez-Toye (Green) 2%, Other 2% of the decided & leaning vote. The sample size was 200,the undecided and not leaning was 23%, and the margin of error is 7% |
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26/11/00 |
alberta seperatist |
Email: |
| joe clark was a fool to run in alliance country he will never win here .as for the liberal voters in ontario ,i say we keep quebec and vote ontario out of canada |
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26/11/00 |
S Graham |
Email:sggraham@hotmail.com |
| This will be one of the most interesting and watched races in the country. The result may also have a big impact on the next federal election. Even though I live in an adjacent riding this is a very tough riding to predict. I'm leaning towards predicting the Canadian Alliance for a few reasons. Polls show that the CA has higher support among older voters and older voters vote in higher numbers. CA supporters are solid whereas much of Joe's support is not pro PC party but anti somebody else. Pollsters continually tell us that people are more likely to head to the polls to vote for someone rather than vote against somebody else. As well, CA supporters from other ridings have been brought in to help during the past week along with heavy hitters like Manning and Day. Finally Joe (although he may be a nice guy) is saddled with the Mulroney baggage. Joe was part of a 2 term Mulroney govt. that never met its budget projections, ran deficits every year, raised taxes, and made patronage appointments to the Senate rather than reforming this archaic institution. The PC's are promising to do the opposite this time but what they say they are going to do means little when the opposite was done when they were in power. I said earlier the outcome of this riding may even affect the next election. If the PC's win this riding the biggest winners will be the Liberals. It will take the PC's off life support for a while and continue the recent tradition of a fractured anti-liberal vote for another election. If the Liberals can win perhaps 50% of the seats tommorow with Chretien as leader, how will they do with a stronger leader against a still fractured opposition in the next election? |
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26/11/00 |
Ed |
Email: |
| The latest Sun Media/COMPAS poll shows Alliance at 44% to Clark's 30%. There's a large margin of error and a lot of undecided, but Alliance is clearly in the driver's seat. |
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26/11/00 |
Irish Observer |
Email: |
| My sister lives here, and she and her husband, Trudeau Liberal's both are voting for Joe Clark. She like many of her neighbour's can't bear the thought of wasting their vote on the other candidates. They don't want an Alliance member. Here the result will be decided by strategic voting and a PC win. |
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26/11/00 |
Chris Delanoy |
Email:chris@propertyrights.net |
| The latest poll - and the largest one yet conducted in Calgary Centre - has Joe trailing Lowther by 14 points (44 to 30). That's not a close race. Joe's in for a very rude awakening on Monday. He thinks that his "strong voice" is what Calgary Centre wants - but he never realized that the people there don't like what that voice says! They don't care if Joe will strongly defend special status for Quebec, because that's not something they want. They don't care if Joe will strongly defend employment equity policies, because that's not something they want. And it goes on and on. |
