Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Edmonton Centre-East

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Sue Olsen
Canadian Alliance:
Peter Goldring
Progressive Conservative Party:
Kevin Khaled Mahfouz
New Democratic Party:
Ray Martin
Communist Party:
Naomi Rankin

Peter Goldring

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
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09/10/00 Chris Delanoy Email:
This may be a somewhat competitive riding, but Alliance MP has worked like a dog for three years building his reputation as a workhorse for this riding, and it would be surprising to see him lose.
Although the effect of the Alliance's coat-tails may be tempered by a desire by some to punish Stockwell Day for his former role in the provincial Tory government, I doubt either effect will sway the riding either way.
The Liberals may run popular local MLA Sue Olson against Goldring, but I don't think that she will be able to pull it off, especially if her left-leaning appeal is offset by the expected running of former Alberta ND leader Ray Martin for the NDP.
25/10/00 Anand Sharma Email:
This is going to be the best battle in AB with three solid candidates. The Alliance and Peter Goldring are weak and despite the fact that the CA will pretty much sweep AB, this is the exception. The Liberal candidate is just plain rude, and quick frankly pulls dirty tricks to win(for ex. provincially she pulled a vote for the NDP is a vote for the PC's, and ended up barely in with the NDP second in Norwood). Her debut was her falling flat on her face at a rally as she tripped and fell face first...nice start(don't worry she was alright!)Ray Martin, A high profile NDP candidate(former leader of the Alberta ND's)is going to make this a three-way battle. Edm-Highlands which voted NDP provincially with 60% support is fully in this riding, plus Beverly Clareview(NDP GOT 30%provincially) and a number of low-income ridings are here. The libs will only win if they play dirty which they will. I think Goldring is done for BUT it's really anyone's guess and anyting could change! btw I really didn't like Olsen telling the press that Martin "didn't do anything for the community since many Albertans who weren't media hogging MLA's fought hard on the issues in the communities and I think this is very arrogant of her)
30/10/00 A.S.
"Redmonton" is as marginal as things get for Reform/Alliance in Alberta; indeed, most of their gains and near-gains here in '93 (with 4 out of 6 ridings decided by less than a percentage point!) seemed a little flukey. But the "urban strategy" spearheaded by Deborah Grey in '97 blew all uncertainty away; and Goldring blew a Grit incumbent away--by 10 points! Indeed, an unbelievable (and perhaps ominous) fact is that all but one of Edmonton's '97 Reform candidates, winning or losing, did better than Calgary Centre's Eric Lowther, whom Joe Clark is facing...
30/10/00 Chris Chmelyk
This riding will be tight, but will go NDP. Reasons: 1) This riding is the ONLY NDP target in Alberta. As a result, many resources will be allocated here. Respected and popular former ND leader Ray Martin is the candidate here. As well, Alexa McDonough is expected to spend a fair bit of time here on a few campaign stops. 2) Until very recently, "Redmonton" was very fertile ground for the NDP and Liberal support very soft. Until 1993, the NDP often got 50 - 60 % of the vote Edmonton-wide. This riding has always been the locus of NDP support in the province, and in 1988 elected the only non-Tory from Alberta (NDPer Ross Harvey). 3) The bulk of the riding is made up of Highlands provincial circonscription, which in a recent by-election voted more than 60% for the NDP. The other areas of the riding include Edmonton Centre and Beverly-Belmont, where the party got 25% provincially and Norwood (Martin's old riding) which the NDP lost by only a few hundred votes provincially last time. 4) The healthcare issue and Bill 11 have galvanized support behing the NDP in a province where the provincial Liberals have often been known to campaign to the right of the Tories, and include Federal Reformers like Edm-Southwest MP Ian McClelland. Malaise with Tory-turned-Liberal leader Nancy Macbeth and strong anti-Chrétien sentiment will not help the Liberals either 5) Very positive NDP coverage from the CBC, ITV, and the Edmonton Journal. The Journal ( has a panel of six voters in Edmonton, whose views they are tracking. Three of them are already leaning toward the NDP. My brother has been watching campaigns in Edm-Centre-East, as well as in Strathcona, and he says that people in Edmonton (shockingly) seem very distrustful of Stockwell Day ("he's too slick, and politician-like). Watch for some very interesting results in the Edmonton ridings, as well as the suburbs like Elk Island, and St. Albert.
Another thing: Edmontonians won't be roped into voting Liberal to "stop the Alliance." Edmonton is used to being the sole voice of opposition in the province. They tend to vote for what they believe, knowing they're going to lose. Indeed the entire Opposition in Alberta usually comes in its entirety from Edmonton. This usually results in Edmonton being punished (or rewarded Federally) at budget time. Previous Edmonton results: (1986 Prov - 12 NDP, 2 Lib, 2 PC)(1988 Fed - 5 PC, 1 NDP) (1989 Prov - 12 NDP, 4 Lib) (1993 Prov - 18 Lib) (1993 Fed - 4 Lib, 2 Ref) (1997 Prov - 14 Lib, 2 NDP, 2 PC) (1997 Fed - 4 Ref, 2 Lib)
06/11/00 Kevin Worth Email:
Alliance Candidate is the incumbent and a good rep for the area. Also the NDP candidate, Ray Martin, is fairly high profile and like to take votes away from the Liberal.
06/11/00 Anand Sharma
Okay so this riding is getting tighter. Goldring and the CA want a sweep in AB and are really going hard at the doors, while Olsen and the Libs started off strong, but are now dieing quickly. Lib insiders are conceding that this seat is no longer an expected gain, in fact the way momentum is shifting, the liberals will be hard pressed to win even one in AB. Add to that the NDP candidate Ray Martin has been picking up steam(recent convention) after a slow start and this one has the potential to be a a tight three way battle...look for trends to start emerging in the next week, either the NDP convince the people that their candidate is more likely to win, or the Libs do the strategic vote thing, or Goldring comes up the middle, certainly Goldring NEEDS a split to win..... way too close!
12/11/00 R.D. Email:
Alexa McDonough's strong performance in the leaders' debates, particularly on health care, and still simmering anger in the province over Bill 11 will give the NDP this seat. The Liberals have far less credibility on the issue here. Note this riding contains almost all of Edmonton Highlands, which elected NDP MLA Brian Mason to the provincial legislature with almost 60% of the vote this spring. Edmonton Strathcona, the only other Alberta riding with a provincial NDP member, may tip their way federally as well.
15/11/00 Mr. T Email:
This is a three horse race, as much as the alliance and liberals want you to believe otherwise. Peter Goldring has no ideas and is riding solely on the alliance popularity bandwagon, unfortunately the wagon stopped here when Day took control. People here know Day from his provincial days and don't like his politics. This doesn't bode way for a coattail-riding backbencher. Sue Olson will try and convince people to vote strategically, unfortunately people here don't like Chretien either. So long as Ray MArtin can stay high profile and get his message out he will win. I believe people here would like his policies the best. Martin just has to sell them.
16/11/00 DLP Email:
I can't imagine that anybody believes that the NDP has an actual shot at this seat. Ray Martin has not won an election since 1989. He lost Norwood to a nobody Liberal candidate in 1993 and finished a poor 3rd in Edmonton North federally in 1997. The only role he might play is spolier and take enough votes away from the Liberal candidate to allow a mediocre, and I am being generous, CA MP to go back to Ottawa and get his gold plated pension. This is a two way race between Liberal Sue Olsen and CA MP Peter Goldring. Olsen is a bright dynamic woman who quickly made her name in the provincial legislature as the MLA for Edmonton Norwood. Goldring, on the other hand, has made no name for himself in Ottawa unlike other Edmonton CA MPs like Rahim Jaffer and Deborah Grey who manage to get media without being embarassing. His one man campaign against women's shelters and affordable housing makes the Alliance look like the party debtor's prisons and public humiliation for stealing bread to feed hungry children. Even the CA would be better off without him.
17/11/00 EP Email:
This riding was represented by four differrent party in the past four parliament. With Liberal moving slightly ahead in Edmonton (which return Kilgour to "very winnable" while McLellen remains a tight race), Olsen might have a chance of unseating Goldring. However I would not be surprised if Ray Martin became the spoiler and return the seat to CA. Consider how low NDP is at in the polls, Ray has no chance of winning whatsoever. However, Ray's personal appeal and popularty (I think most would agree that he is a very respectable politician) will attract quite a bit of left vote to the Liberals. Will be tight.
Alliance candidate draws controversy in hotly contested Edmonton Centre-East
17/11/00 Brad N.
Ok.. I hate to dissapoint all you NDP supporters, but can we have a reality check here... this is ALBERTA - not BC or the Maritimes.. There's no way the NDP can wil here. Now, to the liberals... I find it extremely unlikely that the Libs could snatch this one away from the Alliance. Kilgour and McLellan are having a hard enough time holding their own seats as the popularity of the CA rises in Alberta.. it's wishful thinking that a former reform seat is going to change hands to the Liberals.
18/11/00 Doug McLachlan Email:
I realize this is going out on a limb, but a few things have happened of late to make this a more interesting fight than many would have imagined. The NDP candidate, Ray Martin, is a popular former leader of the Provincial party. His old Provincial riding, along with that of newly elected Provincial ND Brian Mason, are in the federal boundaries. The Alliance people have no use for Goldering and Olsen's workers are being called into Edmonton West to try and save their seat there. If the turnout is low (and lets face it this campaign has excited nobody) then this one could surprise a few people.
19/11/00 Anand Sharma
well i would have to say that this one is the hardest to predict. Word was out before this election that Olsen was gonna kick the living daylights out of Goldring but she doesn't connect with the people well. As an NDP'er there are certain Liberal politicians who are easy to get along with, she isn't one of them. She attacks others and is aggressive, something ya either love or hate. I think the residents of Edm-centre East won't go for her style annd she won't be able to galvanize the NDP vote, that say a Laurie Blakeman or Bettie Hewes could. She needed to not offend provincial NDP voters who may have voted her way but instead she attacked Dr. Pannu(ND Leader) and he is extremely well respected in edmonton so she shot herself in the foot. As for the NDP the volunteers just don't seem to wanna fight a federal battle and are preparing for the provincial election in March. Martin will pick up a sizable share but not enough to win i would think...Goldring is weak as w! ell but the inability of the Libs or the NDP to mobilize may hand him a victory with under 35% support......still waiting for a sign as to which way this ones going....could be a very long night for all three candidates on e-day.....
19/11/00 lrs Email:
seat should stay Ca based on prov polls-libs will pull resources to hold the two seats they hold
24/11/00 Peter Pereira Email:
Reality check. No incumbent CA MP who won his riding by 10% last time around is going to lose this time. And the NDP have a stronger NDP candidate in the riding this time around, to split the anti-CA vote. There will be no Liberal MPs from Alberta this time around. Jean Chretien made sure of that in the middle of the last week of the campaign by doing what the Reform did in the last election when they grouped all Quebec leaders together.

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Last Updated 25 November 2000

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