|John Cummins could be in trouble here. If the Liberals pick up any seats, look for them to start here.
|John Cummins is one the Alliance's best critics. I always enjoy watching him hammer on Herb Dhaliwal in Question Period. If the Liberals are going to pick up any seats (which is pretty unlikely everywhere except Atlantic Canada), they sure won't be starting in Delta-South Richmond.
|The Alliance has solidified it's support in British Columbia. This despite the fact that the Liberals since 1993 have tended to do well in the Province between elections. John Cummins is a popular incumbent with a loyal backing. Cummins won decisively in the last election. The Liberals have not yet held nomination meetings in the Vancouver area. Because the Liberals are not particularly organized in the Lower Mainland along with clear Alliance momentum in British Columbia and a popular incumbent - Cummins will win a third consecutive mandate with at least a 10,000 vote plurality in the bag.
|I really have not seen any convincing evidence that this riding should not be returned to the Alliance. Despite poll numbers which suggest the Liberals may have a slight gain in BC I doubt it will convert into any real seat gains for them, especially since after an election is called whatever small gain they have made will more than likely disappear. (if past electoral behaviour stands as a good test of future behaviour..)
|If the Liberals put on a good campaign, they could steal this riding from the Alliance.
|The Liberals thought that they were going to knock John Cummins off in the last election. Cummins was the only Reform MP who stayed in the MP pension plan prior to the '97 election and he was convicted of fishing illegally while protesting a native-only commercial fishery. What happened? He increased his percentage of the vote from 36% to 46%. If the Liberals couldn't do it in '97 they certainly can't do it now. John Cummins wins with a comfortable majority.
|If Cummins is threatened by the Libs, then for once, them BCers'll be voting the same way they answer polls between elections. There's a vague--too vague--possibility that Gritmania'll start to create a "second ring" around Van--a bumper crop of Sekoras--and I know the margin (thanx to the Richmond part) was just under 10% in '97, but Cummins critiques them fishie little ministers real good.
|John Cummins faced a strong Liberal challenge last time and won. He also faced a campaign by the NCC over his opting into the gold-plated MP pension plan. Cummins is one of the most effective critics the Alliance has.
|While Cummins is not a natural fit for most of the riding, he has been an effective oppostion MP. The Liberals have parachuted someone in, hardly a gresat way to get people to come out and vote Liberal. The Liberals have a history of not chosing strong candidates for this riding and therefore lost what should be an easy win for them in the past
|Although he has roots in this riding, the Liberal candidate (Jim Doswell) hasn't lived there in several years...and his last major involvement in the community was broiled in controversy (all but accusing the residents opposed to the Tsawwassen First Nations development of Tswatsu Shores of being racist bigots - suggesting in an open letter to the community that "white sheets are a poor addition to anyone's wardrobe"). Unfortunately for Doswell, the bulk of Delta residents who exercise their voting privileges live in this area, and hopefully have good memories. An opportunist with a parachute well describes this candidate. Mr. Cummins on the other hand has deep roots and a commitment to his community. He's an effective opposition critic, and has represented his constituency well in the past. Doswell's checkered past in the South Delta area, combined with Cummins' strength in the North should far outweigh any advances that the Liberals might make in the South Richmond district of this riding. I predict this riding to easily re-elect Mr. Cummins
|This is an awkward new riding with two major areas. The South Richmond part is very urban, Liberal, multicultural and cosmopolitan while the Delta part is more rural, conservative and pro-Alliance. Cummins will be re-elected due to his strength in the Delta area, but he is a low-profile MP with a poor attendance record in parliament. If the Liberals had run someone high profile they may have a chance of winning this.