Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Kamloops, Thompson and Highland Valleys

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Jon Moser
Canadian Alliance:
Betty Hinton
Progressive Conservative Party:
Randy Patch
New Democratic Party:
Nelson Riis
Canadian Action Party:
Ernie Schmidt

Nelson Riis

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
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11/10/00 JWH Email:
Kamloops is one of the few unique ridings in Canada that has traditionally elected a member of parliament not on party lines, nor national leadership, but the individual candidate. How else can one explain the realatively few Members of Parliament this riding has had since the Second World War: E. Davie Fulton, Len Marchand, Don Cameron, and Nelson Riis who were all fine Parliamentarians in their own right.
This riding is up in the air. The political winds are changing in Kamloops. In the Municipal Elections of 1999, only one incumbent city councilor was re-elected. After 20 years of Nelson Riis, people seem to be getting tired of him, and his NDP nametag will only hurt him if people are to group him with the unpopular provincial NDP.
Riis came within a few thousand votes of loosing in 1997 to the Liberal challenger Joel Groves. However, Joel Groves, a former secretary treasurer of the LPC will not be the Liberal candidate in the next election because he has become a master of the supreme court of British Columbia and thus is no longer a member. With the departure of Joel Groves, the Liberal Party in Kamloops is confused and without leadership. Although, there is a weak nomination battle being fought for the Liberal Party, none of the prospective candidates look to be quality candidates. The two frontrunners are an ex-bureaucrat from Ottawa, and a young lawyer who falls into the typial slimy Liberal candidate category.
The Alliance is posibly the front runner in the race to beat off Nelson Riis. There is a heavily contested nominationi between five nominees, and with a membership that has exploded as a result of the CA leadership race, this pary could become the privilaged one that ends Nelson Riis' reign. It depends on whom the members choose as their candidate the Alliance whether voters will see it as a new party in its own right, or just a rehashing of the old Reform Party.
Surprising in a B.C. interior town, the Progressive Consrevative Party is surprisingly strong. It nominated its candidate at the end of July and seems to be ready for the coming battle. Dr. Randy Patch, a local dentist and doctor is a man of outstanding integrity and is knowledgeable of the issues. A man who has been develloping a network and a fine campaign team, Dr. Patch may play the dark horse in this race stealing right wing votes from the Alliance, character votes from Nelson Riis, and picking up a sizable portion of the Liberal-Tory swing votes that Groves monopolized in the last election. This may be one of the PC Party's best shots at a victory in British Columbia.
This is to be a very close race indeed. It will be won on the character of the individual candidate and the ability to get the vote out.
12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
It will be a tight race, but incumbent Nelson Riis will be re-elected. He is a very popular MP.
20/10/00 J Smith Email:
The Tories may not win this riding, but there candidate is a well respected member of the community. It is possible that he will be able to steal a number of Alliance votes, and maybe some of the liberal votes. This is the PC's best chance of pulling out a victory.
24/10/00 G Email:
The Glen Clark scandal will hurt already depressed NDP fortunes in BC. Nelson Riis will be one of the casualties.
26/10/00 Christopher J. Currie EMAIL: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.c
Riis managed to stave off anti-NDP sentiment in '93 and '97. I wouldn't bet the house on it, but I think he'll probably do the same this time.
26/10/00 CM EMAIL:
Although he'll face a tough fight with the Alliance, Riis is popular enough to survive the collapse in the NDP vote.
29/10/00 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.
Riis has been resilient, but more precariously so than Svend; even provincially, the Kamloops area at large has been relatively soft if viable NDP. There've been on'n'off rumours of retirement, following which a CA grab'd be almost guaranteed. The Grits gave it a good '97 try, actually clipping Ref for 2nd, but they're probably no match for the roaring new neighbour named Stock--perhaps the real clue to Riis being steamrollered at long last. Though I'd rather those 2 glam boys stick around to do their "I'm Too Sexy" duet...;-)
29/10/00 A. Email:
It seems that virtually every election another party (and the media) predict the political demise of Nelson Riis. It ain't gonna happen this time either. He's a community fixture, here to stay.
02/11/00 JTL Email:
The crafty Nelson Riis will once again ride victoriously to Ottawa. It will be close, but Nelson will get the 20% die-hard NDP vote and another 20% based on his personality. The Alliance will be close and the Liberals, who could have easily won this riding, chose the wrong candidate. Jon Moser is not ready, as his early mistakes have shown. The PC candidate will get about 2% of the vote as he lacks personality, which makes him dead in the water against Riis.
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
The NDP is polling a dismal 6% province-wide ... Nelson will be staying in Kamloops all right ... somebody else will be going to Ottawa.
04/11/00 j Email:
With th NDP in single digits (6% province-wide), even Riis's personal popularity won't save him. Riis has been a good moderate MP for Kamloops, but its unlikely he'll be going back to Ottawa. CA pick-up. The NDP will be left with just Libby Davies and Svend Robinson.
04/11/00 Absentee Voter
Thus riding is the hole in a donut of Alliance MP's. Given BC landslide poll number for he Alliance, a softer Alliance platform and a tight three way race last time, this one is easily turned to the Alliance. Most once NDP seats in BC have turned Alliance not Liberal.
05/11/00 Email:
Nelson Riis (NDP) is eating John Moser (LPC) for lunch. While this is going on the first true rural, small community candidate (Betty Hinton, CA) is breaking through the rural, small community vote that has been Mr. Riis' solid carry.
06/11/00 BRY Email:
Look for Jonny "Big Mo" Moser to come up the middle in a nasty three way split. The rural part of the riding will make or break the Liberals chances here as it did with Joel Groves in 1997.
21/11/00 lrs Email:
just a wild guess- with DAY close by- may be enough to end NDP hold on seat need Lib co-operation to keep seat NDP- Lib vote will be high enough to cause CA slight win
21/11/00 J.Fershau Email:
Nelson Riis' performance on the CBC's Town Hall (Nov 20, 2000) should more than solidify his return to Ottawa. He was the only one who offered specifics to issues that really matter: health care, child care, and stemming the so called 'brain drain.' Compared to the weak and disjointed answers given by Stephen Owen (Van. Quadra, Lib.) and Val Merideth (Surrey-White Rock, Alliance) and the PC candidate from Langley, Mr. Riis displayed why he has served the Kamloops and area riding for 5 consecutive terms. The NDP may not reach official party status nationally, but this riding will buck the Alliance wave in the West.
23/11/00 Tom Parkin Email:
A poll published in Kamloops this Week shows Riis (NDP) with 39%, Alliance with 27%, Liberals with 21% and Tories at 9%. With the Stockwell Day campaign flatlined, there's really no reason to think that the Alliance can close a 12 point gap between now and Monday.
24/11/00 CHNL MyBC News
NDP's Riis forecasted to lose seat
The MacIntyre/Mustel poll, commissioned by the Kamloops Daily New, has Alliance candidate Betty Hinton with 32-per-cent support among decided voters, nine points ahead of Riis.
Liberal John Moser sits in third with 22 per cent, while Tory Randy Patch trails with five per cent.
24/11/00 T. Giraud Email:
I don't know who posted that last poll from the Kamloops Daily News, but they are reporting it inaccurately. This is the latest poll as reported on CNHL Radio today (November 24): Hinton (CA) - 32%, Riis (NDP) - 23%, Moster (Lib) - 22%, Patch (PC) - 5%, Undecided - 18%. I think if I were you I would move this back into the toss-up category, if not into Alliance territory. Also remember that other polls have the Alliance at 50%+ in rural BC.
24/11/00 Andrew Steele Email:
Jon Moser by a yardarm. How can anyone fail to flock to the banner of a man who was in the Tin Cup walk? Or who has such fine hair? Or writes such fine letters to the editor, exposing the injustices of the world? Mo's got the big Mo.
24/11/00 Bill D-G Email:
At single digits in the polls, some NDP MPs are going down to defeat and it looks like Nelson Riis will be one of them. While support has gone to the Liberals, the Alliance seem to have gained the most in the most recent poll done by the Kamloops Daily News. Combined with Chretien's recent anti-Western comments look for an Alliance victory.
26/11/00 John Anthony Email:
Excluding the recent submissions by the NDP campaign workers, the truth is that Riis is in trouble. The Kamloops This Week Poll was an unscientific assignment by 4 journalism students who did not use proper sampling techniques. The Alliance is ahead in the one scientific, professional poll by a sizeable portion. Although Riis has been sing the VOteREady technology to its max, including the negative targeted phone calls to polling areas which are likely to vote Liberal, I think it might be too late. His only chance is to get the undecided vote out. By the way, tgis is an unbiased opinion as I support neither the NDP nor the CA, I support the Liberals.
26/11/00 Sam S Email:
A recent poll done by the local university shows Riis, the NDP candidate ahead by 12 points. In combination with the recent backing of the popular mayor of Kamloops, Riis should be able to hold his seat. He held it when the NDP was all but wiped out in 1993, there's no reason that with a 12 point lead he won't hold on to it now.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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