Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
New Westminster-Coquitlam-Burnaby

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Lee Rankin
Canadian Alliance:
Paul Forseth
Progressive Conservative Party:
Mike Redmond
New Democratic Party:
Lorrie Williams
Communist Party:
Hanne Gidora
Green Party:
Francois C. Nantel
Marxist-Leninist Party:
Brian Sproule

Paul Forseth

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
Submitted Information
Submit Information here

13/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
This is a tough riding to call. Anti-Alliance votes could coalesce around the NDP, but because the provincial government here is unpopular, the Anti-CA vote could go Liberal. Or the Alliance could squeak up the middle.
16/10/00 Chris Delanoy Email:
Either the Liberals or the NDP would take this riding comfortably - IF the other one stepped aside and let them. However, both always want the seat and both always run balls-out against the Alliance here, letting Forseth wiggle up the middle. Expect the Liberals and NDP to beat each other into another Alliance victory here.
26/10/00 Christopher J. Currie EMAIL:
The NDP ran Dawn Black in '93 and '97, allowing Forseth to win via a vote-split. Assuming that the NDP doesn't run a candidate of equal strength this time, the Liberals should take it.
26/10/00 CM EMAIL:
Very tough riding to call. With the unpopularity of the BCNDP, the unslpit anti-Alliance vote will most likely give the Liberals this seat.
29/10/00 A.S.
If the NDP were up to the task of doubling their BC caucus, this, Vancouver-Kingsway & Skeena would be their top targets. The spatial reflected NDP glory's from Svend Robinson, the temporal's from Pauline Jewett. Forseth, well, he was 1993's only under-30% victor, with less than 3 points between 3 parties; all 1997 did was nudge those parties up a titch (and NDP back ahead of Lib), with Forseth now prevailing at 34 1/2%. And besides the presumed NDP cave-in, the "Sekora factor" out Coquitlam way might ultimately help the Grits by default...
03/11/00 Blake Robert
Perhaps some people aren't reading their newspaper... THE ALLIANCE IS SURGING IN BC FOLKS! With the exception of a couple of communist ridings in Vancouver, BC is Alliance territory. No Liberals are safe here.
08/11/00 Bernard Schulmann
CA is not ahead of where reform was in 1997, but the Liberals are way up and the NDP is way down. In 1993 and 1997 Dawn Black (one time MP) ran in the riding and had a personal following that kept her ahead the NDP result in BC in general The end of the vote splitting will make this a Liberal slam dunk. BTW, hands up who ever has heard of this MP? For someone who won with almost no margin, he has done nothing much to make himself electable.
10/11/00 Khush Dhillon Email:
This riding is going to be close to call. The NDP vote has shrunk, but the NDP roots in this riding are deep. The Liberal candidate being a former NDPer helps, but he made too many enemies when he quit the party to get help from them. He has little volunteer support and started 10 days into the elction. I would guess Liberals will come in second , behind by 1000 votes or less. The NDP support may have shrunk to help Liberals, but in the last weeks Alliance support has grown also.
12/11/00 VY Email:
Can't believe Khushwant Dhillon's submission (above). His dad is the Liberal Riding President, and he backed Lee Rankin's opponent for the nomination. Sounds like sour grapes!! Get behind Lee - he's going to make an upset. Count this one in the Liberal column now.
14/11/00 JRFD Email:
My parents live in this riding and what Dhillon is saying is consistant with what I am hearing about this riding. Rankin has been trying unsuccessfully to get NDPers to back him. Unfortunately there is nothing they hate more than a turn coat.Clearly there is soar grapes among the traditional Liberals so Rankin DOES lack volunteers. The NDP vote has by no means evaporated - they are clearly winning the sign war in New West and attracting volunteers has not been a problem for them. However I have to admit that the NDP is too weak in BC to make gains so put this in the Alliance column thanks too their large Coquitlam support. I predict that every former NDPer that is running for the Liberals will go down to defeat this election - this riding being a case study.
17/11/00 Imaad
Lee Rankin does not lack volunteers. there are over 150 that are registered. Yeah, there are some sour grapes that did boil over from some liberals who voted for the most inexperienced candidate, but overall, the polling is showing the liberals and Reform-alliance Neck and Neck.
19/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
The Alliance candidate in Winipeg's ignorant comments about an "Asian invasion" will cost the Alliance this seat. First, it will push new Canadians away from the Alliance and toward the Liberals in a riding with a high-proportion of ethnic voters. Second, the collapse of the NDP vote in BC leaves a large number of social justice supporters deciding between the Liberals and the Alliance. After comments like this, it is obvious who they will choose.
20/11/00 AL
The Alliance seemed to be making inroads among Chinese-Canadian voters until Betty Granger's comments a few days ago reminded immigrants of why they shunned the Reform Party. Look for the Liberals and even the Tories to benefit.
25/11/00 JS
Your prediction for Liberal is incorrect. His riding is held by the Reform since 1993. Before that was NDP. Liberal is far from behind. It is a tought fight between Alliance and NDP. But I predict NDP this time. Never will be Liberal.
25/11/00 randy gorman
The above prediction of an ndp win in this riding is out to lunch.JS you fail to relise the pulse of the community in this campaign, the battle for this seat is now between the incumbent Paul Forseth of the alliance and former NDP'er Lee Rankin. the ndp voters are backing Mr. Rankin this time around to try and rid the alliance from the riding. Mr. rankin is well respected and will make a good mp whether he ran as a liberal or new democrat. he will win by about a 7% margin over Mr.Forseth. the prediction is therefore correct.
26/11/00 Alex Email:
Liberal won't win in this riding. Many people wrote letters in the Coquitlam Now and Tri-cities News showing their anger about the switch-party behaviour of Mr. Lee Rankin. Moreover there are much less lawn signs of Liberal than NDP or Alliance.
26/11/00 Peter Pereira Email:
No chance of an upset here. The CA did not do as well as they expected during the election campaign - with the exception of Markham and maybe Calgary Centre - they are not going to lose any incumbent seats. If the NDP was weaker in this riding, the Liberals may have had a chance. Not the case, with Svend next door. CA 35%, Lib 25%, NDP 25%, PC 15%
26/11/00 Khush Dhillon Email:
Well, I'm glad we have had such an interesting talk about this riding. I must say that I don't appreciate the personal attack, it is quite sad. With the numbers the way they are, Rankin will win by 500. Remember there are 15-20% that are still undecided and I think they will try to vote to stop the Alliance. He would have won easily its too bad his campaign is so poorly organized and financed.
26/11/00 JRFD Email:
I'd love to predict this riding for the NDP since their campaign is going way better than expected there. However it is clear that Lee's campaign is faultering and isn't taking the NDP vote like he planned, therefore I predict Foresyth will hold the seat. The NDP will do much better than expected here.

Submit Information here
Back to British Columbia Index
Back to Home

Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan