Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Rhoda Witherly
Canadian Alliance:
Andy Burton
Progressive Conservative Party:
Kevin Lee Glowinski
New Democratic Party:
Larry Guno
Green Party:
Roger Colin Benham
Natural Law Party:
Cliff Brown
George Joseph

Mike Scott

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:
Prince George-Bulkley Valley
Prince George-Peace River
Vancouver Island North

Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
This riding is a toss up. Incumbent Mike Scott has no real intentions of running again. He has earned the wrath of the local first nations population because of his opposition to the local Nisga'a accord. Active native political involvement against Scott or another Alliance candidate is very possible.
16/10/00 Sam S Email:
Although held by the Alliance, the NDP will likely take this one in a close race. Because the local Alliance MP has lost a huge amount of popularity, it will hurt the Alliance's chances, regardless of whether or not he runs again. Also, the NDP MP from 1988-93, Larry Gonot, is seeking the nomination there. Should he be running, he will stand an excellent chance for a few reasons. The first reason is that he is First Nations, and will be very popular with the Haida. The next reason is that Skeena is still an NDP strong spot and a location of traditional support. Lastly, Gonot, didn't lose his seat because he was unliked, but rather because the NDP was all but wiped out in 1993 when Reform marched into the west.
18/10/00 A.S. Email:
Larry Gonot wasn't an MP here or anywhere in 1988-93. But this absolute extremity of BC *was* solid federal NDP pre-93, and it's the home of well-regarded ex-acting premier Dan Miller. Thanks in no small part to the aboriginal issue, it ought to be (momentarily ignoring the party's sad state) the NDP's top Alliance target in BC. If it goes NDP (or Grit by proxy), call it Yukon South; if it goes CA, call it Alaska Southeast.
24/10/00 Full Name
Although the NDP seems to have marginalized itself into near-extinction nationally, I believe it can pick up this seat from the Alliance. Larry Guno was a popular NDP MLA well in advance of the Glen Clark government years, and is also a Nisga'a. Mike Scott (the current MP) angered many in the constituency with this hard-line anti-Nisga'a treaty stand. If the aboriginal vote can get together in this area, there could well be an upset. Of course, I think it will all come down to the strength or weakness of the Liberal candidate.
29/10/00 Chris Delanoy
Looking at the poll-by-poll results here in the last election, its hard to see how Mike Scott can lose. The Native reservations already vote overwhelmingly (95%+) for the NDP, so there is no loss there over Scott's Nisga'a opposition. Almost all of the non-reserve rural polls voted overwhelmingly for Scott - and they agree overwhelmingly with his position on the treaty, so there is no loss there. In most of the major urban centers, including Terrace, Smithers and Kitimat, Scott has a commanding lead over the Liberal/NDP split, and he has a good comfort zone that needs to be absorbed before he should start worrying. And his Nisga'a stance is no more likely to harm him in these towns than it is likely to solidify his support. The only competitive part of the riding is Prince Rupert, where all three parties are competitive in many parts of the city (the NDP dominates exclusively in a few polls). All of this clearly means that the only real way for Scott to lose is for him to to totally collapse in those parts of the ridings where he crushed the opposite last time and where his Nisga's stance works in his favor - which is obviously not going to happen. Mike Scott will be returned comfortably.
03/11/00 Brad N.
I'll make this short and to the point... All signs point to the Alliance being way up all across BC. They have widened their margin over the Liberals to 18 pts (Ipsos-Reid). The NDP have a whopping 6 pts in the province right now and that really does not put them in any place to win very many seats, let alone TAKE seats from the Alliance, especially considering the Ref. won here with 12% over the NDP last time and there's no way that margin has done anything but widen. This riding will definatly not be falling into the hands of the NDP.
03/11/00 D Johnson Email:
It is a real toss up but I think the riding may even go liberal this time. The economy is terrible shape and I think people are looking for a change. This area traditionally votes in protest and has often voted NDP but this time I think that they may be too pissed off at the NDP provincially and too fed up from seeing no action from the CA.
03/11/00 Blake Robert
This is not one of those communist Vancouver ridings I was talking about. Mike Scott will return to Ottawa comfortably. Honestly folks, give your head a shake if you think otherwise.
06/11/00 M. A. Price
Get with the program everyone. Mike Scott has retired. He will definitely not be returned to Ottawa.
07/11/00 Bernard Schulmann
Liberals have won here in the past and will do so this time as people are not going to vote NDP, they are all going to vote Liberal to get the CA out. The Native vote in the riding is large and does vote and will vote for the Liberals.
22/11/00 Dean Johnson Email:
This riding could be a surprise. Yes, it's in rural BC, which is normally an alliance heartland but the incumbent is retiring. The NDP candidate is Larry Guno, a popular former provincial MLA. This riding is provincially NDP and is home to the land of the Nisgaa, whose treaty with the federal government was opposed by the Alliance. The aboriginal vote will go behind Larry Guno and the Alliance will close narrowly.
26/11/00 Email:
Larry Guno is in the best position to take Skeena back from the Alliance fold. Given the Alliance's horrible campaign, the popular Guno will get support not just from Skeena's strong NDP base, but also from strategic Liberal and PC voters as well as disaffected former Reformers.

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Last Updated 26 november 2000

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