Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Surrey Central

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Peter Warkentin
Canadian Alliance:
Gurmant Grewal
Progressive Conservative Party:
Daniel J.Baxter
New Democratic Party:
Dan Goy
Communist Party:
Harjit Daudharia
Green Party:
David Walters

Incumbent:
Gurmant Grewal

Previous Result:
28.98%
8.59%
34.67%
14.03%

Surrounding Ridings:


Misc:
Population:
Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
English
French
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email: mdparkes@msn.com
This riding is a toss up. Alliancer Grewal squeaked through past the Liberals, so expect a similarily tight race on election night. It could go either Liberal or CA, depending on the calibre of the Grit candidate.
24/10/00 EB Email:
The PCs have nominated a young, vibrant candidate. Expect an interesting race!
25/10/00 RJ Email:
The Liberals are importing their provincial VP, Peter Warkentin, who lost the '93 and '97 elections to Randy White in Langley-Abbotsford. The party is providing Warkentin with full financing to try and knock off Alliance MP Gurmant Grewal. In a departure from the '97 election strategy, the Liberals are not running a Sikh in this riding that has one of the largest Sikh populations in Canada. However none of this will be enough to knock off Grewal. Grewal has not offended the old Reform Party core of the Canadian Alliance and he is likely to pick up some of the Liberal's Sikh support. The murder of 10-year old Heather Thomas of Cloverdale will definitely work against the Liberals.
29/10/00 Initial Email:adma@interlog.com
Between the "NDP" North and the "PC" South of Surrey, the "East Asian" (read: latently Liberal) Centre. And forget this year; PC did better than normal in 1997 because they fielded SurCen's only major-party non-Asian! (There was also a non-Asian independent w/9% of the vote.) With memories of that wild'n'wooly '97 race still fresh, and Grewal (Frank's fave chequered-past Parl-Channel token Reform vizmin) still having an "accidental victor" feel, don't be surprised if fur flies once again; though incumbency and CA's ethnic overtures work on Grewal's behalf...indeed, Warkentin's candidacy turns the old Asian/anti-Asian electoral equation inside out...
03/11/00 Ed*B Email:
I would give this one to Gurmant with about a 42-45% vote. In 1997 it was a new constituency. There was a rather ugly fight for the Reform nomination that saw one of the failed candidates running independently and racking up about 7% of the vote. Gurmant has been a successful member of caucus and has won the support of those who had doubts about his commitment to Reform principles. The combination of strong support from the eastern part of the riding (Cloverdale) that has been a Reform stronghold for two elections, and the likely higher vote from the East Asian community for a successful MP and member of their community versus a Liberal outsider, puts Gurmant in a good position to take this one again.
03/11/00 Blake Robert Email:albertatory@hotmail.com
Honestly people... give me a break! People actually think Gurmant Grewal is going to be unseated by a Liberal? That's about as likely as a victory here by Dan Baxter, VP Policy from the disorganized and highly inept PC Youth Federation. Get with the program!
04/11/00 Lindsay Email:dlaroche@home.com
Grewal won last time in this heavily Sikh riding against other Sikh candidates. This time he is the only Sikh and has proven an effective MP. Alliance lock (10-20% margin).
06/11/00 G.H. Email:gheath@udl.com
At this time, this looks like an Alliance/Liberal race. The Alliance definitely has a significant edge despite Liberal hopes to lure some xNDP voters their way. The problem is, the former Reform party has already shown that soft NDP voters are mostly anti-establishment in their leanings and quite inclined to vote Alliance populist over eastern-centric Liberal elitists. It is true that Liberals may pick up some of the urban artist academic bohemian vote that usually goes NDP, but this is a suburban riding, where the bohemian-artist Liberal focus group is minimal. And I believe, in BC suburbs, even the "Soccer mom" vote will go decisively Alliance in this election, due to the key suburban family concerns on lowering taxes and public safety. As previous submissions have shown, crime will likely be a major deciding issue in Surrey Central and Surrey North in this election, and the public is in a "get tough on crime" mood. At this time, I think Alliance will get about 45% of vote, and Liberals will score mid to upper 30s.
07/11/00 Rob McGregor Email:cloverdalerob@hotmail.com
The Alliance will win this seat as well as most others in the west. The Liberals are running Peter "run for anything" Warkentin. Has no ties to the riding but I guess the liberals have to run someone. I live in this area, and although I am not a member of The Alliance Party, the talk in this riding has been about the Liberal's inability to get the job done. This especially true with regard to Justice Reform promised in the red book in the area of the young offenders act, better screening for parole requests and stiffer sentences for crimes against children and women. Mr. Grewal has provided good representation to the Indo-canadian community and that can provide a large basis for election victory. Alliance by 20%.
17/11/00 Brad Nicpon Email:bwnicpon@hotmail.com
All signs in the last few weeks of campaigning have pointed to the Liberals losing significant support in BC. The expected result of this is the Alliance picking up a couple of the Liberals BC holdings... but it is certainly not for the Alliance to be losing seats they already have! Individual Candidates aside (since study after study show they usually have very little to do with voting choices) I highly doubt that the Alliance will lose Surrey Central to the Liberals.
21/11/00 lrs Email:
Ca will want to win this seat to keep one of its visible min candidates- will NDP collapse? if so help LIBS

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Last Updated 24 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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