Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Vancouver East

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Mason Loh
Canadian Alliance:
Sal Vetro
Progressive Conservative Party:
Michael Walsh
New Democratic Party:
Libby Davies
Canadian Action Party:
Brian Bacon
Edna Mathilda Brass
Natural Law Party:
Rosemary Calte
Gloria Kieler
Marijuana Party:
David Malmo-Levine
Green Party:
Kelly Elizabeth White

Libby Davies

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
Libby Davis will win here again. She is popular with her constituents and the issues she advocates are East End- centric.
21/10/00 S.G. Email:
I'm not so sure if this is an NDP hold, my father has a strong and active NDP friend who said he is not voting NDP this election because he and many other NDPers don't like her, and NDP membership is at an all time low, and it is difficult to know if the NDP will get their vote out. It will be interesting to see what happens....
22/10/00 A. Email:
Don't be surprised if Chretien appoints Mason Loh as the Liberal candidate here (is no one even slightly concerned about this affront to democracy that he seems to enjoy using?) The Liberals really don't want Charles Lee to become the candidate and will do whatever it takes to stop him, including appointing their candidate.
24/10/00 Richard Email:
Vancouver East is way too close to call. Davies has been a fairly popular MP, but her party is falling apart faster than the Tories. Not only that, Glen Clarke being arrested will have definite consequences on all NDP candidates in BC, most of their votes may go to the Liberals. Svend Robinson is the only safe NDPer in BC. This is one to watch.
24/10/00 G
Glen Clark's arrest will depress NDP support and move this riding over to the Liberal column.
24/10/00 Chris Delanoy
Sadly, with the new registration rules announced today (10/23), this race could very well come down to which party can cart the most drug addicts and other bums in from the local shelters on election day. The Liberals probably have a manpower advantage in pulling off such an operation, but I think overall, it gives an overall advantage to the NDP, what with Libby Davies' relentless wailing for more federal welfare housing and the such.
25/10/00 Spoon Email:
This will be a very hard fought close election that I think Libby will pull off. Libby believes very strongly in Social issues that people care about and her sincerely will be apparent to her constituencies. Second of all, Mason Loh will appear as a drop in candidate from the West Side of Vancouver. Libby has proven herself as an outspoken member of parliment over the last 3 1/2 years and will continue to do so for many years to come.
26/10/00 CM EMAIL:
This is the poorest riding in BC, possibly in all of Canada. Libby Davies has been an excellent consituency MP. The NDP will hold on to this riding.
26/10/00 Cameron Email:
Libby Davies is well known in the city, being a former city councillor and ran for the Mayor's job prior to being elected an MP. She's fought on issues that are important in this area - poverty, housing, etc. This riding includes the poorest postal code in Canada and is a provincial NDP stronghold. Davies will take this in a walk.
29/10/00 A.S.
Hallowed NDP ground, despite its 1993 hiccup. Unfortunately, this is Glen Clark's home turf; and he ain't no Huey Long (I guess). But the mitigating factor is that the now-skimpy BC NDP federal caucus is virtuous enough to possibly make one forget Glen Clark. Thus I'm leaning t/w--but still holding back from--a Libby victory prediction.
29/10/00 Chris Chmelyk
The BC NDP is still a formidable electoral machine, with thousands of workers and volunteers. They know that they only have a shot at 5 or 6 BC ridings, so count on them to pour the folks and resources into this riding. As well, Libby Davies is approaching Svendesque popularity in the riding, owing to her formidable constituency work, and well-publicized advocacy on housing and post-secondary education issues (look for strong CFS support). The party may sit at 10 % in the province, but Davies will get 40%+ -- more than enough to win the riding. Skeena and New West may be uphill battles for the NDP, but they will keep all three incumbents.
31/10/00 Happy Man Email:
Mason Lo is extremely well-organized and will have more workers and volunteers than Libby Davies. Will appeal to the Chinese vote, which is substantial. The NDP vote is also collapsing across the province. Probably only Svend is safe.
01/11/00 WW Email:
I certainly hope that Libby Davies retains her seat because she is seemingly a good MP. Also, I am certainly amazed at how much bickering there is in the Liberal Party. Mason Loh was appointed so Charles Lee couldn't be the candidate for the Liberals? That is amazing and not surprising at the same time. Chretien did the same thing with Sophia Leung in Vancouver-Kingsway in 1997.
03/11/00 EP Email:
As a Chinese card carrying liberal who resided in Vancover, my opinion of Mason Loh is nice guy, made lots of contribution to the community, but has political sense of a mushroom. In terms of credentials, and political experience, Libby Davis is by far the better choice. Tight race, but Mason Loh is going to win simply because the NDP is in disarray.
03/11/00 Blake Robert
This is one of the communist Vancouver ridings I was talking about. Libby Davies will likely be returned to Ottawa.
04/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
The Liberals have a strong local organization in this vulnerable riding. Mason Loh has excellent contacts in the areas large Chinese community, and has recruited organizers with contacts in several other key ethnic blocs. The incumbent's excellent work on the constituency side will not be the assets some think, as turnout among the lower-income voters who she has aided is notoriously low. It is one of the unforunate facts of politics that MPs doing the right thing, and attending to the needs of the vulnerable in their community, is not automatically rewarded by the middle-class voters who dominate election turnout. The Liberals will take this seat, so long as their support in the Vancouver area remains at a reasonable level.
05/11/00 Interested Voter Email:
Libby Davies is once again overwhelming this area with a sea of NDP orange signs. While she is the closest one can ever get to being a Marxist without living in Cuba, the people love her. She is a dedicated MP who does her constituency work. Expect a high voter turnout and Libby on top with more votes than last time. Hard to believe, what with the provincial dippers about to be annihilated, but she will win again.
06/11/00 Wilson Wong Email:
I have driven around this riding and so far, the signs for Libby Davies seem outnumber the ones for Mason Loh by about 10 to 1 so I am predicting an NDP victory based on this and the fact that Libby is very popular and hard working. However, it will be very close. The reason that there are not as many Liberal lawn signs is because many Chinese voters (the bulk of Loh supoorters) tend not to not get involved with lawns signs and such. They will remain loyal and vote Liberal on Nov. 27 but I don't think it will be enough to unseat Libby.
06/11/00 Dennis Baher
Someone needs to get the dialogue going in Vancouver East so here we go. I live in Vancouver East and most certainly will be voting Liberal on Novemeber 27, 2000 and maybe even knocking on a few doors in the weeks to come. While this may be the closest race in BC on November 27 and with the NDP throwing all of their resources, time or money into holding onto there three BC seats, Libby will fall due to the unpopularity of her provincial counterparts and a much better and stronger campaign team put together by Mason Loh, the Liberal candidate than Libby's previous opponent, Anna Teranna was ever able to assembe. With about 30% of the riding being of Asian descent this will also help Mason Loh who is of Thai descent and well know within the Chinese community. This is another factor that bodes well for the Liberals as they try to maintain a half dozen or so seats in BC.
Editor's Note: Bashing previous candidates seems to be a popular sport. I was part of the Teranna campaign and I can assure you that Anna was an outstanding MP and candidate, and her campaign team was no less impressive than Libby's team or Loh's team.
08/11/00 Bernard Schulmann
I think the Liberals have a good chance to regain this seat. But counting out Libby Davies woudl be folly. Frankly I expected her to be a stronger presence in Ottawa than she was, but maybe she will be if re-elected. The riding was NDP safe turf, but now with the utter collapse of the NDP in BC (50% points behind the Liberals provinciallY and VERY distant third federally), I am not sure that there are the numbers there to re-elect Libby. The one thing the NDP has always relied on has been a bigger volunteer base than the other parties to make up for the chronic shortage of money they face. After Glen Clark, the volunteers are staying away or working for the Liberals to oppose the CA. Still, I would not put money on this race either way.
09/11/00 Candice Walker Email:
FYI, Mason Loh was not appointed by the Prime Minister. Charles Lee dropped out of the race shortly after Mason Loh announced he's going to see Liberal nomination. Mason Loh was acclaimed since there were no other candidates seeking Liberal nomination. Mason Loh has been active in the Chinese community (in particular the Chinatown area) serving as chairman for SUCCESS, an immigration support society. With ~30% of the population in Vancouver-East being Asian, this riding can very swing in Liberal's favor.
12/11/00 Bill Clendinning
While Mason Loh is finally out in force, the majority of lawn and window signs in East Van are for Libby Davies. Though she didn't make a breakthrough in the leaders debate, Alexa spoke well to the issues that mean the most here, and Libby will benefit as a result. Vancouver East will re-elect Libby Davies.
12/11/00 Mark P. Email:
Both the Georgia Straight and the Vancouver Province have reported that Mason Loh was (or was almost) a member of the Alliance. Moreover, at one stage it appeared that he was likely to stand for the Alliance in the riding of Vancouver Quadra. How this will play out in Vancouver East, I'm not sure, though I would suggest that it provides ammunition for the incumbent. One left wing candidate vs a raft of right wing candidates in a centre-left riding.....
18/11/00 CC Email:
A recent national poll when broken down showed the NDP with a *13* point gain in Vancouver. That will concentrate into a couple of riding like this one and Van Centre. I think Libby's looking safer by the day, especially as the strategic vote (vote Lib to beat the CA) nonsense is being shown up for the fraud it is.
21/11/00 TPM Email:
If the BC voters want a strong voice in Ottawa we should do well to remember that Mason will probaply get a cabinet post in the first shuffle and a pairlimentary sec postion right out of the gate . He was the favored choice in Van East and will make a great MP
21/11/00 lrs Email:
this will be a seat everyone may be watching if NDP close to losing official party status- LIBs do not have much to gain- but with CA not forming government will people vote NDP- if cannot hold this seat- then people are going to wonder where did the left wing vote go to? voting for a tax cutting LIb party when no threat of of a CA victory
23/11/00 John Milliken Email:
This riding will stay with Libby Davies. There is simply no way that the voters in this poor riding will turf out one of parliament's most vocal anti-poverty and social issues advocates. Wealthy Mason Loh, who hails from the upper crust area of the West side of Vancouver, really will have no credibility with these voters. Moreover, Loh is a former Alliance member who wanted to run in Vancouver Quadra, a rich riding that has nothing in common with Vancouver East. A Davies victory here really will happen.
25/11/00 Michael Carney Email:
With respect to the comments above on Loh quickly becoming a cabinet minister: without access to Liberal party secrets and based solely on information available to the public, this seems unlikely. The Liberals already have a cabinet minister from the city of Vancouver (Dhaliwal), and another from just across the river (Chan in Richmond). Both look very safe. According to the news media Steven Owen in Vancouver Quadra became a Liberal candidate in response to a personal phone call from the Prime Minister; the media are touting him as a star candidate. Compare this to Loh who may or may not have approached the Alliance to run for them (he says the Alliance approached him, the Alliance say he approached them). I think that Owen would make it to Cabinet before Loh. Are the Liberals really going to appoint 3 cabinet ministers from the city -not the metro area, the city- of Vancouver, in addition to the one from Richmond, and Anderson from Victoria if he wins? It doesn't seem likely to me. I have no prediction on who's going to win here - it's certainly too close for a casual observer like *me* to call.
26/11/00 LA Email:
Edna Brass has apparently pulled out and is encouraging her supporters to vote for Libby Davies. I don't imagine she had more than a few hundred identified supporters, and she may not be able to reach them and/or convince them to get out and vote, but her move certainly doesn't hurt the NDP here.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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