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|Although there is a controversy regarding the Musqueam nation landlease here, Ted McWhinney will be re-elected.
|M. A. Price
|This will be a wonderful race to watch. McWhinney is retiring and the Liberal nomination has been handed to Stephen Owen, a highly respected former BC deputy minister, Commissioner on Resources and Environment, and Ombudsman. Owen is a prize candidate and will hold the riding for the Liberals. In fact, look for Owen to be a senior minister if and when the Liberals win the election.
The Alliance has just nominated Kerri-Lynn Findlay, who gained notoriety as the official spokesperson for the Musqueam leaseholders. Findlay is well spoken, a much-needed female candidate for the Alliance, and will give Owen a good fight.
|As the campaign gets under way, one has to begin with the expectation that high-profile (and potential cabinet material) Stephen Owen will hold this seat for the Liberals. However, one can certainly envision a scenario in which the Alliance shreds the Liberals in B.C., and Kerry-Lynne Findlay is well-known enough to complete a wipeout of the Liberals in the province. And the Quadra does contain the affluent and right-wing provincial constituency of Vancouver-Quilchena, so Findlay has a strong base of support. Count this in the Liberal column for now, but let's not be shocked if the situation changes.
|If I was feeling a little frisky tonight, I might just have put this one in the Alliance column. McWhinney has retired - and in an open seat, anything could happen. Both the Liberals and the Alliance have strong candidates and are going to run hard in what will definitely be a close race. But I've give the Liberals the advantage from history...
|Although I still believe Owen will win the riding for the Liberals, I have just learned that the PC's have nominated Bill Clarke, who was the popular Tory MP until 1984 when he was defeated by John Turner. This will throw a whole new set of dynamics into the race. While the Tories are almost non-existent in the polls in BC, Clarke will most definitely siphon off some votes from Owen and the Liberals. This could very well be the closest race in the entire election.
|"John Napier Turner wuz here". Though current CA overtures and the candidate may make a difference, I'd normally think the ferocious Point Grey-UBC affluence inflects, in an uptown-Toronto kind of way, more Grittily than CCRAPpily. And though Clarke may be an old coot, remember that Geoff Chutter got his party's best BC result here in '97...
| This riding has been burned with an appointred candidate before. Kerry Lynn Finlay a star alliance candidate. BC polls point to Alliance Landslide. Alliance upset in the making.
|I don't doubt that the Alliance will gain more votes here than in the previous election, but it won't be enough. This one's going to Stephen Owen. The only real difference I see between this election and the last is the presence of a couple of thousand new voters - residents at UBC - who would not have been present for the previous election by virtue of its date. Does this make a difference? It certainly does for the Alliance - students as a group are more left-wing than their older counterparts. This shall remain a part of the Liberal's western beachhead.
|The lack of a Liberal incumbent, the halving of Liberal poll numbers according to Compas and the appeal of the Alliance fiscal's policy among the more posh neighbourhoods of this riding mean the Alliance will likely take John Turner's old seat.
|Alliance fears NDP losses will be Liberal gains
The Alliance, meanwhile, has confidently put two new B.C. ridings in their ''sure thing'' file -- Kamloops, currently held by NDP MP Nelson Riis, and Vancouver-Quadra, a riding Alliance strategists dub an ''old money'' seat being vacated by Liberal Ted McWhinney. A strong Tory candidate in Quadra -- the riding once held by John Turner, the former Liberal prime minister -- bled about 9,000 conservative votes away from Reform in 1997. The Conservatives' vote has now all but disappeared, with polls pegging Tory support at about 2%.
|I thought this election might be up in the air. After all, this is a wealthy riding, the home of the APEC incident and Finley had a huge local victory with the rents to Native title holders at the Supreme Court. However, the Alliance has been putting their feet in their mouths again and again. The most recent incident, with CA candidate Betty Granger complaining of an "Asian Invasion" on the West Coast, will push East Asian voters and opponents of intolerance away from the Alliance and toward the Liberals. That should put the Liberals over the top.
|With the Reform Alliance's latest dumb statement regarding an "asian invasion" on the west coast, they can kiss any hope of swinging this riding away from the Liberals. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
|This is the third Federal election(4th for some,including '88)where the policies of reasonable opposition have been shouted down by the ruling elite. Come on, Vancouver Quadra, you apparently wealthy bunch,and everyone else,let's give these other guys a kick at the can.... If we don't like them we can always kick them out next time.
|High income riding on west side of vancouver. Incumbent was Liberal, but won by small margin in 1997. This election a PC candidate is running, but is unlikely to draw many votes as it is a clear contest between Liberals and Alliance. Riding is generally disenchanted with Liberal arrogance and disinterest in Province along with the dubious ethics of Prime Minister. On other hand, the Liberal candidate, Stephen Owen is exceptional: has excellent reputation and high profile, having been the Ombudsperson and Deputy AG of BC. He would in ordinary times be a shoo-in but the Alliance candidate is a much better campaigner and handles pulic and media forums much better. As well, having been a long-time Liberal and a partner with a prestigious downtown law firm, she appeals to the affluent westsiders in thsi riding. Of course, Ms. Findlay has acquired a public profile recently as spokesperson for the Musqueam tenants who recently won a decision in the Supreme Court of Canada. While some of her tactics in that dispute may have won over people in the riding who are skeptical of first nations land claims and the like, the "racial edge" she brought to the dispute may have put others off. Election will be close. The main obstacle to a victory for Ms. Findlay is probably the national campaign and image of the Alliance as warmed over fundamentalist wing-nuts from the Reform Party who have a secret agenda on issues like gay rights, abortion, the Charter of Rights, and social programs. The main disadavantage that faces the Liberal Candidate Stephen Owen is the same kind. People in the riding are thouroughly disgusted with the lack of integrity and vision projected by Jean Chretien. This antipathy is tempered however by the realization that Chretien will likely be elected as a result of eastern votes no matter how they vote and the furhter comforting knowledge that he will likely resign and be replaced in very short order by Paul Martin within 2 to 3 years even if he is elected.
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Last Updated 26 November 2000
© 2000 Milton Chan
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