Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Election Night View Guide
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1900 EST: The "Distinct" Time Zone (2030 Local)

Newfoundland will once again be the first province to close its polls. Observers may recall the "Fred's in, Fred's out" episode from last election. Few expect this in this election. Bonavista-Trinity-Conception seems to be in good hand with newly minted Industry Minister Brian Tobin. The Torries in St. John, Norman Doyle and Loyola Hern, were thought to be in tight races earlier, but St. Joe certainly resurrected them and keep them safe in the past two weeks. It would be a long night for the Liberal if Tobin, O'Brien or Byrne (There is no way that George Baker is going down) go down to defeat. In the other hand, the night would be over for the PC if they don't keep St. John.

Race to watch:
Burin-St. George's
Liberal passed an outstanding candidate and decided to take a turncoat. If the race was between Liberal Synard and PC Matthews, the outcome would be easy to predict. With Matthews running for the Liberal, PC Fred Pottle will likely regain the seat. Any of the three can win.

1930 EST Battlefield Maritime (2030 Local)

The fates of three parties are tied to these polls. For the Liberal, they need to win back the former stronghold such as Acadie-Bathurst, Beauséjour-Petitcodiac, and Bras-d'Or-Cape Breton, while hanging on to close seats in PEI such as Malpaqe and Egmont. For the Conservatives, their "final week bounce" and Clark's leadership would be put to test. They need to hold on to their current seats and perhaps gain one or two on PEI, as they expect few gains from anywhere else. For the NDP, they need to make sure they are not virtually wiped out and reduce once again to non-party. In Nova Scotia, quoting Herald's Don Macdonald, it might be "four retreaded Tories, three surviving New Democrats and four resurrected Grits."

Race to watch:
The outcome of this race will determine whether a Newfoundlander or a Nova Scotian will be the overlord of maritime in the Liberal government. NDP Wendy Lill needs to fend off attack from two very credible candidates. Liberal Bernie Boudreau resigned his senate seat to took on the task of party rebuilding. PC bet their chance with former provincial minister Tom McInnis. Though one should take into account that both Boudreau and McInnis conceded that Lill is ahead earlier last week. A tight three way race.
West Nova Even the Liberal organizer did not expect the groundswell, but Robert Thibault seems to ready to unseat the relatively low profile incumbent Mark Muise. However, with St. Joe's strong showing, the outcome of this seat is rather uncertain.
Cardigen All four PEI seats are suppose to be "Too Close to Call", but none of them is this close. Solicitor General Lawrence MacAulay won this seat with only a few dozens vote last time. This time, the youngest provincial minister Kevyn J.MacAdam decided it's time for a change. Again the outcome will be depended on the magic of St. Joe.
Tobique-Mactaquac Incumbent Gilles Bernier worked pretty hard on issues that count in the past few years, and was suppose to be be safe. However, the Alliance decided that this is their best chance in the Atlantic. That may allow Liberal to squeak through. Bernier is probably counting on the popularity of Premier Bernard Lord to win this seat for him.

2130 EST Almost All the King's Men (2130 ON/QC, 2030 SK/MB, 1930 AB)

For eastern viewer, I hope you enjoy your two hours break. For everyone else except BC, welcome to the show. By now you should have a pretty good idea of what's going on (not like you don't know that yesterday). 234 of the 301 seats will be determined at this time (Actually Kenora-Rainy River and Thunder Bay will close early).
In Quebec, although the Bloc and the Liberal are tied in the polls, the Bloc is expected to win way more seats they the Liberals (just think about PLQ with Jean Cherest). Their success shall be measured by how many seat they can gain.
In Ontario though, with 50% in the poll, the Liberal sweep is once again expected. The Alliance gradually reduce their goals from Jason Kenney's "8 for sure, 40 likely" to just a handful if they are lucky.
The Alliance is expect to share their seat with Liberals in Manitoba, and with NDP in Saskatchewen. Without much surprise, Alberta will remain its political landscape.

Race to watch:
NDP targets various riding in this election, but only has reasonable chance in three: Trinity Spadina, Sault Ste. Marie, and Windsor St. Clair. If there is one seat to gain, this will be it. NDP owns this seat both provincially and municipally. This time around they secured an outstanding candidate in prominent Globe writer Michael Valpy. However, they had an outstanding candidate in Olivia Chow last election as well and failed to win. Although Liberal incumbent Tony Ianno has few respect from fellow Liberals (rumour was that many Queen's Park Liberal staff went volunteer for Valpy to unseat Ianno), he does have a robust machine for this muti-cultural riding.
The "CA Hopefuls"
The Alliance has a decent shot in all of these ridings. However, with Stockwell Day's poor showings in the recent polls, don't expect more then one or two of them will go CA. They are: Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Erie-Lincoln, Haliburton-Victoria-Brock, Leeds-Grenville, Nepean-Carleton, Simcoe-Grey and St. Catharines.
This was originally a Alliance target, but for some reason turned into the only PC hopeful in the province. The Torries were within striking distance in 1997. Any major drift of Reform support will carry Police Chief David MacKenzie over. However, a drift from Reform to PC seems to be against common logic in Ontario. And after all, it was Stockwell Day that thumped about Law and Order, not Joe Clark.
Liberal HQ placed a lot of resource and one damn good candidate Serge Marcil in this riding trying to unseat Daniel the "Turpentine". However, with the Torries collapsing in Quebec this time, the soft nationalists that voted for PC will likely push Turp over the top.
Cabinet Minister Gib Normand won this seat in a three way races with 47 votes. Really anyone's bet. PC is no longer a factor this time. The direction of the PC votes will decide the outcome.
Another riding with magin of victory small then 1%. The BQ incumbent decided not to go through the stress once again. The drift of the PC votes will decide the outcome.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Compton-Standstead, Shefford
This three former PC MPs crossed the floor to Liberals within the last year. The "punishing turncoat" factor does not seems to be an issue here. All three of them have quite a bit of personal appeal. However, the Liberals votes were not strong in these ridings in 1997. Can go either way.
Lavel Trio
This three ridings are bellweather ridings. All of them had really small margin in 1997.

Torries only seat east of Quebec, and they certainly invested massive amount of resource into this riding to keep it. It will be interesting to watch whether Rick Borotsik will survive the CA rural sweep.
Former Liberal MP Elijah Harper was defeated by NDP Bev Desjarlais in 1997. The show is on once again, but result will probably be different.
Calgary Centre
Enough coverage by the media, no further explaination necessary. (Liberal for Joe?)
Edmonton West
Enough coverage by the media, no further explaination necessary. Perhaps we shall see the 1993 judiciary recount again.
2200 EST: Go West (1900 Local)

The Liberals may come into this riding a few seats short of majority (or they might have that in the bag already and its time for you to turn off the TV). All the Liberal seats seems ot be shaky earlier, but have solidified. Most observers predict no change in BC's political landscape.

Race to watch:
Environment Minister David Anderson is once again in a tight race (and whether he wins or not this will probably his last) against once prominent Young Tory now Alliance Bruce Hallsor. Liberal HQ rushed in organizer last time to save him. Will that strategy work this time remains to be determined. One consideration is that NDP is running former mayor David Turner, who might drain quite a bit of Liberal Vote. In the other hand NDP collasped in BC, so the 22% NDP vote in 97 may drift to Anderson.
Vancouver East
NDP Libby Davis won this race in a nasty fight last time from a Liberal Anna Terrena. This time the PMO appointed Mason Loh, head of SUCCESS (the biggest Chinese organization in Vancouver) to run, without checking his right wing Alliance ties. The Chinese factor may not be as big of an issue in Vancouver East as Vancouver Quadra, where Loh wished to run as an CA candidate.
Kamloops, Thompson and Highland Valleys
20 years Ottawa veteran Nelson Riis is again is a "fight of his political life". Though this time around it seems more likely that he will lose. All polls are pointing to a sounding defeat, but will Riis go down that easily??
Port Moody-Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
The closer you get to Vancouver, the stronger the Liberals. This riding was won by Sekora when he was a popular mayor. Alas parliament hill is a bigger league, and Sekora just does not seem to fit in the Liberal rank. As most of the organizer will be in Victoria in E-day, this riding will be traded for New Westminister-Burnaby.
Canadian Federal Election Riding-by-Riding Prediction
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Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan

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