Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Brandon-Souris

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Dick Scott
Canadian Alliance:
Gary Nestibo
Progressive Conservative Party:
Rick Borotsik
New Democratic Party:
Errol Black
Independent:
Colun Atkins
Communist Party:
Lisa Gallagher

Incumbent:
Rick Borotsik

Previous Result:
17.73%
35.59%
32.00%
13.42%

Surrounding Ridings:


Misc:
Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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03/10/00 Mark A. Schaan Email:
Rick Borotsik is a pretty safe bet here. Although he's an island in Alliance territory, things look pretty good from him.
09/10/00 L.O. Email:
Too Close.
Even though I'm not from the region, I know people who will probably be working on Rick Borotsik's campaign. Well, some of them. Some have quit politics or gone to the alliance.
What really makes it uncertain, however, is the success of the provincial NDP in Rick's area in the recent provincial election. Now Doeer's machine may try to aid the federal NDP candidate there. This could hurt Rick. It may not be enough for an NDP candidate to win, but it could help the Alliance move up the middle.
Results last time were close:
Rick Borotsik PC 13,161
Ed Agnew Ref 11,836
The NDP MLAs have been trying to sweeten the pot for voting NDP. they may do the same for their federal counterparts.
10/10/00 Richard Email:
Rick is the most popular Tory next to Elsie Wayne. The people of Brandon really like him. Look for his strongest challenge to come from the Liberal Mayor of Souris, but I think that Rick will pull through.
11/10/00 Peter Smith Email: smithy6ca@yahoo.com
I lived there for 6 months. I was there during the provincial election (in Brandon). The talk around the doughnut shop was always either NDP or a little CA. I think the people voting NDP will hurt the PC MP and allow the CA candidate to win.
12/10/00 Don MakAskill Email: Don_MakAskill@canada.com
Borotsik's organization is smaller. He has NDP MLA's running around his riding. The Canadian Alliance/Reform folks picked up some of his activists. This is a fight between Borotsik and the Alliance with the Liberals and NDP hurting the PC's...
13/10/00 L.O. Email:
I recently found some more press coverage that points to possibly some Liberal strenth in this riding - particulrly in Souris. If that, plus the NDP members elected provincially are any indication...This race is wide open. too close to call.
16/10/00 Drew Ostash Email: drewostash1@yahoo.com
The PC's are very well respected here. Even though the Alliance is gaining support, I cant see them taking this riding. With Joe Clark being in the riding and showing the community of Brandon what a true gentleman he is. He can bring people to his feet and make this people in this riding listen and respect him. Stockwell Days and his religious views are way out of wack and hopefully the voters wont vote for a man who changes his mind on his policy daily.
17/10/00 Michael Email:
I think that social and fiscal morality will win out in this great riding over a lack of social morality in the current 'PROGRESSIVE' Conservatives. Rick Borotisik's pull at the wheat is over. Alliance by a landslide.
17/10/00 Ryan Osudar Email:
I know Rick personally, and he has the knowledge and energy to represent this riding better than any other canidate. The PC Party has the only policies that can relate to all parts of the country and this ring being one of them, I only hope the voters will see that Rick is the only man for the job, because the CA should not be able to gain many voters here. So I think the PC Party will win because of the honesty and respect that comes with the Party and Canidate.
18/10/00 Luc Lewandoski Email: luc_lewandoski@hotmail.com
Without a doubt, this is going to be one of the most interesting races in the country. The incumbant, Rick Borotsik is fairly popular, and was elected in 1997 coming off one of the most popular mayorial runs in Brandon history. That being said, he will have to work incrediably hard in order to hold his seat. The Tories NEED him to hold it, so watch for Joe to make an appearance or two during the campaign. Rick's biggest liability lately, has been his public perception over some nasty comments he has made over the year about the CA itself, Tory defectors, and on last year's provincial election night, about the voters of Brandon themselves.(He was giving commentary for a local channel and the local PC incumbant was knocked off - many people have commented on how Rick appeared almost rude and badgering in his comments that night to the Liberal and NDP representatives.) The other three parties have strong candidates lined up, which means strategic voting might drop. Although the CA nomination is not until Oct. 21, the current mayor of Brandon, Reg Atkinson is the most likely nominee and will be a stronger candidate then the previous Reform candidate because he has a strong rural support base, and is a more moderate candidate. The Liberals are going with Brandon Police Chief, Dick Scott, but he faces hostility from those upset over Liberal farm aid, and those upset with the seemingly political delay in an annoucement about the future of CFB Shilo, and important economic force in the riding. A university professor, Errol Black is the NDP candidate, and while it will be a frosty day in hell when Brandon-Souris elects a NDP MP, Prof. Black is well-known and fairly well-liked by the local left wing movement thus robbing the liberals of the soft-left support they would need to succeed in a split between the PCs and CA. Head to head, I believe the nod needs to go to the CA, as Rick was a better candidate in 1997 then today, and the CA is in better national shape then the beleaguered Tories......
19/10/00 Lynn Email:
The Chief of Police is running for the Liberals, and Atkinson may not win the Alliance nomination. There is a strong Liberal base, and if the people of Brandon realise that they need a Government MP to get things done, Borotsik could be defeated.
19/10/00 PS Email:
Mr. Rick Borotsik is well-liked and respected in his riding. He not only works for the people in his area, but he cares about the future of Canada. Rick is extremely energetic, and is popular amongst youth, middle-age and senior citizens.
Rick is the best representative for this area. I think the voters realize this, and will not jump on the Alliance bandwagon or go Liberal either.
19/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email: 4zeke@writeme.com
Now let's look at who is likly to gain votes. Well, the Alliance is on a decided upswing in the Western provinces (COMPAS Oct 2000.) So they stand to gain some votes, probably at the expense of the PC's. Now the NDP just won provincially, and so the NDP might get a boost, but from whom? Probably not the Alliance, most likly the Tories again. There is no real reason that I have seen here to belive that the Alliance will not win this seat.
20/10/00 luke avery Email: luke_avery@hotmail.com
rick is a very self worth and known man in the cty of brandon and he will win the election because he is a very well dignafied man. rick will win because he is the best polotician brandon has ever seen. The PC's have a large presence here. The will win, and Stockwell will be shut out of this beautiful conservative riding.
20/10/00 J Smith Email: the_freakxxx@hotmail.com
Borotsik is a popular MP in this area. He stood up for Western farmers during the farm crisis, and will likely be rewarded for his efforts by his constituants. The liberals are likely to split the leftwing votes with the NDP, making the Alliance the only real challenger. The Tories will make this a priority in the election, so this riding will likely stay PC.
22/10/00 Luc Lewandoski Email: luc_lewandoski@hotmail.com
The CA nomination meeting was tonight(Oct. 21), with Gary Nestibo, a businessman from the rural part of the riding won. I always thought that the Mayor of Brandon would win, and that he was I stronger candidate, but something else came out tonight that makes me think the CA will prevail in the riding. In 1993 and 1997, the Reform party never lose a seat where they had at least 1500 memberships. In Brandon-Souris, they have 2100! Considering how close the last results were, I'm thinking that pushes them over the hump. It's a closer race with Nestibo as the candidate, but it should still be a CA victory.
22/10/00 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
If Borotsik hangs in, he'll cement the PCs' status as a Canadian version of Britain's Liberal Democrats, with funny little resilient standard-bearers peeking out, defiantly, in the least likely places. It's a sometimes fragile coalition-of-interests constituency, but you got to admire the Lib Dems' spunk. And hey; the top two Tory leadership contenders are running in the other two Prairie provinces...
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
Borotsik is the former Mayor of Brandon, and very popular. He's worked tirelessly for the riding and should win easily.
23/10/00 PC Email:
I think that Rick Borostik will win because of what he has done in the House of Commons, I believe that he will win over the CA because of what he stands for and what he will continue to do for hios riding.
24/10/00 J Smith Email:
The Alliance nominated a candidate with a lot of bagage. He lost his provincial nomination because of some bad business deals. More importanly, the alliance has failed to nominate Borotsik's only real challenger. The Tories, although not as strong as the Alliance in terms of memberships, have a huge Youth presence in this area. The Tories should be able to hold this riding on November 27th.
24/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
This one will be Tory again on the 27th next. The present MP was a very popular former Mayor of Brandon. That helped put him over the top in a unsuspecting place for the PCs. He's done a lot of good work for his riding in the last 40 months. This being a rural riding, incumbency is golden.
24/10/00 Joel McPhail Email:
I just met both the candidates and I believe that Mr. Borostik will win because he has the energy and chrisma that a MP should have. The CA does not have that in this riding so I see a PC victory.
26/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Ok, I don't have much of a prediction here, but I feel the need for a reality check after reading some of the entries... First, for those Libs out there you guys got smoked last time.. only 17% compared to 36% for the winner. This is a CA/PC race (Reform lost by 3.59%). For everyone else I would just like to mention that there is WAY too much emphasis being put on candidates. It is of minor importance that a candidate has energy or "stands for something"... Obviously it didn't matter that much last time since the PCs BARELY won. Especially this election when almost every issue has become a party or Leader issue. I'm not saying it's right, we could use more attention on grass-roots, but it just doesn't work that way.
26/10/00 JG Email:
There is a weak CA candidate plus the Liberals are a bunch of dis organized baffons. So I predict a PC win, and also another 4 years of the great Borostik.
28/10/00 Full Email:
The polls in the national scale don't reflect Brandon-Souris. We are truly Conservative. Mr. Day's policy isnt welcomed here, and his relgious views are shamed on. We need a government which we can trust. And the people of Brandon think that only the PC Party can do this.
30/10/00 J Email:
Rick Barotsik is good MP who deserves re-election. Unfortunately, he's running against a strong incomming CA tide. His local popularity will help but I doubt it will be enough for him to win re-election. The Commons will be a dimished place without him.
31/10/00 full Email:
I think that Rick will win this riding because of what he he is trying to do for the farmers and CFB Shilo. I still firmly believe The PC's will win witha small percentage but a win is still better than a lose. And that the CA will lose support over the next few weeks because of the change of their policy every day.
03/11/00 Luc Lewandoski Email:luc_lewandoski@hotmail.com
Vic Toews, to me, seals this one for the Alliance. He only had a small controversy in dealing with a single union during his tenure as Labour Minister here in the province, and as Justice Minister, he got to be Manitoba's loudest critic of the Gun Registry, something that will play strongly to the rural voters of this riding. I'll be surprised if he doesn't take it.
04/11/00 KP Email:kpaulson@mts.net
Anita Neville is not a star candidate by any stretch of the imagination, and it does have strong history of voting Tory provincially. The PCs are running David Newman, a popular Filmon cabinet minister. Look for a Tory upset...
08/11/00 James T. Chlup Email:J.T.Chlup@durham.ac.uk
The incumbant is a popular in the riding. He should be able to hold on, but it might be tight.
13/11/00 Drew Ostash Email:
The PC's are now on the go, they have everything organized. Gary Nestibo, seems like he can't hold his ground, because of Ricks, amazing popularity.
15/11/00 k. hanly Email:khanly@mb.sympatico.ca
I think that this race will be close. Although Borotsik is popular, and Nestibo has some negative baggage, the Alliance seems to be strong in the area. With the Conservative vote split between the Alliance and Conservatives it is just possible that Errol Black the NDP candidate could win. Black is well known in the area, is a member of city council, and a lifelong local activist.
18/11/00 Bill Email:
Mr. Day had a great time today in Brandon..... I honestly see Rick winning now, witha huge majority because of his experience and intgrity and Nestibo being the loser because of his land deal in the western part of the riding, also he seems to be a very selfish person.
17/11/00 lrs Email:
another swing seat- I am assuming that chretien( to the best of my memory) has not come to riding) that battle is between the PC and the CA- will this be seat that Liberal voters will shift PC to prevent CA from winning- and where will NDP smaller vote go? due to popularity of PC candidate( will native vote go PC-that would be a change)probably a PC hold
20/11/00 Doug McLachlan Email:dmc_highlander
As someone not on the ground, I'm curious how people there feel Ms. Granger's announcement that she is stepping aside will affect the election? Will soft Liberals feel free to punish the government in the riding now that the "anyone but Day" threat has been removed?
21/11/00 PT Email:
As an outsider, Borotsik comes across as a putz in the media. I'm surprised by the comments that he continues to be popular in the riding, as even for diehard Tories he's an embarrassment almost every time he opens his mouth.
23/11/00 B.H. Email:
It's definately a toss-up, but with the edge to the CA. You guys missed this riding in 97 because you under-estimated how solid the Reform/CA vote is here. In 93 it was the Liberals winning with Reform a close second, P.C.'s a distant 3rd. In 97 it was the P.C.'s winning with Reform a close second, and the Liberals a distant 3rd. The common thread is the solid Reform/CA vote. It continues to grow (albeit slowly), while the others are soft (up and down). Nestibo has beaten down a bit of baggage from a previous provincial run with a sincere statement early in the campaign, and is now seen as a genuine candidate with a good shot. I give the nod to the CA.
25/11/00 randy gorman Email:
A popular mp in Rick Borotsik, it will be a tight race but my prediction here is Rick will pull this one out once again by a hair.
26/11/00 Luc Lewandoski Email:luc_lewandoski@hotmail.com
My last submission, I promise: Here's the reasons I see this one going Alliance: 1)STRONGER PC PARTY IN 1997 -Despite having two seats then and fifteen now, the party had a sense of growth to it. Now, it's fighting for it's life and everyone knows it. Holding onto the seats it won in 1997 is not a victory. Good campaign or not, I can't see it being a plus to be a Tory in this election. 2)STRONGER RICK IN 1997 - Rick was a highly popular mayor, and since then some aggressive comments and his hard-line stance on the CA has turned people off. One of those rare times that the incumbant was better when he wasn't..... 3)STRONGER ALLIANCE TODAY(At least locally) -2100 memberships alone. That in itself is one-sixth of the need 12,500 votes needed to win this race. Throw in lots of disenfranchised Tories, and it's looking pretty potent. 4)DICK SCOTT -Dick's a strong candidate, and there's even talk that he can take it. That's EXTREMELY bad for Rick, because both Borotsik and Scott are going after the moderate centrist vote. If it had looked like either of them had taken a lead, strategic voting might have come into play to stop Gary. But right now, no one knows where the smartest place to make that strategic vote is. Some of Rick's 13.5K votes last time were Liberals mad at a useless MP. That vote's probably gone back to Dick..... 5)ERROL BLACK - For holding the soft NDP vote, preventing Dick to have visual support that might have started off that strategic voting I talked about.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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