Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Charleswood St. James-Assiniboia

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
John Harvard
Canadian Alliance:
Cyril McFate
Progressive Conservative Party:
Curtis Moore
New Democratic Party:
Dennis Kshyk
Communist Party:
Greg Crowe

John Harvard

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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03/10/00 Mark A. Schaan Email:
John Harvard should be just fine here. He's boring as dirt but he's a good MP.
17/10/00 Garth Email:
John Harvard's biggest opposition will be confsion in this riding. Two by-elections were called this morning, both in Tory strongholds, both with some land in Charleswood St. James-Assiniboia. Two differnt polling days and at minimum 7 candidates in some areas will confuse a lot of voters. Six extra days should be enough to sort out the mess, but it will still be a headache for any candidate. Even if it is not sorted out, Harvard had more than 7000 more votes than the nearest candidate in 1997 and that should keep him in his chair at the House of Commons.
17/10/00 A.S. Email:
Strangely enough, Harvard fell behind the "united right" in 1997; and prior to '88, this was fairly solid PC country. But from a current standpoint, it's the "Filmon Liberals", not the Alliance fire-breathers, that are more conspicuous within Winnipeg's middle-to-upper-class conservative pattern. Harvard's got a lock--presumably, not a Yale lock. (Groan...)
19/10/00 WMK Email:
John Harvard is a well respected and well known MP. That, combined with the demographics of the area (middle/upper middle class) favour a Liberal victory here. There is a sizeable constituency of right-wing support in the area, but Harvard's willingness to stand apart from his caucus colleagues will give him a certain maverick appeal that will hurt the CA/Tory campaigns. John Harvary will have to work for this one, but I would expect that he'll be re-elected at the end of the day.
05/11/00 RD Email:
McFate will topple Harvard as the Tory support has collapsed. Last election the Reform/PC combined vote was 3000 more than Harvard's. A lot of those votes will come to the CA.
07/11/00 Chris Email:
Although Harvard won with 43% last time, that number will correspondingly drop with the overall drop in Liberal popularity in Manitoba. With the Canadian Alliance being around 43% provincially and the steep drop in PC support, the CA will squeek this one out. Last election the CA and PC voting combined would have defeated the Liberals. Only half the PC vote will be needed this time to win since the Liberal vote will drop.
09/11/00 DC Email:
This is a traditional landslide PC riding both federally and provincially. PC finished ahead of Reform in 97. Following the debate I think Joe Clark is going to be on a roll. Furthermore, without Axworthy around I expect an overall drop in Liberal support in Manitoba. As strategic voters start to realize PC is still alive and kicking the potential PC vote can take the riding handily.
19/11/00 AL X Email:
Harvard has not been a bad MP, however with Liberal support down in Manitoba and a strong well organized campaign by McFate I would have gone out on a limb and said that the Alliance might win this one. However Betty Grangers comments late last week will drop every Alliance candidate (at least in Winnipeg) by a few percent. Now I will not call it. Pretty boy weatherman Curtis Moore intends to do well on his name alone. I heard him on a radio debate and he doesn't have much to offer other then Joe Rules and I hate the Alliance. Quote overheard at the recent provicial PC convention, 'I am campaign manager for Curtis Moore.' Who is Curtis Moore? He's a TV weather man! What does a weather man know about politics? Well he should know that the federal PC ship is in stormy weather and almost sunk.
26/11/00 A. C.
This riding is politically somewhat different than the other Winnipeg ridings; more like a suburban Calgary or Edmonton seat in some ways. It's less authentically Liberal than the others and it's not inconceivable that it could surprise if there weren't a split opposition. But there is, so with a Liberal vote in the 40% range it should be a keeper for Harvard.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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