Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Elijah Harper
Canadian Alliance:
Jason Shaw
Progressive Conservative Party:
Doreen Murray
New Democratic Party:
Bev Desjarlais

Bev Desjarlais

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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03/10/00 Mark A. Schaan Email:
It's North of Winnipeg = NDP
10/10/00 Email:
A Liberal pick up. Once a candidate has been chosen between native leader Elijah Harper (the former MP for Churchill) and Chief Ron Evans, the people of Churchill will chose someone who looks out for them as native people instead of Desjardlais, who is weak and supports mainly unionist causes. She is not well connected with the Aboriginal community of her area. The NDP is very weak right now, and look for Churchill to be an example of this weakness.
13/10/00 Richard Email:
Easy Liberal pick up. I agree with the sentiment that Desjardlais is an ineffective MP who is hardly visible in either her own caucus or in her riding. Cheif Ron Evans is very popular and if he is the Liberal candidate, Bev has no chance of keeping this one. The native vote in this riding is so crucial and Desjardlais is not well connected with that community.
17/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email:
I am not overly familier with this riding but I think the numbers speak for themselves. In the 1997 election, Libs still somewhat popular out west. I don't see the Liberals getting stronger or the CA getting a whole lot weaker. I think that the NDP candidate will hold on to Churchill
17/10/00 Brett Quiring Email:
This is a very strong NDP seat, I have no idea why it has been called for the Liberals. Bev has no reason to be scared Harper since after last election he recieved under 30% while she recieved over 40% Even in 1993 Harper only won the seat but a few hundred votes. The voe of the many mining communities in this riding will remain solidly NDP while the first nation vote will be split between NDP and Liberals. The NDP would have to completely collapse (ala 1993) for them to lose this seat.
290/10/00 A.S.
A few enlightening facts. First--believe it or not--even in his 1993 defeat, Rod Murphy had the country's third highest NDP vote. Secondly, Harper still managed to solidly carry his network of reserves even when the voters euthanized him in '97, so the native vote isn't an automatic badge to success at large. Third: Alliance is a wild card which could help define the race, particularly if they seek to feast on a little NDP resource-town carrion (if it worked in BC, why not Manitoba?). Wait and see.
31/10/00 C.A. Crosby Email:
Desjarlais has not been a high profile MP but this is one of the safer seats for the NDP. Even with a native Liberal candidate, the NDP still gets a large chunk of the native vote. She'll win with something similar to the 40% she got last time.
02/11/00 WJM Email:
If the ALliance starts pilfering votes from the NDP in Flin Flon and other non-native towns, that can only help Harper.
06/11/00 AL
Elijah Harper is not the "star candidate" he was in 1993 when he first took this seat for the Liberals and he's come a long way since his glory days as a provincial NDP cabinet minister. Harper was just another backbench MP in the first Chretien term and there's no reason for voters to flock to him this time. Indeed, with Liberal fortunes in decline in western Canada and with the NDP still polling well in Manitoba and Sasktachewan, this riding should stay in the NDP column.
15/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
Elijah Harper or no, Bev Desjarlais will be returning to Ottawa. I just hope that she gets a better speechwriter this time.
23/11/00 L Hanks Email:
Elijah can win this riding handily if the First Nations voters are motivated to turn out for him, and Stockwell Day has been motivating them for weeks. On top of that, Desjarlais has not been an impressive MP and has barely been campaigning outside of her base in Thompson.
24/11/00 SM Email:
From what I hear, this isn't exactly a stronghold of organized labour, and with Elijah Harper as the candidate for this riding, their is no doubt in my mind that the Liberals can count on Northern Manitoba (Churchill, basically) being painted red. In fact, I think that having Elijah Harper as a Liberal cnadidate in Churchill might help the Liberals elsewhear in Manitoba, I saw one of their commercials on one of the CBC channels based in Manitoba, and the Liberals make no secret of their Churchill candidate, perhaps to increase their chances of winning over Selkirk-Interlakes, and perhaps loosen Inky Marks hold on Dauphin-Swan River, though it would only loosen his hold, not lead to a Liberal victory in Dauphin-Swan River.
26/11/00 JRFD Email:
This is a re-match of the '97 election when Bev Desjarlais got 12% more than Elijah Harper, a very convincing win - which is what you expect from an NDP stronghold. Elijah Harper only won by 4% in '93 when the NDP was at 7% nationally and 16.7% in Manitoba. That year Bill Blaikie was the only New Democrat to get elected in Manitoba and he only squeaked in by 0.6%. From what I understand the NDP support in Manitoba hasn't dropped at all from the '97 election thanks to a popular provincial government so it doesn't seem right that you have half the NDP MPs here going down to defeat. Elijah Harper may be well known for Meech Lake, but he was less than stunning as the MP for Churchill and caries baggage according to the Winnipeg Free Press. Harper was also late getting his campaign off the ground whereas Dejarlais was quick out of the gate. She will also benefit from the NDP's talent for getting the vote out in a traditionally low turnout riding in a likely low turnout election. Switch this to NDP, I'll be shocked if Harper wins.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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