Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Winnipeg Centre

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Kevin Lamoureux
Canadian Alliance:
Reg Smith
Progressive Conservative Party:
Michel Allard
New Democratic Party:
Pat Martin
Communist Party:
Harold Dyck
Green Party:
Mikel Magnusson

Pat Martin

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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09/10/00 Richard Email:
Pat Martin has been a weak MP. Combined with Kevin Lameroux, a former Liberal MLA, who has been working vigorously at doorknocking in the riding, Martin is in extreame trouble. The NDP nationally are very weak which should give the Liberal a slight edge over the NDP.
10/10/00 RSC Email:
Martin will only have a challenge if Phil Fontaine runs for the Libs (high native population) otherwise this is safe NDP.
15/10/00 Boss Jeff Email:
Kevin Lamoureux will take the day. He is a hard constituency worker and is respected in the community. He will fight for the community unlike Pat Martin who spends his time in the house talking about Cape Breton Mining.
15/10/00 Paul Email:
With weak NDP support nationwide, and a perceived two way race between the Liberals and the Alliance, this riding may well go Liberal.
16/10/00 Garth Email:
Kevin Lamoureux may as well be acclaimed in this riding. Demographically and politically, it is looking to elect Lamoureux as a Liberal.
To put the comment of RSC in perspective, consider that Pat Martin himself stood up in the house in early February 1999 (the third I believe) and gave a rough demographic of Winnipeg Centre. He said that there are some 7,800 Filipino people and nearly 6,500 Aborigionals. This is, of course, paraphrased but the numbers are correct. This makes the argument presented by RSC fall apart.
The Native population is less than 10% and if the recent provincial election is of any indication, not a lot of them end up voting. Filipino's have a very strong community across Winnipeg and are very active politically. Combine that with the readiness of the constituency of Inkster (which is around 37% Filipino) to elect Kevin for 11 years and also keep him within 200 votes of a parachute NDP ringer and a provincial party that was quickly falling apart in the 1999 Manitoba General Elcetion, you have a clear winner. The Liberals benefit more from having Kevin Lamoureux running than they would from Phil Fontaine.
Kevin Lamoureux should have no problem picking the 1100 votes to land him ahead of Pat Martin in the polls. Indeed he will probably get many more than he needs, especially as Buzz Hargrove may not send his Union Election Armies out to play and the NDP are dropping quickly in the polls.
If I was Mr. Martin, I would start polishing up my resume.
17/10/00 RSC Email:
If the Lib candidate is so great, why did he lose his seat to the NDP in the last provincial election???
18/10/00 Jason Email:
Kevin Lamoureux has all the credentials to take Winnipeg Center. For 11 years he was the MLA for the Inkster riding. He makes himself accessible, he is a hard worker and he is there first and foremost for the people. Their voices WILL be heard.
Kevin Lamoureux is the best choice for Winnipeg Center. He has 11 years experience as an MLA in Inkster and has all the credentials. Kevin has always made himself accessible to the people and he is first and foremost for the people. The Liberals will get this seat.
18/10/00 WMK Email:
It seems to be a question of momentum in my mind. Pat Martin is a respectable MP, but the NDP is floundering and it doesn't seem like his individual profile is high enough to make up for that. The Liberals are running a strong candidate (Kevin Lamoureux), and I don't expect the Alliance or Tories to be major factors in this race at all.
24/10/00 AL
Gary Doer's NDP government is still in it's honeymoon period. This should help NDP federal incumbents.
30/10/00 A.S.
The nexus between the grubby NDP north and the yuppie Axworthy south; what redistribution taketh away (NDP strength), the 1997 election giveth (a NDP MP, anyway). Lamoureux could come in on a federal Liberal wave; but then, he was swept out by a provincial wave *against* his hapless Liberals. Interesting fed-prov cross-current psychology here--and as this is anything but an Alliance target, who knows who'll come up on top if both Grits and NDP slip...
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield
There aren't enough Dippers in Manitoba to return more than two MPs to Ottawa, and neither of them is running here.
08/11/00 Alex Email:
Having met both candidates, and having lived in the riding for years, I find it hard to believe that Kevin Lamoureux could take the seat. Maybe I'll be wrong, but Pat Martin is an excellent MP and is highly respected in the community. Given the past history of this riding as a solid NDP seat (with a few Liberal interludes), I don't see it changing hands. Sorry to all the Liberal supporters who have tried to influence the predictions for this riding - I think Pat Martin will return to Ottawa.
14/11/00 K.J.P. Email:
For years Lamoureux wooed the Filipino vote by eating their food, attending their weddings and baptisms (many uninvited) dressing in their costumes at Folklorama and even taking trips to the Phillipines. The Filipino community finally abadoned him in the last provincial election after realizing that they were just being used for his political advantage.
He sold his house in Inkster and moved into the Winnipeg Centre riding where he's running federally, because he can't find a job doing anything else.When he loses this time I'm sure you'll see him running for the school board in a couple of years.Big Question!!! Why didn't he stay in Winnipeg North Centre and take on Judy W. ???? Coward!!Pat Martin by 2500.
16/11/00 Jason Email:
Pat Martin is shaking in his boots. If you'd have seen any of the debates, even you would agree. Only a man that is scared, would come off like the ass he is. Kevin is not one that uses people for votes. These are his close friends. The provincial election was lost due to the fact that the people didn't want a Tory government. NDP was the only choice. Liberals were fledgeling provincially. Kevin is also one who likes to actually REPRESENT his riding, hence his move into the Winnipeg Center area.
16/11/00 JRFD Email:
I love Jason's comments. Kevin just moved ther but is already close friends with the people of Winnipeg Center, whereas Pat is just using them for votes. Man I almost fell off my chair, I haven't heard such fantastic rhetoric in a long time. Where do you come up with this stuff. Seriously Pat Martin is a talented MP in a traditional NDP area, he'll keep the seat.
17/11/00 Jason Email:
On another note, I find it totally amusing that a large extent of Pat Martin's vocabulary consists of "brain fart". I can't even bring myself to respect this guy for anything.
18/11/00 lrs Email:
NDP needs this seat to get official party status- but if Liberals lead holding and most polls showing them to be leading in MAN-SASK portion of polls NDP vote is down in these areas- are losses in SASK or Man portion of survey- with CA chance of government nil- does not make sense for NDP voters to switch to Liberals unless they really love the Liberal tax cuts- this is a type of seat that will confirm whether there is a left of centre alternative to three right wing parties- but since the NDP plurality is smaller than other seats - probably will go Liberal
19/11/00 AL X Email:
lrs, What poll is shows that? The last Ipsos Reid poll around Nov. 12th, Alliance 38% Liberals 34% in MAN/SASK. There will be a school board seat open for Kevin after whats Neville bags Winnipeg south centre.
20/11/00 Jason Email:
JRFD Well if you cared to actually take the time to read and comprehend, you would have figured out that I was referring to the people he represented for 11 years in Inkster. THose were his friends. As to the people he knows now in his new riding that support him. Those are the people North of the riding which he represented as an MLA in Inkster. Read and comprehend before you make such judgements that make you look like what Pat Martin loves to say, "A Brain Fart".
22/11/00 Heather Email:
Pat Martin is toast - this riding is definitely going Liberal. Martin's language, and performance in debates is showing just how worried he is about losing his seat. His constituency work has been extremely poor, especially when it comes to casework. Liberal MPs in Winnipeg end up doing most of his casework after his frustrated constituents can't get anywhere through his office. He has not been able to deliver projects to the riding - the only time significant funding has been brought to Winnipeg Centre, it has been due to Lloyd Axworthy's work in West Broadway - lucky for the residents of Winnipeg Centre they had a hard working Liberal neighbour or they would have been totally in the cold. Goodbye Pat, and good riddance.
23/11/00 L Hanks Email:
Martin strikes the right strident tone to hold onto his Granola Belt base, but he has reportedly made some embarassing stumbles in a couple of the riding's significant ethnic communities. As well, Kevin is the hardest working Liberal in Manitoba and he has put together a very capable campaign. The NDP are very worried about this one.
22/11/00 Pat Email:
It will be Kevin all the way. Good responses at the door, he's winning the sign war, he has the ethnic vote, and Pat Martin is getting increasingly chippy and tense at the debates. All the parties are going to steal votes from Martin and his own union vote doesn't even seem to be holding up for him. See Kevin win big!!!!

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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