Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Winnipeg South Centre

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Anita Neville
Canadian Alliance:
Betty Granger
Progressive Conservative Party:
David Newman
New Democratic Party:
Jamie Allum
Communist Party:
David Allison
Marijuana Party:
Chris Buors
Canadian Action Party:
Magnus Thompson

Incumbent:
Hon. Lloyd Axworthy

Previous Result:
55.89%
14.00%
12.45%
15.97%

Surrounding Ridings:


Misc:
Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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03/10/00 Mark A. Schaan Email:
Lloyd may be gone but it will remain Liberal. Although this riding was tough at one point, it certainly hasn't been recently and won't be in the election (whether it's David Asper or Phil Fontaine running!)
10/10/00 Chris Delanoy Email: chris@propertyrights.net
Rumor has it that the NDP candidate here will be Winnipeg's popular socialist mayor Glen Murray. I don't imagine why he'd want to suffer the indignity of becoming a New Democrat MP in Ottawa, but if he does run, this riding will be in the NDP column. (But if he smartens up and stays where he's at, then scratch this prediction and give it to the Liberals.)
11/10/00 EP Email:
Glen Murrey has turned down all offers to run as he feels that he should stay in the Mayor's chair after only two years of service. Though he acknowleged that he was thinking about running for the LIBERAL, not the NDP. Either way, this is Axworthy's riding, and it's going to stay Liberal whether it's Glen or someone else.
13/10/00 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Glen Murray or no, I think the NDP have lately had this (like Herb Gray's Windsor West) bookmarked as a *potential* target riding; their candidate scored a credible second place vs Ax in '97. But counteracting any spillover from the Doer gvt's popularity is the fact that provincially, this is Carstairs country, including the seat of current prov Lib leader and only MLA Jon Gerrard...
19/10/00 WMK Email: alouette27@caramail.com
Though Lloyd Axworthy will not be running again, his formidable campaign machine will be a valuable resource for whoever gets the Liberal nod. The Liberals would be foolish to assume that this riding is a lock, but the only way I could see it going NDP is if they nominate a "star candidate" and hope that the national campaign goes successfully.
24/10/00 J Smith Email:
I don't think this seat is a Liberal slam dunk. The Tories are running former Filman cabinet minister Dave Newman. Without Axworthy on the ballot, the Tories should be able to pull this one out. Tory steal.
06/11/00 AL Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
Anita Neville is no Lloyd Axworthy. After trying hard to lure a star candidate the Liberals have settled for an unknown. Perhaps the would-be stars knew something, that this seat was more a "safe Axworthy" seat than a safe Liberal seat. The Liberals may hang onto Winnipeg South Centre but it'll be with nowhere near the plurality Axworthy enjoyed and if Liberal numbers in the west keep going south the Grits could lose this one.
08/11/00 Kevin Email:kevinl@escape.ca
While Anita Neville is not an unknown (she's WInnipeg's most popular school trustee, according to election returns) and she's not a lightweight by any means, this election is not a coronation. Last election the NDP ran a 24-year-old unknown with no budget, and she came in second: a distant second, to be sure, but you cannot help but wonder what she would have done with some help. This time, the NDP is running a party insider, and they're more likely to give it a hard run. The PCs are running a former provincial cabinaet minister, but it won't help. The bloom is way off the rose for the PCs provincially, and nationally they haven't caught fire yet. The Alliance candidate could be dismissed as a crank if she hadn't won a school board seat in the past two elections. She made a brief national name for herself by contradicting Stockwell Day on health care. Don't expect her national organization to help her. On the onther hand, her views on homosexuality match with Stockwell Day's private views.
19/11/00 Richard Email:
Betty Granger is the nutcase who opened the Alliance to even more labels of racism with her infamous "Asian Invasion" quote. This highly enlightened and educated riding with large pockets of Jewish people will go solidly behind Anita Neville, the Liberal, especially with this kind of bigotry in the Alliance camp. She just as well should have said "none is too many".
20/11/00 AL Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
The self-immolation of (former) Alliance candidate Betty Granger should give the Tories an unexpected boost.
21/11/00 Marc Email:
It seems this Asian Invasion thing won't die! First the candidate flip-flops on resigning, and now there's a computer game being sent around by e-mail, called Asian Invasion! It's like Space invaders, only with a Betty Grainger twist. Pretty funny if you ask me!
22/11/00 Email:
I may be going out on a limb here, but with the Reformer gone, it's down to a two-way race between Allum for the NDP and the Liberal candidate. The Winnipeg Free Press had a story about how this might be an NDP-Liberal race last week (http://205.200.191.20/cgi-bin/LiveIQue.acgi$rec=33838?election ). Axworthy was always a left Liberal. With any chance of an Alliance pick-up gone, the voters of Winnipeg South Centre are free to vote their conscience. New Democrat Jamie Allum may well be heading to Ottawa...
23/11/00 Kevin Email:kevinl@escape.ca
A lot of people in this riding feel liberated by Betty Granger's demise. They respect Anita Neville, but feel that the Liberals need to learn a lesson. Allum has lots of signs up, and I suspect a lot of people will change thier minds at the ballot box.
23/11/00 L Hanks Email:
The Axworthy factor has been highly over-rated by the media and by the NDP candidate who embarassed himself by proclaiming that he was claiming Lloyd Axworthy's mantle of social activism. People must think Lloyd's running around naked because they say he left behind his mantle, his coattails and his big shoes, none of which seem to be a factor in the actual race. The Liberal candidate Anita Neville is a well-known and well-respected school trustee in Winnipeg who has attracted substantial support in her own right, and she has a large, well-funded and well-organized campaign team.
23/11/00 Tom Parkin Email:
I have to agree with the last post. This one is now in the ballpark for the NDP and the Party is putting in the resources to make the final push. I'm not saying it's a done-deal, but the riding should redesignated as a toss-up.
24/11/00 Richard Email:
If anything its a race between the Libs and Tories. The NDP has no shot here whatsoever. This is the richest area in Winnipeg. For heaven sakes, Gary Filmon's riding of Tuxedo and the illustrius Wellington cresent are in this riding. The NDP might win a few polls in the Lord Roberts area, but the Libs should carry this one with the Tories coming in second and the NDP way back in third place.
26/11/00 A. C. Email:wholehan@hotmail.com
The NDP is going to be representing Tuxedo and River Heights? I understand they have some support in Osborne Village and Lord Roberts, but surely 20% would be close to the ceiling for them here. Wouldn't something like Lib 48%, PC 28% and NDP 20% be more likely, besides whatever votes go to Granger and other parties? If the NDP are in the running in South Centre then Winnipeg has changed more than I realize since I left.
26/11/00 Luc Lewandoski Email:luc_lewandoski@hotmail.com
Here's my dark horse pick. David Newman takes the seat for the Tories(replacing the one they're going to lose in Brandon-Souris). Without the CA candidate(whose name will be on the ballot, but for all intents and purposes, she's gone), and with a realitively no-name liberal(come on, who follows school trustees anyways?), Newman can garner the support required. The Winnipeg Free Press endoresed the Tories today, so that will help a bit. Later Lloyd.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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