Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Bernard Thériault
Canadian Alliance:
Jean Gauvin
Progressive Conservative Party:
Alcide Leger
New Democratic Party:
Yvon Godin

Yvon Godin

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:mdparkes@msn
It will be a tight contest with the Liberals, but the edge is given to incumbent Yvon Godin of the NDP. He is a visible MP.
16/10/00 A.S. Email:
An CA target via the back door, not so much because of Doug Young's recent game of Alliance footsie, as because of the long-entrenched Acadian Tory Jean Gauvin running under the Alliance banner. And this, in a riding that Reform didn't even bother to contest in '97...
18/10/00 J Smith Email:
The NDP have set their sites on keeping this riding. Godin has done a good job, and will have the weight of the NDP machine behind him. This one will stay NDP despite a strong Alliance candidate.
24/10/00 A. Email:
Jean Gauvin's candidacy for the Alliance will only help Yvon Godin's re-election efforts. The Alliance has no chance in this area and it will split the right-wing vote.
29/10/00 Claude B.
This riding will go back to its Liberal roots this time around with former provincial Cabinet minister Bernard Thériault (Lib). The anger against the EI reform package and the school closures has faded a bit in the riding, and with it, the hopes of incumbent Yvon Godin (NDP) for a second term.
As a voter in this overwhelmingly francophone riding, I don't expect Jean Gauvin (CA) to do much. Since he got out of provincial politics, Gauvin has worked for an interest group representing boat owners in the crabfish industry., who are quite unpopular with the crowd of fish plant workers.
30/10/00 Claude B.
Nominations are done in Acadie-Bathurst. Here are the candidates (in alphabetical order):
CA: Jean Gauvin, a.k.a. "vroom-vroom" for his flashy official car preferences: businessman, former Tory MLA for Shippagan (1978-1987 and 1991-1995) and provincial cabinet minister. Only 30 people attended his nomination in Paquetville, Sunday Oct. 29, which was not contested. Gauvin plans to attack Thériault's record as a provincial cabinet minister, stating that the Liberals were akin to spaghetti: "Lots of noodles coated with red sauce".
NDP: Yvon Godin, former union organizer and the incumbent MP, has fought hard for EI reform, his ticket to Ottawa four years ago. With a partial reform coming, and the furore over school closures calmed down, the sole New Brunswick NDPer has quite a problem.
PC: Alcide Léger, businessman, owner of a popular bar-restaurant in Tracadie-Sheila. 350 people showed up at his nomination, on Sunday, Oct. 29. Mr. Leger counts on a split among Liberal organizers in this part of the riding to win some votes.
Lib: Bernard Thériault, former MLA for Caraquet (1987-2000) and provincial cabinet minister in the McKenna years. Good constituency man (he's got a reputation as the passport bureau guy in his riding), Thériault's got a problem in the Tracadie-Sheila area. In essence, the issue revolves around the fact that the Caraquet hospital got money a few years ago for renovations, money that could have been spent in Tracadie. Tracadie was liberal for a century provincially, became a Tory stronghold with Elvy Robichaud as MLA (he's now become the Education Minister, in the Lord cabinet). Got the Grit nomination, on Oct. 22 when he defeated a Tracadie-area lawyer, thus increasing the resentment there.
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
The NDP are running a weak 4th in New Brunswick ... polling barely better than the margin of error. Unless this is where all of the NDP voters in the province live, the Liberals win in a romp.
04/11/00 J.W.
With all due respect to Mr. Wakefield, who is writing pro-liberal notices all over this site, some informed opinions at the Kennedy School of Government tell me that this riding can go any of several ways. I, personally, think it's up for grabs well but I will give the nod to the Alliance on this one. Just a gut feeling :)
04/11/00 Hélène Buzzetti Le Devoir
Dans Acadie-Bathurst, la circonscription au nord-est du Nouveau-Brunswick, la politique provinciale s'est transportée sur la scène fédérale. Deux anciens ministres des Pêches, l'un libéral, l'autre conservateur, s'affrontent pour obtenir leur entrée à la Chambre des communes. Le premier est resté «rouge» mais le second a adopté les couleurs de l'Alliance canadienne. Cas d'espèce: Acadie-Bathurst n'est qu'une des quelques circonscriptions de la province où le parti de Stockwell Day viendra brouiller les cartes et peut-être redonner des sièges aux libéraux. C'est le scénario ontarien de 1997 qui migre au Nouveau-Brunswick.
05/11/00 JFB
Yvon Godin a fait un excellent travail comme député. Ce comté demeurera NPD car les gens vont voter pour l'homme, pour un député qui n'a pas hésité à les défendre à tout moment.
06/11/00 Email:
Yvon as a visible MP, will be able to keep this seat
06/11/00 lrs Email:
the crowd Chretien drew in N.B on week-end probably indication of swing to Liberals in N.B especially in Fr.maj. seats-NDP vote a protest in past- line up for the goodies- get a former prov.cabinet to boot
08/11/00 Richard Email:
Well this has to be one to watch in New Brunswick. Yvon Godin has some popular support but the glitch in his campaign comes from the Alliance candidate Jean Gauvin. You see old Yvon won by getting votes on the coastal communities of Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou all the way down to Caraquet and Tracadie. Problem: That`s exactly where Gauvin will get his votes (with the exception of Caraquet - Bernard Theriault's home town) CAN YOU SAY SPLIT and RUN! This one will go to Bernard Theriault. Yvon Godin better stop screamin' and start looking for a job!
08/11/00 J Email:
I have to dispute the crowd figures of the Chetien visit. There may have been about 500-700 people but most of them were from 2 ridings. That is not a large crowd by any standard when you bus people in. Plus, Jean made the faux pas of having to be reminded to ask for forgiveness for the UI changes, the reason the Liberals lost the election in the first place. The Jean Gauvin factor is still hard to gage but he does have the support of the Anglophones who supported the Confederation of Regions party in Bathurst (Talk about strane bedfellows!) plus significant Acadien support. I think this makes it a 3 way race with Godin eeeking out a victory. Alas, Alexa's performance in French is not helping him tonight but her policies will.
11/11/00 R.D. Email:
Alexa McDonough's strong performance in the federal leaders'debate will shore up their core support in Atlantic Canada. I think they will hold most, if not all of their current seats, and may even surprise with one or two more in Newfoundland or N.B.
14/11/00 LS Email:
Godin's campaign team is energized! There's no good reason to vote for the Liberals and the PC's will only split votes with the Alliance. RD may well be right in claiming that the NDP may pick up a couple of new seats in the Atlantic provinces. Regardless, the voters of Acadie-Bathurst will almost certainly re-elect Yvon Godin.
20/11/00 Andrew Steeves Email:andrew
Internal polling with onw week to go shows that Jean Gauvin has a three point lead over the NDP canidate. This is in part to the fact that Mr. Gauvin is a well known individual on the Acadian Peninsula and has a strong following. If Mr. Gauvin ran for the Natural Law party he would still be a contender.
21/11/00 Claude B
It seems the New Democrats and the Liberals are in a fight in Acadie- Bathurst. Many people whom I talked to keep telling me that Thériault's (Lib.) campaign is going nowhere, even though he was the one to whisper Chrétien to talk about EI during his visit in the riding a couple weeks ago. I also noticed that Godin (NDP-incumbent) and Gauvin (CA) have an egde as far as the number of signs are concerned. It will be close here in Acadie-Bathurst. It's getting too close to call.
22/11/00 J.W.
One of the most exciting races in the country is taking place right here. I can't even choose an icon for who has the edge because it is incredibly close. It looked initially like a four way race. I do believe, however, that the small "c" conservative vote will swing to the Alliance. So now it's three way and I defy anyone to bet on the outcome. This is the riding to watch on election night.
25/11/00 JRFD Email:
Godin is toast. He was a great MP but the fact that Alexa hasn't visited here since November 10th only means one thing. The NDP has a better shot at picking up a seat in Newfoundland where Alexa will be on the last Saturday of the campaign..
25/11/00 Straw Pollster Email:
When I visited Bathurst this week I had the chance to ask a number of people who they thought was going to win this riding and the overwhelming opinion is that it is too close to call. One point that several made was the lack of people who came out to hear Liberal Sheila Copps speak (only 60 attended according to the radio). That would not seem to be a good sign for the Liberals. Most people are indicating they will have to hold their nose to vote and even die hard Liberals want Chretien gone following the Shawinigan Hotel fiasco.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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