Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Hon Andy Scott
Canadian Alliance:
Allan Neill
Progressive Conservative Party:
Raj Venugopal
New Democratic Party:
Michael Dunn
Natural Law Party:
William Parker

Hon. Andy Scott

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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11/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
Andy Scott will likely hold this seat for Chretien's team. The gabby Cab-Min (ex- that is) has local appeal. However he won in a squeaker. If the Tories make gains, this will be one of the first seats to fall their way
18/10/00 Mike O'Brien Email:
I think this is the Alliance's best shot to break into Atlantic Canada. They did well in another riding in the province, but it went tory. It is unlikely that NB will defeat any of their true tories in the election. Not with Elsie Wayne sticking around and the provincial PC landslide...On the other hand, Andy scott hasn't been able to gain many favours from the govt. After they got burned in the SF protest scandal, Scott fell a good few notches in the Liberal pecking order. that's important in New Brunswick. Lord may try to sweeten the pot a little and help a tory candidate, but Alliance may benefit from this overall. Alliance gain. Probably The only one east of Ontario.
18/10/00 L.O. Email:
This will not be easy for Andy Scott. He embarassed the government and his constituents during the Peppergate scandal. This will be remembered by the constituents. What will be interesting is to see where the vote goes. Besides Tobique Mactaquac, this is the Alliance's only other possible shot in Atlantic Canada. They almost tied for second place here. If they run a strong candidate they may have a chance. It will also be interesting to see if Lord or his people will run somebody here who could take a stab at it. Finally, even the NDP may have a shot...Too close to call.
18/10/00 J Smith Email:
The Lord factor will come into play here. The PC's will run a strong candidate to get rid of the loud mouthed Scott. Tory gain.
26/10/00 J.P. Kirby EMAIL:
This riding is going to be a very close 3-way race. Andy Scott, despite his problems, still has a strong support base, and the Tory vote is always strong. The NDP has no chance whatsoever. The key factor will be the Alliance vote. The "Maritimers are looking for handouts" fiasco seems to have passed, and I think that there will be just enough votes to put Fredericton in the Alliance column.
29/10/00 A.S.
I sorta agree that the presence of a Liberal incumbent--and a soiled ex-cabinet minister, at that--might give this a clearer slate for an Alliance pickup than if the incumbent was PC. (Indeed, given Fredericton's Tory history, it's a miracle Andy Scott even hung on in '97.) Though Bernie Lord might feel queasy about the provincial capital becoming CA's foot into Atlantic if Moncton hadn't enough problems w/Leonard Jones in the 70s...
01/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
This riding will stay with the incumbent based upon the following. Divided right wing vote ( The Liberal dream and the Alliance nightmare) and traditional Liberal support of approximately 35-38%, strong Alliance candidate to siphon off Tory votes, very strong Liberal campaign team in all aspects, in particular poll organization, communications and fundraising.
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield
The Tories now trail the Alliance in New Brunswick, and both of them are 40(!!) points back of the Liberals. No one not wearing a red tie is safe here.
03/11/00 J
This race is too close to call. The Alliance have a credible candidate who will put up a good fight to Andy Scott who is well liked despite his disgrace at the big ears of Dick Proctor. The Tories have a newcomer who lost to the establishment choice.
03/11/00 J.P. Kirby
I'm changing my prediction on Fredericton. The Tory nomination meeting on Nov. 1st (won by Raj Venugopal) attracted double the attendance of Andy Scott's or Allan Neill's nomination meetings. As for the guy that said no non-Liberal is safe, remember this is Andy Scott's riding for crying out loud!
04/11/00 Absentee Voter Email:
Loose lips Scott has embarrassed this riding and is likely to go down hard... I would give the nod to the Alliance candidate given growing national popularity and weakend PC's more likely to siphon Liberal votes than Alliance. Alliance had 22% of the vote here last time out.
06/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
It is important to keep in mind that the Liberal or Alliance candidates did not have a contested nominations like the PC candidate, hence the crowds. Also their is some discussion in Fredericton that a PC schism has arisen because Premier Lord's preferred candidate, Brian Harquail lost. Possible PC squabbling will be a factor here.
06/11/00 SA Email:
Raj Venugopal will be celebrating a victory over Andy Scott on November 27th. The numbers at his nomination, paired with the Lord factor will get him a lot of votes. The margin of 34.12% - 30.17% will be the opposite this time around. A good seat for the Tories to rebuild with.
08/11/00 James T. Chlup
Scott is on very thin ice here, and given his poor performance both as an MP and as a cabinet minister, defeat is more than earned here. I do not know anything about the PC candidate, however. Also, if the Alliance hope to win a seat in this region, this seem to be the place to start, given their strong performances in 1993 and 1997.
X 10/11/00 Leon Phelps
The Tories are in disarray in Fredericton and will likely split the vote with the Alliance allowing Andy Scott to win this again. A deeply divided Tory nomination hijacked by a strong contingent of ethnic voters have pissed off the Tory party establishment. Throw in discontent of provincial civil servants with the PC provincial gov't and we've got lots of room for Scott to win again.
15/11/00 Andrew Steeves
As a former resident of Fredericton having lived their for 12 years, this riding will go Liberal for one reason. Frederictonians normally are followers and not leaders. They will be too nervous to vote Alliance and will go red. Frederictonians rely on the media so all the negative attacks on Day will make them vote Tory instead of Alliance. The former COR supporters were so humbled by the arrogance of the Liberals that most of them don't care to vote anymore anyways.
17/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
Liberals are having some trouble in the sign wars. Venughopal and Neill are well organized in this regard, but many of their signs appear to be orphans and not located on private lawns ( ie supporters ).Liberal signs , whenever they are found, are on lawns. Liberal support from my perspective appears to be holding, therefore unless either the Alliance steals considerable support from the PC's or vice versa look for an extremely close Liberal hold here.
19/11/00 Joe Email:
After attending a CBC debate in Fredericton i will have to say the Liberals will hold this seat once again . Andy Scott (Incumbent) seem the most informed but got in a little trouble over the GST and CFB Gagetown issues . Even after his scandale Mr. Scott is still very well liked by the community . Allen Neill (C.A. cand.) didn't seem to know very much , if anything about his parties platform . When asked about issues such as same sex couples and immigration Neill didn't have a clue about where his party stood on these issues . (Tory cand.) Raj Venugopal seemed just try and tell the people what they wanted to hear .(NDP cand.) Micheal Dunn mainly agreed with everything Mr. Scott (Incumbent) said . The big issues at the debate were Healthcare , Crime & Punishment and Student Issues . said .
20/11/00 J.P. Kirby Email:
I sort of disagree with Irish Observer about the signs. It is true that Venugopal and Neill seem to have way too many signs on public property, but it seems to me that Venugopal (at least) has as many signs (if not more) on actual lawns as Scott does. My lawn sign count in 1997 seemed to be dead on with the actual results, so I'm slightly modifying my prediction. This one will be almost as close as Bush-Gore in Florida, but I still think Venugopal will win in an upset.
20/11/00 Knows F. Email:
For those of you that use the fact that Raj Venugapol had a higher showing at his nomination as an argument against Andy Scott, it is because the nomination for the Conservatives, was contested, so most all of the PC supporters went to see who would win. Andy Scott's nomination was NOT contested. Thank you, please correct yourselves.
23/11/00 Email:
I live on the northside of fredericton , i have barely seen any Raj Venugopal signs not on public property . Raj has taken the sign war way to far , its ridiculous how many Raj has on public property . Not only does it make the city look bad , its just not very becoming ( in my opinion ) . J.P. Kirby ...if you say Raj has more signs than Andy on supporters lawns , you must not get out much . I believe Andy will win again , and it is a well deserved win , he's been very good to this community and I personally think he will continue to do so when he is voted back into parliament .
24/11/00 J.P. Kirby
I did not say Raj had more signs than Andy...I said he MIGHT have had more. The other day, though, I took an informal count of signs on a trip from the UNB campus to Nashwaaksis...14 for Scott, 13 for Venugopal. So, the sign war is close, and I'm not saying Scott will lose, just that I'm giving it to the Tories. I hope you understand. :)
24/11/00 Insider Email:
Andy Scott privately admits he's very scared. His internal polling shows the Alliance with a firm 33% of eligible voters (I know - I can't prove that to you my fellow electorate - but you'll just have to believe me.) Although the Conservative canidate seems like a bright and likeable man the party machinery has never fully gotten behind him - upset about hijacking the nomination process no doubt. If enough of these disgruntled Conservatives move over to the Alliance it may be an interesting night.
24/11/00 JEO Email:
This seat is not a sure bet for the Liberals, the PC and Alliance candidates are both very strong and this is shaping up to be a very tight 3-way race. Many voters are disgruntled and embarrased by Andy Scott being kicked out of Caucus and have shifted mainly to the Alliance and some to the Tories, however the Tories have shored up their support from the last election... this is definately too close to call!
25/11/00 Email:
In visiting Fredericton this week I had the opportunity to ask 9 people who they thought was going to win and the result was very surprsing. All but one thought Andy Scott is running third with the young P.V. candidate considered slightly ahead of the Alliance candidate. It appears Andy's lapse of memory on his airplane seat mate hasn't been forgotten. Andy seems like a nice guy but no one seems to want to give a vote to Chretien - It would be a different story if Paul Martin was the Liberal leader from what I heard.
26/11/00 H.K. Email:
JEO , he wasn't kicked out of cabinet . He formally resigned .
26/11/00 Mike York Email:
Raj is going to take it from Andy for sure. He has the UNB and STU campus vote, and a lot of people sick of the Grits and others out there for him.
26/11/00 JaneyCanuck Email:
This race is too close to call but I am inclined to lean toward the Alliance. The Tory establishment is still upset about the young upstart taking the nomination and some of the provincial Tories in this riding will vote Alliance. This was THE key area for the COR party in 1991 when it formed New Brunswick's Official Opposition and former Leader Danny Cameron was at a Day rally which incidentailly was attended by well more than the 70 or so Tory MLA's and Bernard Lord in Mactaquac last week. Columnist Brent Taylor has predicted this riding will be Alliance. I tend to thinking it is looking that way but the late surge in support for the Tories nationally simply makes this race too close to call. Scott is a factor but the word is he is not confident.
26/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
Close, but the cigar will go to the incumbent. A classmate of mine advises me that the Liberal poll organization is well organized and that they have the troops to get out their vote. Contrast this with divided opposition and, I suspect, from soft NDP support voting strategically, you will see a close Liberal victory. Bush-Gore close, not quite, but then again it ws 6 million voters in Florida. I have enjoyed reading all of the perspectives posted here, and I look forward to the final decision.
26/11/00 H.K. Email:
If Andy does lose in this election , i personally think it will be a great loss for Fredericton . He has been a very devoted politician and truely cares about Fredericton . Hes a very accessible member , considering all the forums he has had and the fact that he has been at the farmers market almost every weekend since he was first elected . I read an article in the Daily Gleaner by Julian Walker that said Andy has worked hard to be one of the best mp's in New Brunswick and I truely think he is .

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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