Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Jeannot Castonguay
Canadian Alliance:
Scott Chedore
Progressive Conservative Party:
Jean Dubé
New Democratic Party:
Claude Albert

Jean Dubé

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
Submit Informationhere

18/10/00 J Smith Email:
Look for the Tories to keep this one. Jean Dube has been fairly active in this riding since his election, and as the PC HRDC critic, Dube has benefited from a lot of media attention, and for being a thorn in the ministers side. Tory victoy!!
22/10/00 Brad N. Email:
PCs should be able to retake this seat. They may be declining in popularity in Ontario and the west, but things should hold for them in the East. (with the possible exception of Newfoundland due to the Brian Tobin effect)
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
Jean Dube is an excellent member, who has worked hard for the riding. He should win comfortably.
24/10/00 Greg M. Email:
Last election, Jean Dube won over 50% of the vote over the Liberal minister and Dube has been a visible critic for the PC Party. This riding will stay PC.
24/10/00 J Email:/TD>
Jean Dube won this riding handily in 1997 due to the fact many were upset with UI changes. He had a high profile in Madawaska and won 8-1 in some polls there. The incumbent was from Restigouche. This time, he faces a tight race with a popular Edmunston surgeon Jean Castonguay. It will be definitely closer. More signifcantly, Scott Chedore, who was the VP of Dube's riding association, and a former Tory provoncial candidate, will be the Alliance candidate here. He can't win but he'll spoil Dube's chances in a close race. The NDP can also expect to win some votes here.
24/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Tories took this one with about 13% over the nearest Liberal. I give them the advantage right now, but you never know what might happen.. there's brewing in the east.
29/10/00 A.S.
It's seats and members like this that may allow Joe Clark to scrape out official party status even with a halved national vote. The Madawaska part is not only Dube's to keep, it's ground zero for the old Bernard Valcourt PC machine, sturdy even in the face of electoral defeat in '93 (he had the second highest PC vote after Jean Charest--but barely lost to a Grit anyway). And parliamentary HRDC-needling helps Dube, for sure. Besides, CA'd probably rather preoccupy itself with more CoR-friendly ridings to the south or Jean Gauvin to the east...
This riding will be too close to call. I live here and will be voting for Jean Dube but hear many people (some in Madawaska who claim publicly to be Tories) It seems as though a provincial tiff in a provincial Restigouche riding have spurred Alliance organizers and while it is unlikely they could win, the candidate, a veteran Tory who is an Anglophone, may help the Liberals win. Mind you, some Liberals are upset since the former MP (Guy Arseneault) was not "allowed" to run. All that and the support of the provincial Madawaska Tories lead me to say Dube by a nose.
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield
The Tories now trail the Alliance in New Brunswick, and both of them are 40(!!) points back of the Liberals. No one not wearing a red tie is safe here.
08/11/00 ROGER R.
NO SO FAST FOLKS. Don't count this one PC yet. Casonguay is a very good candidate and well respected person. The Madawaska region has always been the key to winning this one. That's Castonguay's home turf! On top of that the St-Quentin - Kedgwick region will vote Castonguay ( From the information I have - close to 75 %) Dubé must post strong gains in Campbellton and Dalhousie. Here again these to communities have a relatively strong anglophone population. With the Alliance candidate ( a former PC on Dubé's executive ) being also from that region you will see the old Split advantage. This one will go to Castonguay from what I hear.
19/11/00 JaneyCanuck Email:
All signs point to a Tory victory here. The Alliance candidate will get some English and protest votes (Recall that the natural Law party received over 900 votes here in 97) but it does not look like it will be enough to allow the Liberal Castonguay to win. Castonguay is better known in Madawaska where there is a strong Tory machine and his visits to Restigouche have been uneventful and not supportive. Dube won both debates easily though the Liberals and the Alliance teamed up to ensure there would be no English debate primarily since Castonguay's English is not that good. Dube is effortless and fluently bilingual. The Alliance candidate did not show up at the French debates. Language, while not an issue in this election, is always simmering below the surface, and the COR party placed second in Campbellton, the largest city in Restigouche, in 1991. In Restigouche, Dube has a significant part of the organization that elected the Health Minister in New Brunswick and t! he on the ground strength of the Tory team will be displayed on election day.
24/11/00 IC Email:
The arrogance of Chrétien will allow the PC`s to keep this seat! I sure hope we do not have snow on the 27th, or the people will stay home? It was not a time to call an election!
26/11/00 Janey Canuck Email:
I have to just point out that while Carleton County is indeed the bible belt and will in fact likely support the Alliance, it was the bedrock of support for the COR party in 1991. That was the Fredericton area, part of which is in this riding. I think the Alliance has an excellent chance of taking this riding but it will be close no matter who eeks out the victory.
26/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
Heard good comments about strength of Liberal candidate. Good shot at an upset. Business colleague of mine in Campbellton said that PC candidate had been musing about the mayor's job for that City. Those sorts of musings make one pause to think their amy be an upset in the making.

Submit Information here
Back to New Brunswick Index
Back to Home

Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan