Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Andy Savoy
Canadian Alliance:
Adam Richardson
Progressive Conservative Party:
Gilles Bernier
New Democratic Party:
Carolyn van Dine

Gilles Bernier

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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11/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
I hear Gilles Bernier is a good bet to be returned to Ottawa for a second term. He's been an active constituency politician in this rural riding.
14/10/00 A.S.
This'll probably be the Alliance's biggest target riding in the Maritimes; playing off the remnants of Confederation of Regions fervour, Reform scored 28% here in '97, only 8 points below Bernier. In fact, Bernier won by squeezing up the middle between CoR-country Reformers to the south and the Liberal-incumbent-supporting Francophones to the north. But between the Elsie Wayne factor and the Bernard Lord factor, NB Tories may be in more robust Alliance-proof shape than the dismal national polls may indicate...
18/10/00 L.O. Email:
The PC's will win this one with Bernier. Bernier is very popular for his advocacy of students and PSE issues in the House of Commons. He is very well-liked in the riding and had some provincial Liberals working on his campaign. Predictably enough the Alliance will place second here - though it will be distant. They came close here in 1997. The gap won't close.
18/10/00 Mike O'Brien Email:
The Alliance and the PC's will likely duke it out here. Safer money is on the Tories - but watch for the Liberals to be spoilers and possibly give the Alliance a seat here. not as likely as Fredericton, but in some ways more likely due to the greater number of small-"c"s in the riding going back 20 years. Too close.
24/10/00 JaneyCanuck Email:
It's my opinion that the Tobiqu Mactaquac riding will be one if not the only riding that could be won by the Alliance. The riding is currently held by Tory Gilles Bernier and while he is a strong candidate, the Liberals will not be the main competition. Their nomination convention only drew 500 people. Further, the Alliance has a lively contest between lawyer Maureen Bell, a former Liberal and Adam Richardson, who was the Alliance's former Co-ordinator. Several prominant Liberals, including the McCain Family, are backing the Alliance. Watch this riding on election night!
26/10/00 J.P. Kirby EMAIL:
Like Fredericton, another close one. I doubt that some Liberals will ever go back to that party after the 1997 nomination meeting fiasco, but enough could to make them a force. In 1997, this was generally considered to be Reform's best chance in Atlantic Canada, but Tory support is still strong enough here to make them the favoured candidate on November 27th.
01/11/00 Adam Daifallah
Lacklustre Tory MP Gilles Bernier has been an embarrassment to the citizens of Tobique-Mactaquac since he stepped foot in Ottawa. I think the person who was most surprised he became an MP was Bernier himself, hence his licence plates -- they say "MP" on them. Bernier recently claimed in an interview that the Canadian Alliance would create 3rd world conditions in the Atlantic provinces and that a CA government could spark a civil war. Comments like this show what an embarrassment this man really is. Look for the Alliance, which finished with over 25% of the vote here in '97, to capitalize on their defense of fisherman in the region and send Bernier to the EI roles.
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield
The Tories now trail the Alliance in New Brunswick, and both of them are 40(!!) points back of the Liberals. No one not wearing a red tie is safe here.
03/11/00 j Email:
It is still a long-shot, but this riding could be the CA's breakthrough riding in Atlantic Canada. Reform did well here last time (28%). Ipsos-Reid's provincial breakdown of their latest poll actually puts the CA ahead of the PC Party In NB. This riding is, at this stage, a three-way (CA/PC/Lib) toss-up. Definately one to watch!
04/11/00 Absentee voter
This will be a close three way race. High profile C.A. candidate, Alliance pro fishing stance and weak Liberal could tilt this to the Alliance.
Editor's Note: 50% in poll is weak?
05/11/00 Andrew Steeves
As a former resident of NB, I can't imagine this riding not going Alliance this time. Having lived in the province when this riding went COR provincially, the seeds are ripe at this time for the riding to go Alliance federally. New Brunswick voters are probably the smartest in the country, the English ridings look at the country the same way as the west does. Good luck my friends and don't let the Tories fool you!!!
06/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
I travelled through this riding November 3,4 and 5 and after seeing the visible signs of the campaign and participating in and listening to conversations with residents of the riding, I think the incumbent could be in trouble. If the Alliance picks up 3 % from the PC's and the Liberals 1-2 % of the vote, look at the math. This seat will either go Liberal or Alliance. I would lean towards the Liberals because the 30% result in 1995 should be their worst case scenario as that ws when gun control (big issue here) was at its peak. Also, defeated candidate for the Alliance nomination had some soft Liberal supporters (her husband Richard Bell was a defeated candidate for the Liberal nomination in 1995 and he commanded some loyalty from these supporters) who will most likely drift back to Liberal candidate Savoy. Look for Liberal squeaker of less than 300 votes.
06/11/00 Email:
Glad to see the Alliance cheerleaders out in full force...but when they cite the fishery as a major issue, do they realise that this riding is considerably inland -- resting next to the American frontier. The reason Reform did so well in 97 was they used their traditional politics of division playing the language card (going after the old CoR base with an anglophone candidate when the two main parties ran francophones) This was also the campaign when Reform ran TV ads that put Xs through the face of Quebeckers...but they claim to have "reformed"...we'll wait and see
08/11/00 James T. Chlup
I think this is a PC hold, but it could be a tight squezze.
11/11/00 alan forsyth Email:
This riding is going to go alliance. In the last election the conservative won it by less than 9% over the Reform candidate, since then the alliance has increased from 19% nationally to 28% and the conservatives have declined from 18% to 8% unless that vote does not go to the alliance candidate the seat should easily swing to the alliance.
11/11/00 Janey Canuck Email:
I have to change my prediction here (do I sound like the US news anchors?) abd take this one from the Alliance column and put it in the undecided. It is now being reported that supporters of Maureen Bell, who lost the nomination to Boy wonder Adam Richardson, are returning to the Liberal party. Maureen and her husband Richard did after support Preston in the Leadership race while Adam worked for Stock. An observer at the Alliance nomination meeting said "She looked like a sore loser". Gilles Bernier can still do well, especially in the French polls near Madawaska-Restigouche which could be the best riding for the Tories and the race is between him and Richardson. Stay tuned!
18/11/00 Email:
My business requires me to travel throughout Atlantic Canada and I make regular visits to this riding. In listening to people talk, I think there is a strong "law and order" leaning that will give the riding to Alliance. Gun Control is a major issue in this rural riding in New Brunswick's Bible Belt. The reason I am writing is I saw where you are saying the riding will probably go Liberal and I haven't heard anyone leaning that way when I have been there. It is a race between the Tories and Alliance. Whe 1000 people come out to hear someone speak in a riding like this and only 100 show up when the Atlantic Canadian Liberal star Brian Tobin speaks, that says reems of what the feelings of the electors are.
17/11/00 B. Cormier
With strong Conservative and Alliance candidates, I think the Liberals are going to benefit from vote-splitting and win... not by much... but they'll win.
24/11/00 Email:
Vote-splitting between the Tories and Alliance in this riding will allow the Liberal to squeeze up the middle.
24/11/00 JEO Email:
This seat went approximately 31-30-29 PC-Liberal-Reform in 1997 and will likely be this tight again. In the southern end of the riding (Carelton county) it is impossible for a Liberal to get elected, it is heavily right wing and religious. It was the stronghold of the (right-wing Alliance-style) COR party in the late 80s and early 90s. The vote went approx. 60-40 Lib-PC in the North and 40-60 PC-Ref in the south, allowing the Tories to sneak up the middle. This will likely be the case again, however the Liberal candidate in the last run was surronded by controversy having rigged the convention to get nominated because in the redistrubution she lost her riding to a more prominent Liberal and had to run here, where she didn't live and less than 10% of her old riding survived, she would have lost the convention handily but bought memberships for a bunch of High School students and stole it. This time the Liberal is much stronger and might be able to steal support from the Tories and/or Alliance. This will be too tight to call, 3way.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
if Tories hold here - then official party status is possible- if CA vote strong will this not kill Tories chance of holding seat? best chance for CA according to GLOBE and Mail
26/11/00 Irish Observer Email:
Having my roots in Johnville, the poor bog Irish part of this riding I note the mention of religion with some interest as it relates to this riding. Protestant - conservative vote and Catholic - Liberal vote, of course with some notable exceptions. If this vote is close look for the Liberals to be first past the post. Experienced campaigners in Larry Kennedy, Andy Harvey and Paul Duffie, all from different parts of the riding, divided right wing vote and organized united Liberal campaign. This spells upset. This rural riding of farmers and small business people and hunters etc shouldn't even be showing on the radar for the Liberals. But it is and that means trouble for the right wing parties. It will be a Liberal MP for the people of the Monquart River.
26/11/00 Marcel
I don't know how you guys can predict a win for the Liberals in Acadie-Bathurst! All the local newspapers have constantly predicted a very close race that could end up in a recount. Bernard Thériault has strong roots in Caraquet, but I wouldn't rule out NDP candidat Yvon Godin. As for Jean Gauvin (CA), I doubt he will have much support; people still remember his years under the Hatfield goverment in NB, where he was known as "vroom vroom", a name given to him because he was driving a sportscar as his goverment car, and because he was the biggest spender! PC candidate Alcide Léger can expect some support altough he won't be in the race.
26/11/00 Wes McLean
I predict that this riding will return Gilles Bernier, the tory imcumbent, to the House of Commons. The main rival is actually the Canadian Alliance candidate while the Liberals in third place. During the past three years, Bernier has been a strong voice for the constituents and is well regarded. Simply put, the Alliance will do well in the south and the Liberals will fare well in the north. However, only Bernier will be able to acquire support across the entire riding. This riding has been the focus of the Reform/Alliance after the 97 election in which their candidate made a respectable showing.
26/11/00 JRFD Email:
One of my friends, a strong New Democrat, is from this riding (Woodstock). She described this riding as the Bible belt of New Brunswick. Her friends back home are also telling her about how popular the Alliance seems to be. A 27.7% result last time coupled with a small but significant increase in CA support in Atlantic Canada spells a likely CA win here. This bothers me.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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