Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Hon Brian Tobin
Canadian Alliance:
Randy Wayne Dawe
Progressive Conservative Party:
Jim Morgan
New Democratic Party:
Fraser March

Hon. Fred Mifflin

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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14/10/00 D. Kirby Email:
It's apparent that Brian Tobin will be seeking this seat. He will surely take it!
15/10/00 EP Email:
Not only will Brian Tobin run here, National Post is even spreading the rumours that the PM will do a mini cabinet suffle a week before the writ to make sure Tobin is a Cabinet Member during the election. However, there is no empty senate seat for Fred, so it would be interesting to see where will he be after the election.
16/10/00 L.O. Email:
Fred Mifflin will likely take Senator Squires' place when Squires retires on February 6 2001. As for this riding. It will be a battle for even Brian Tobin. This is because "Jigger" Jim Morgan is likely running for the tories in the riding. Morgan has been very visible in the riding and in the news with his stands on fishing issues. He is particularly popular for his stands on what he calls the descrimination against Newfoundlanders for a food fishery of just two weekends compared with all summer for Maritime provinces just across the gulf. He's president of the NFLD rural rights and boat owners association. He was also a very popular minister of fisheries in the Peckford Government in the mid 1980s. High profile. The district he represented in the 1980s, Bonavista South, has the highest population of voters of any in the Federal riding of Bonavista Trinity Conception. Finally, Morgan is well-like because he spoke out against bill c-68 - and even called on Tobin to do the same. This will be a close race. Especially considering the fact that Fraser March, the man who lost to Mifflin by only a few hundred votes is running again for the NDP...
16/10/00 Mike O'Brien Email:
I don't think this will be a cake walk for Tobin. Roger Fitzgerald, MHA for Bon. South won his seat one of the highest margins. He's extremely popular and he's likely to be campaigning for Jim Morgan. There were massive demonstrations in 1997 when Fred Mifflin tried to campaign in Bull Arm/Sunnyside (part of the VERY safely Liberal Bellvue section of the riding). People came from all over that riding. Tobin Scolded the demonstrators for protesting despite the fact that the federal Liberals had renegged on a promise concerning TAGS. Tobin's provincial Liberal party lost a lot of votes there in the following provincial election. The 1997 result also showed that this district isn't likely to vote for the Liberal Party of Canada - even with Tobin there:
xFred Mifflin Lib 12,929
Fraser March NDP 12,359
Randy Dawe PC 10,329
Christopher Randell Ind 1,081 The kicker is that Randy Dawe was a virtual unknown in the riding and got most of his votes from the Conception Bay end of the Riding;this indicates anti-fed lib sentiment where there was little before. Add to that the fact Chris Randall isn't likely to run (he took some of the Bonavista vote) and it is quite likely that Morgan, with his noteriety is at least in the race. As is Fraser March - although March will need a big war chest.
18/10/00 AL Email:
With St. Brian back in the federal cabinet and hapless Fred Mifflin off to his reward this should be an easy Liberal hold.
20/10/00 J Smith Email:
Even with Tobin running here, I don't see a Liberal victory. There is a lot of anger towards Tobin in NFLD. The Tories are likely to nominate a strong candidate to give Tobin a run for his money. Anti-Liberal sentiment combined with a strong PC, will make this a PC gain, but by a narrow margin.
22/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Is this not the riding Brian Tobin will be running in...? No one is going to beat Tobin if he runs...
26/10/00 Initial EMAIL:
"Our premier went to the House of Commons and all we got was this lousy turbot." Yeah, I know, opportunism, arrogance, orrogance, apportunism. Still, I can't see it being Waterloo time for Tobin yet; he's not very likely to face defeat or a Mifflinesque scare. Perhaps if you consider a less than absolute majority a figurative defeat; yes, that's possible. But not *defeat* defeat.
29/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
Jim Morgan is an affable and well-respected local person. As a former provincial fisheries minister, he's exceptionally well received. Meanwhile the Grits are running the Minister-of-no-fixed-address. His old federal riding is on the opposite side of the Island, and during his two elections as Premier, he represented two different constituencies. Jim Morgan is going to squeak out a win here. This would be the signal for a long night for the Liberals.
29/10/00 web surfer Email:
I was just checking the Elections Canada website....and Jim Morgan's the first candidate to file nomination papers....clearly his camp is far more organised that Brian Tobin's. If they are *this* efficient...then something's up and surprise might be in the air here, actually.
01/11/00 P.M.
i recently went on a trip to the mainland and had a discussion with some of the people living in the area about politics. the funney thing was that everyone feels that we (NF's) love mr. tobin... what a joke, couldn't be further from the truth... this man is out for himself and nobody else. he is currently taking all the credit for our growing economy, but the fact of the matter is he showed up at the right place at the right time. he didn't have the business skills to negotiate the INCO deal or Churchill Falls and leaves us high and dry. well i say GET lost because you won't have a seat in the next election if the people of the riding are smart enough to see through you MR. TOBIN!!!
01/11/00 Jamie Baker
This riding is going Tory, despite the Tobinator. The same candidate is running for the NDP...that will be enuf to syphon off Liberal votes to see the Tories win the riding... Jim Morgan is heading to Ottawa!
02/11/00 randy gorman
you torries are dreaming, tobin will deliver the goods to the riding and newfoundland,despite the candidacy of jigger jim morgan in the race to make it interesting this race as not as close as thses tory postings are predicting.
10/11/00 Cory B.
Brian Tobin and Newfoundland, he is as big as it gets in that provence. Not only will he win, he'll win big. Also, with his presence I suspect every seat in Newfoundland will go Liberal.
20/11/00 MH Email:
Far be it for an outsider to try to call this one, but a good friend has a lot of family and friends in the constituency, and she tells me Tobin is in trouble. What he needs is the CA candidate to syphon votes away from the Tory, otherwise the latter will win. Does she know what she's talking about? Hard for me to judge; evidently Newfoundlanders don't agree with each other. By the time the polls close here in Ontario it will have been decided.
23/11/00 jf Email:
Also from away but concur with opinion expressed in prior post. The fact that Tobin cancelled a plan visit to the Tar Sands to shore up support in that region lends credence to the possibility of troubles in his own riding.
24/11/00 SM Email:
I used to live in this riding, and it's too bad that it will always go Tory, I personally favour the Liberals, but I do look at all of the 301 electoral ridings objectively and their is little if no chance that we win this one this time around. Too bad though.
25/11/00 Straw Pollster Email:
Surprizing to hear, Brian Tobin is in trouble in his own riding. This is according to three people who live there. The biggest surprise was that while he is well liked nationally, he isn't in his own riding. What is going on here? What are the locals saying on this?
26/11/00 A.S.
If Tobin's in trouble, I'm not sure if the opposition's coalesced properly. Despite Jim Morgan's merits, he's also up against 1) the second go for the NDP's Fraser March, and 2)the '97 PC candidate running for the Alliance. Yes, indeed, the split-in-the-right's landed upon Newfie shores...
26/11/00 Email:
Trevor Taylor is popular and moderate. Tories and disaffected Liberals are flocking to his campaign. It'll be close, but people are tired of Liberal arrogance. Taylor will make a much better M.P. than Byrne has been.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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