|The NDP ran a very successful, if not victorious campaign here in the by-election this past spring. If the same NDP candidate runs again, watch for an upset against the Tories.|
|The Riding of St. john's West has voted Progressive Conservative in every election in the last 32 years except 1993. The only seat that is safer for the PC Party in Newfoundland is St. John's East. If that alone isn't enough, the fact that Loyola Hearn was one of the most popular ministers in the Peckford Government with strong roots in the cape shore region of the riding should be considered. He also has the NFLD PC machine behind him because he was Ed Byrne's cheif of Staff before he ran in the St. John's West by-election. The by-election magic had a lot to do with the success of the NDP in the by-election. It also had everything to do with with two words - GREG MALONE. He was famous after Codco - people.|
As former NFLD NDP leader Peter Fenwick said: "In order for an NDP candidate to win in Newfoundland, you need a bunch of things to come together. 1. a notable candidate, 2. a full war chest, 3. a bad PC AND Liberal Candidate, 4. a massive number of volunteers."
It doesn't look like the NDP will meet those criteria. The only 2 people who ever have managed that in Newfoundland were Fonse Faour in 1979 and Jack Harris in 1990.
|Greg Malone or no Greg Malone, the NDP will not win here in the next election.The previous author does not seem to know that the NDP have historically done well in the riding ONLY in by-elections. The have never won the riding in a general election.|
Does anyone think that the Liberals will only get 25% here in the general election like they did in the by-election? No, of course not.The Liberal vote will go up and will cut into those votes that Greg Malone got.This is the NDPs problem in the next election - centre-leftish types are going to vote Liberal to stop the Alliance (even though the Alliance will be an extremely marginal factor in the riding having only polled 4.5 percent in the by-election).
Malone's stature was also diminished somewhat by his by-election loss.
The question is: can Loyola Hearn hold off the challenge from the Liberals?I think so.St. John's is a pretty Tory town and the rural areas around (which comprise most of the riding) are likely to stick with Hearn who as both an MP for the last few months, and a former provincial cabinet minister, is greatly respected.
|Loyola Hearn has been in the Telegram quite a bit. Always positive news. TheNDP have nevertaken thisseat and only did as well as they did in it during the byelection because of the Codcostar GregMalone. MHAs like Harvey Hodder and Fabian Manning haul alot of weight in the riding. They're supporting Hearn. Also, the Liberal candiateSparrow who was strong in Placentiaisn't running.that regionhas a long tory tradition. They will strengthen Hearn's support. I wouldn't be surprised if Liberals onthe cape shore and Mount Pearl area evenstart supporting Hearn.The only chanceanyone else has is if Furey or one of the other Liberal cabinet ministers run for the Liberals. Tory keep.|
|Charles "Chuck" Furey will be taking on the Tory Loyola Hearn in this riding. Surely his team has done some polling in the riding an assume that it's possible to win. Hearn will have a fight on his hands to keep this one.|
|The byelection was too close. The Tories are going to have a harder time defending this in a general election. This could go Tory, Liberal, or with the right candidate NDP.|
|If Greg Malone runs again, the riding will be his. This riding is historically Tory. The fact that the Tories are facing national collapse, coupled with a stronger Liberal vote, especially now that Tobin is back, will shave away enough Tory votes to let the Codco boy take the seat.|
|It is unreasonable, in my view, to display that the PC party will win this seat. In the least, it should be "too close" to call. Chuck Furey held several influential Cabinet portfolios in the Tobin gov't, including Minister of Mines and Energy and, most recently, Minister of Tourism, Culture, and Recreation.|
As well, if there was ever to be a Liberal sweep in NF this is the time. Brian Tobin will have very long coattails in this election. In a recent poll conducted for the St. John's daily The Telegram by TelelinkóThe Call Centre Inc. of St. Johnís, 75.9% indicated support for the Liberals, with the Tories a distant second at 17.8 per cent. In the St. Johnís region, which encompasses all of the traditional Tory stronghold of St. Johnís East and part of St. Johnís West, 30 per cent said they would vote Liberal compared to 10.1 per cent for the Tories.
And by the way, this is not an expression of partisan support, but one of obvious political reality.
|Greg Malone will be sitting this one out. Still, with the NDP a strong contender in this riding thanks to the recent by-election it's possible the NDP could pick it up if a) Tory fortunes decline and b) the NDP remains stable or has a more successful election campaign than people now expect.|
|Unless Alexamania far outstripped '97, I doubt the NDP'll be so much in the picture now; the by-election was a happy fluke. Besides, a bit of the NDP thunder might be stolen by the return to the federal scene of the Tobinator, which is what St John's Tories should *really* fear.|
|This is a very interesting battle, with three high profile contenders. PC Hearn carries core traditional Tory support, but with very limited potential for gain. The Liberals are running long time provincial cabinet minister, Charles Furey - who has buckets of money and rides Tobin's coattails. However, Furey is not well respected and is a parachute candidate. The NDP is running Dave Curtis, a highly motivated and articulate former labour leader. Interestingly, Curtis and Hearn are cousins from the same community of Renews. If the NDP can improve its polling numbers, this riding will go NDP.|
|I'll tentatively, if gingerly, give this to Loyola once again--and if Joe Clark can resurrect Brian Mulroney, Loyola can resurrect John Crosbie, so who knows. I agree that the NDP result was a fluke--if anything, Greg Malone's afterglow could hurt the Liberals together w/Tobin resentment. But it's only PC; it's not CA. Nothing to fear through (re-)election, I guess...|
|The N.D.P. were popular and the Liberals were down in 1997. The spread between the P.C. and Liberal vote was only 7% in 1997...7%. Now, the N.D.P. are down (benefitting the Liberals entirely); the conservative vote has melted nationally (benefitting the Liberals entirely) (and in this type of riding whether that vote went to the Alliance or Liberals doesn't matter, BOTH situations benefit the Liberal party); and the Alliance is up. Out of that, can we extract a change of 4% upwards for the Liberals and likewise down for the conservatives (narrowing the gap by 8%)? |
|Too close. The Alliance is now in double figures in Newfoundland, and the NDP have fallen to 4th. The Tories trail badly province-wide, but may be able to hold on here.|
|Loyola Hearn has represented the people of St.John's West well since his election to office.Both Loyola and the people in his office have worked to help people and organizations throughout the riding.He even stood and supported the small boat inshore fisherman in their fight with DFO this spring on quotas and resource sharing.Another major thing that Loyola has going for him is the fact that he is that he is very easy to get in touch with on any topic or at any time. I wonder will Chuck be so quick to help the little guy. For these reasons and more will be putting my support behind Mr. Loyola Hearn to represent St. John's West. |
|This riding has the label as being a Tory riding...I have to disagree...if you look at the history of the riding, it has been Tory other than Richard Cashin and Jean Payne...however, it was a John Crosbie riding, not a tory riding... Greg Malone proved in the by-election that this is a riding that will vote for the person, not the traditional party lines...therefore, I think Furey, given the right campaign can win this seat for the Liberals. He's very experienced, and will represent the people very well.|
|Loyola is a high calibre candidate who during his time in the House of Commons represented the people of St. John's West and Newfoundland extremely well. I'm positive that this representation will only improve when Mr. Hearn is re-elected to the House.|
|Chuckles has been spending much of his Lotto 6/49 fortune trying to take this seat from the Tories, but it looks as though Brian Tobin led his good buddy off a cliff. Hearn is overwhelmingly well-liked, even by those who hate his party. In the unscientific but psychologically important lawn-sign race, Loyola seems to have a huge advantage; the only place I've seen a lot of Furey signs is Waterford Bridge Road in St. John's - where Brian Tobin lives. |