Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Halifax West

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Geoff Regan
Canadian Alliance:
Hilda Stevens
Progressive Conservative Party:
charles Cirtwill
New Democratic Party:
Gordon Earle
Marxist Leninist Party:
Tony Seed

Gordon Earle

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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10/10/00 V.K. Email:
This is the weakest NDP seat in the province, and will probably fall to the Liberals in the next election. Gordon Earle, dispite being a nice guy, has been almost invisible otherwise.
10/10/00 JRFD Email:
This is another swing seat between the Liberals and the NDP. Unfortunately Gordon Earle has made a strategic mistake by paying too much attention to the very Liberal Bedford and Hammonds planes areas of the riding and not enough on the very NDP Spryfield and Timberlea areas of the riding. And although Gordon is a good and well-behaved parliamentarian that doesn't get you notoriety.
The Liberals have done extensive polling in this riding to find out whether they prefered former MP Geoff Regan or Bernie Boudreau and Geoff won out. I think Geoff might just be able to edge his old seat back from Gordon-but I wouldn't rule out the NDP yet.
10/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
Gordon Earle's in trouble here. He squeaked by the Liberal to win the seat last time and the Grits are itching to regain a foothold in Nova Scotia after being wiped out.
11/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
I'd say that this could be a tough seat to call. Gordon Earle has been invisible in the media. I have no idea he's active within the mixed urban/rural constitutency. That might be enough to put him in serious contention in the re-match with Geoff Regan.
11/10/00 L.O. Email:
Too Close! The Liberals are offering a popular former MP which makes it a race. But I can't see the federal Liberals getting much credit in Nova Scotia outside of Cape Breton.
12/10/00 Don MakAskill Email:
Earle will have a strong group of provincial people working for him. There are no really hot issues burning in that riding yet. The Liberal candidate is strong, but that will affect the tories more so than the NDP.
14/10/00 A.S. Email:
To be honest, I don't think *any* of the suburban-Halifax ridings are a safe bet for *anybody*; and the tortured '97 results that led to the unlikely NDP sweep see to that. While the NDP gloss has perhaps worn off, the Grits (Geoff Regan and all) aren't without their own lingering handicaps, still, and the PC/Alliance situation, who knows (though as John Hamm proved provincially, the right can surprise). And in any case, for hit-sequel electoral nourishment, the otherwise latent NDP one-trick ponies still have Big Suckling Mama Alexa in the middle of it all...
13/10/00 Chris Delanoy Email:
Gordon Earle won solely on the Alexa coatails that were created in 1997 throughout Nova Scotia by the mild Liberal UI/EI reforms. Those are gone now, so Earle is left on his own to sink or swim. I predict a sink.
14/10/00 Richard Email:
Earle is a sitting duck. The Liberals are going to win back this seat. It is a Nova Scotian seat that has traditionally been in the Grit control, and will be returned there come election night.
15/10/00 Mike Email:
It's not a lock, but Earle hasn't had the profile needed. With time, the Regan name is less of a stigma. I'm sure the negative publicity of his father was the straw that broke Geoff Regan's back last time.
18/10/00 Mike O'Brien Email:
Gordon Earle has a large group of provincial NDP supporters that are going to be campaigning for him. The region is also mourning the loss of an NDP MLA who died there recently. Very sad. As strange as it may sound, respectfully, some of the electorate may express their support for her and associates this way. Earle isn't going anywhere.
18/10/00 J Smith Email:
Earle is finished. He isn't a very good MP, and lacks the profile needed of the NDP to keep this riding. Liberal gain!!
26/10/00 Initial EMAIL:
The one issue that would assure Geoff Regan's victory over the NDP is to have him state publicly that he is against the gun registration.Halifax West is no different then other rural areas of Canada. The law makes no sense to these people. Geoff stands to gain a large proportion of support if he agrees to fight to have the law repealed if he is elected.
01/11/00 Tony Email:
When you come right down to it the main issue is going to be who can represent this riding the best. Geoff was described in the Globe and Daily news as one of the best constituency MPs in Canada. He held 32 "Let's Talk" town hall meetings through out the riding as an MP. According to Paul Martin he worked hard to bring positive changes such as the Child Tax Credit and Tuition Tax Credit. Earle has been invisible in the riding and has shown no ability fight for us. The choice is clear.
01/11/00 JF Email:
Do not discount the NDP in this riding. Liberal attempts to reverse things in Nova Scotia by throwing a lot of money MAY not work. The NDP is going to hold their own in Nova Scotia.
01/11/00 Chris Chmelyk
Weak NDP or not, this riding is in Alexa's backyard, and the NDP has several hundred people canvassing the riding as we speak. With the Tories collapsing, expect their votes to go NDP not Liberal in the maritimes. Gordon Earle has proven himself to be an excellent constituency representative. This one will go NDP - with a larger margin than 1997 - I'd bet on it.
04/11/00 Sameul Clarkson Email:
I think the Alliance has picked a winner, not just in the Candidate but in the campaign team. Apparently the candidate has chose Brian Nash, a very successful campaign manager who just ran the campaign for the new Mayor of HRM and who was Stockwell Day's Atlantic Canada Campaign Manager, as well I guess he's managed a few sucessful provincial Tory campaigns. Local CBC Radio was calling this one for the Alliance because of him Friday morning.
10/11/00 Leon Phelps Email:
YOu could barely get in the doors at Geoff Regan's campaign opening. Paul Martin was there and fired up the troops. Gordon Earle was useless over the last 3.5 years. The people of Halifax West know this. They also know that with Senator Boudreau going down in Dartmouth, that Geoff Regan has a good shot at being the regional Minister for NS should he win. This will push him over the top.
14/11/00 M.M. Email:
I think Gordon Earle has fought very well for the important issues that Halifax West was concerned about, and he kept his constituents well informed. He most certainly still work hard for this community.
17/11/00 JRFD Email:
I have changed my mind, Gordon will keep this based on the strong NDP areas of Spryfeild and Timberlea. Although there was no poll done here, I think the large leads and significant increse in raw vote for the NDP in Dartmouth and Halifax bode well for Gordon Earle. It will be closer than Dartmouth though because Regan isn't hated like Boudreau is.
20/11/00 Terry Email:
I attended the all candidates debate last night and I lost all hope for Gordon. Although Geoff Regan was under constant attack he came off as a honest well informed person who would take our concerns to Ottawa and fight on our behalf. Gordon on the other hand came off as uninformed on economic issues and all of his ideas came down to spending 100 billion dollers.
23/11/00 Dave Gallant Email:
I did some deep soul searching, but I've decided I have to vote for the Canadian Alliance. It was a hard decision, I attended the Canadiates debates, I downloaded the party platforms and I tried to talk to all the Candidates, I have to say though she wasn't the most polished, I thought the Canadian Alliance Candidate Hilda Stevens was the most honest. Now I usually vote Conservative, but I have never Liberal in the past, I think that voting PC would be a waste because it would be just like voting for the Liberals, both Elsie Wayne, and my Local Candidate have said they would prop up a Liberal Minority, so I might as well vote Liberal as for them, and I definitely don't want the Liberals to stay in power, and I could never vote for the NDP, both my local candidate and their leader seem to only be fixed on on issue and never answer the questions asked. Gordon Earle even tried to turn a question on Bill C-68 into a health care question, and he refused to answer ques! tions about who he really thinks is rich, he seemed to imply that people making only $26,000 were rich and not worthy of tax cuts. So after examining all these facts I said I need to vote for the Alliance, to keep the Liberals out and to prevent the Arrogance and unconcern that the NDP seem to have for the locals here. So I'm not only voting for the Alliance myself, but almost everybody I know in my neighbourhood, and a lot of people at work are voting for them as well, not a lot of people seem to be loudly proclaiming it, but I've heard a number of people tell me that yeah they are going to Vote CA, well I'm proclaiming it, and I think that Hilda Stevens might surprise a lot of Liberals and NDP on Monday night, she certainly surprised me with her straightforward and honest approach, not something I've grown to expect in a politician.
23/11/00 Sully Email:
How many voters are going to be annoyed enough with Jean Chretien that they'll be willing to place a strategic vote for the NDP just accelerate his downfall? I'm willing to bet that there will be enough for Gordon Earle to squeak Halifax-West through for the NDP. He's the incumbent and his proximity to Alexa's riding will probably be enough to win the day.
24/11/00 Steven Lloyd
Even though I enjoyed Mr. Gallant's commercial break for the CA, he's a little out to lunch. They got 10% of the vote last time for crying out loud. Now normaly I try not to make predictions in ridings I'm not familier with or can't gauge the results from voter trends but I think (Warning: opinion only) that due to the spillover effect from Alexa's riding (Signs, workers ect.) this one will stay in the NDP camp.
24/11/00 T. Hefler
Clearly a choice between the Liberals and the Canadian Alliance, the NDP member of Parliament has done little for the area, the Tories aren't really a factor because, everybody I talk to doesn't expect them to even exist as a party after the election, so nobody is willing to commit to a party that might not even be around. Now that means the choice is between who the people want to govern them, after seeing what little the Liberals have done for the Riding I don't know if the people will want to support Geoff Regan. With the large Rural area (primarily fishing communities) I believe the Alliance will pick up a lot of support here based on Bill C-68 and their fishing policies. The other part of the Riding is split between the old Town of Bedford and Clayton Park West area which are both rather affluent so they might be interested in the CA's tax policies. The other areas (Spryfield and the small part of Sackville) are suburban areas and will probably be an interesting mix of support probably a close 3 way split between the Libs NDP and CA with maybe just a smidgen for the Tories, so overall looking at where the population bases are and who they should be most likely to vote for I would say it will be the Alliance, but just a hair.

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Last Updated 25 November 2000

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