Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Claude O’Hara
Canadian Alliance:
Gerry Fulton
Progressive Conservative Party:
Scott Brison
New Democratic Party:
Kaye Johnson
Natural Law Party:
Richard Hennigar
Marijuana Party:
Jim King
Communist Party:
Graham Jake MacDonald
Kenneth MacEachern

Rt Hon Joe Clark

Previous Result:
Byelection 2000
General 1997

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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10/10/00 L.O. Email:
Scott Brison has one of the safest seats in Nova Scotia. That's why Joe Clark picked it. But not only is it a safe PC seat -it is particularly supportive of Mr Scott Brison. Anyone who attends their annual PC barbeque at the Brison property will know that there are at least several hundred extremely strong core supporters and activists that help Mr Brison. Beyond this, Mr Brison now has the support of all the PC MLAs in his riding - some of them newly elected in 1999. They will bolster his position..
11/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
Strong and popular former incumbent Scott Brison will take this seat. He's known as someone who gets action on constituents' files. Also the 50 days of the by-election gave Brison a head-start on a potential popular Grit challenger
15/10/00 Mike Email:
If this seat is so safe, than why did Brison win with just 36% of the vote? Still Clark's choice of this riding will help. For now it looks good for Brison.
15/10/00 J Smith Email:
Joe Clark picked this seat because it was the safest Tory seat in the country. Scott Brison is very popular. PC's keep this one.
26/10/00 C Campbell EMAIL:
The Globe and Mail site ( featured a nice picture of a smiling Brison behind Clark as Clark's introducing the PC platform. (The Globe notes that Brison is the platform co-chair.) When Clark campaigned here in NS last month, Brison was usually close by, introducing Clark and shepherding him through the riding. Certainly, throughout that campaign both Brison and Clark were very visible. Clark mentioned in his acceptance speech that the campaign here had rejuvenated him, something that seems apparent now that he is in a full federal campaign. And Brison now seems to welcome the connection with Clark in the same way that Clark has embraced Mr. Mulroney's presence in the campaign. If this seat is "safe", it's a credit to Brison.
26/10/00 Peter J EMAIL:
Joe should have stayed out here. Instead he'll lose ugly in Calgary Centre. While I argue that Elsie's riding is the safest for the Tories, this one's second best. If the Tories were in power Clark would make Brison a Senator
29/10/00 A.S.
What a way to guarantee a safe seat; sacrifice it temporarily on behalf of the party. Yes, his '97 mandate was low; but that was due to NS's three-and-a-half-way-choice confusion (Lib 30, NDP 19, Ref 13) and the fact that Brison was a less known quantity, neither seasoned like Casey nor son-of-seasoned like MacKay. Now, he's known, and Nowlan rather than nowt.
29/10/00 JRFD Email:
The Tories need to hold on to this seat. Unfortunately for them they are doing so badly in the polls that they will lose all but their safest seats. I would suggest ignoring the By-election resaults because there was no Liberal candidate and Joe Clarke isn't running here again. Brinson isn't a particularly bad MP but he's not high profile enough to survive a Tory slaughter. The CA isn't strong enough to be anymore than a spoiler
12/11/00 JaneyCanuck Email:
I have to disagree that Elsie has the safest seat. At this point, that honour likely goes to Madawaka Restigouche in northern NB. This seat is close behind though with Kaye Johnson an exellent NDP candidate but she will not be able to catch Scott Brison.
14/11/00 Mike D
Joe Clark's debate performance - and Chretien's lack of performance - should seal this one shut. Nothing personal against the Liberal candidate, he seems like a lesser light. Brison also had the good sense to appear on the CBC townhall (as did NDP MP Peter Mancini). The fact that both the NDP and PCs were represented by local candidates, while the Liberals imported Alan Rock and the CA Diane Ablonzy, was quite significant IMHO. Aren't any local Liberal or CA candidates capable of presenting themselves to a nationally televised public forum?
20/11/00 JAD Email:
This is a rerun of the September by-election, with a weak Liberal and four minor party candidates added. Liberal signs and visible support at Debates is way down from 1997, due to a weak candidate with almost no advertising and a poor command of the issues. As well, the other parties just held a dress rehearsal. Even though they aren't running to win, the Liberals will still get a bedrock 20% of the votes. The Alliance's Gerry Fulton is not doing nearly as well as in the by-election, partly due to the difference in the National campaign where Day visited three times with very positive National press coverage instead of the defensive national campaign this time around. My prediction is that Fulton will drop from 16% in the byelection to about 10%. National support for the NDP candidate is weak, but the candidate is repeating and speaks and handles herself well. As well, Alexa will stay closer to home in the last week and that should help her. Some of her support last time was Liberal, but she should hold 25% of the vote. She is the only candidate with any potential growth. The Natural Law Party and the Communists will get about 2% each, Marijuana should hold their 4%, while the independent will get virtualy none outside his family as he seems to have no issue, and no reason for running. This leaves about 35% for the PC and should give him a comfortable win. There is an outside chance that a large move by the NDP due to poll results or some other event could make this close, but only an "earthquake" would do it. The other six have no chance unless Brison and Johnson are killed on the 101.
22/11/00 N.P. Email:
The liberal machine was out in full force today at Acadia, a university in Wolfville. Shiela Copps was there and all her crew. The liberals look like they might make a surprise in Nova Scotia come the 27th, more of a surprise then people might think. If the libs can get the student vote out, it may make enough of a difference if it turns out to be a long wait come election night. One things for sure, if a voter's most important issue is the sorry state of the highway going through this riding, the 101.....they've got a wealth of choices....everybody is promising a quick twinning of it if re-elected...ha..we've never heard that one before!!! Ill go out on a limb and say the liberals will take kings hants by a hair the 27th.
24/11/00 Email:
Sheila Copps and her troops will take away this riding from a hugely popular MP in Scott Brison, the same riding where Joe Clark won a byelection landslide? I don't think so.
26/11/00 N.P. Email:
Hold on....First of all, no liberal ran in the byelection so it was basically between Joe and the NDP so to quote those figures from the byelection isn't exactly indicative of what is to happen this time around in a general election. I also think that if, and i'll admit its a big if, the liberals can get the student vote out, it could be enough to drown out Brison. Do the people of Kings Hants want a fourth or fifth party MP or a government backbencher? It will be interesting to see. I still hold my prediction for a liberal surprise on monday night. As to what extent we'll see....
26/11/00 Email:
The previous Liberal post (by N.P.) could be summed up as Liberal cheerleading. Sheila Copps went over like a lead balloon at Acadia. The only positive comment that drifted my way was that people found her voice to be less irritating than on television.
26/11/00 N.P. Email:
The tory, whom i would like to refer to by name but can't because s/he doesn't want to display it, is somewhat dissillusioned at the prospects of another tory win here. I think that a cabinet ministers appearance at Acadia will do more for a party than the half hour or so that the leader of the fifth party would. Im banking on 3 seats in N.S. that'll go liberal. Dartmouth, Halifax West and one from Cape Breton. This riding has been strong tory but do the people of Kings Hants want another 4th/5th party MP? we'll see tomorrow there Mr/s. no name. If the libs don't win, i shall concede defeat as will you im sure after tomorrow night......

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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