Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Sackville-Musquodoboit Valley-Eastern Shore

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Bruce Stephen
Canadian Alliance:
Bill Stevens
Progressive Conservative Party:
Wade Marshall
New Democratic Party:
Peter Stoffer
Marijuana Party:
Melanie Partiquen

Peter Stoffer

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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10/10/00 V.K. Email:m
Peter has a really tough fight ahead of him for this one, but know that he's getting many talented people to work for him, so I have confidence that he'll make it.
11/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
This seat could be a four-way split. The NDP scooped this seat from the Tories by 41 votes in 1997. If it flopped the other way, the Tories would have been in 4th place in the House. For certain, the PCs will be getting every identified vote to the polls, this time. The Musquodobit Valley could be the Reform Party's core of support in the upcoming election. Other than that, the addition of Musquodobit Valley to the riding's name will be Peter Stoffer's only remainder after the polls close....
12/10/00 Email:
Ken Streatch (PC) lost this one to Peter Stoffer (NDP) last time by about 64 votes. This will not be allowed to happen again.
13/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
With such a close election result here last time, look for a Liberal gain in this seat. People only voted NDP because they opposed the Liberals and didn't want to vote right.
13/10/00 Chris Delanoy Email:
Peter Stoffer won this riding by only 41 votes over the Tory candidate in 1997, and his ridiculous "Longshoreman on Parliament Hill" act over the past three years has won few admirers. Expect the Tories to win this one comfortably.
15/10/00 Mike Email:
I was really wrong on this one last election. I predicted an easy Tory win. Stoffer surprised everyone by defeated Streach. Since the election, he has been a very visible and populist MP who was lucky to get the spotlight of the fisheries portfolio. His populism includes pushing for a law to prevent MPs from crossing the floor without the permission of their constituents.
If the CA showes up in Nova Scotia they will take Tory votes in rural areas of this riding, making a win even easier for Stoffer's well-oiled machine.
24/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
I'd have to say now that this will be a close race between the incumbent NDP Stoffer and Tory challenger, Wade Marshall, a very popular Halifax Regional School Board councillor from Sackville -- the very heart of NDP support. Given his popularity (he wasn't opposed in this month's school board election) in the NDP core and the Tories' support in the rural areas, will likely mean that Marshall will tip the scales in favour of the PCs.
26/10/00 Mike D EMAIL:
Lots of people get acclaimed to the HRM school board. Marshall already had one run-in with the NDP in Sackville. 1999 provincial results for Sackville-Cobequid: Holm (NDP) 57%, Marshall (PC) 29%. Lower Sackville makes up the largest part of this ridings population and has become an NDP fortress provincially and federally.
29/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
If you want to look at the provincial results from Sackville-Cobequid, go back another year and you'll see the NDP-PC margin as 63-15. Obviously he's done quite a bit to win over votes and a lot of them in the NDP's core. Don't forget that the NDP only took this seat by 41 votes last time. And as far as HRM school board goes, you mean to tell me that some socialist wouldn't try to get on the school board, given it's supposed rock-solid backing for the NDP? Marshall will be going to Ottawa after the 27th.
29/10/00 Initial
An electoral situation as unwieldy as the name. Remember: by no sane judgment was this riding supposed to go NDP in '97; it was Streach's up to the final stretch. And it's not our fault that Stoffer may have turned out a brilliant surprise, tons more competent than mosta those Bob Rae turnip-truckers what struck Texas tea in 1990. (And none of *them* even won with as low a vote as Stoffer!) But ay caramba, he's *still* very much in the race...
29/10/00 JRFD
Peter Stoffer is a very popular MP. A CA youth member from Alberta even wrote a letter to the editor in the herald praising Stoffer's work. ( The Herald's Ottawa reporter Brian Underhill also reports that Stoffer's is amoung the safest seats in Nova Scotia. ( The other parties are running weak candidates against Stoffer so he should have little trouble rising above in this 4 party race. This new riding was supposed to be Tory last time and they couldn't win it dispite having a high profile and popular candidate in Ken Streach. Althought they are still Stoffer's biggest competition the Tory support will probably bleed enough to the CA to put them out of contention.
07/11/00 Pundit Email:
The NDP are sliding in this riding. Count on this to return to its traditional PC base as the Libs and NDP's split the left of centre vote.
08/11/00 James T. Chlup
I would have thought this seat would be an easy PC gain, but given the slump in both PC and NDP support, this is a Liberal possiblity. Still, I think that PC will come through on the night. Stoffer has been a bit of a non-entity, I think.
08/11/00 Andrew Steeves
There's talk on the street that a good many of Stoffer's NDP voters in the last election will go Alliance this time as they want change. Change is in the air in this riding and the results may be suprising.
08/11/00 Jeff A.
This will be another close race. The CA candidate is well-known on a personal level by many people in the riding, and the addition of the Valley to the riding will bring a good core base for CA. Peter Stoffer is a nice guy, but he isn't the most inspiring man on the planet. This will hurt him this time around. The riding is so large that the performance of the federal leaders can make a huge difference and cause a great deal of sway. A good showing by Stockwell Day in the televised debate will help to elevate Bill Stevens to parliament.
12/11/00 DAR Email:
Bruce Stephen the Liberal candidate is a well known local businessman and tv personality. He was the defeated lib candidate in the 88 provincial election. He has a very good chance to win this riding as he comes up the middle. This riding is a tight three way race between the NDP, PC's and Liberals. With Alliance support evaporating quickly east of the Manitoba border, Atlantic Canadians will want a few seats on the Liberal government side if it appears the Liberals are to be returned. This is one of those swing ridings, it is rural and urban, blue, grey, with some white collar, contains many young first time house owners with small familys, 50+ empty nesters, military personnel, and a fair sprinkling of the typical "905" voters in the Fall River area. Most of those intended Alliance votes will ironicallly end up Liberal in this very large, diverse and unpredictable riding.
13/11/00 Mike D
I work in this riding and drive through some parts of it, so I get to see some of the sign war. Stoffer has by far the most signs, but the NDP always does well in lawn signs (even when they lose). Though this sign war is more decisive than most. Second place goes to the Liberals. Most PC signs are on public property. On lawns there are about as many CA signs as PC signs. Judging solely from the sign war, and this is hardly scientific, Liberal Bruce Stephen is Stoffers main challenger. I'd tell you what my co-workers say about the race, but they never talk about politics. Odd.
15/11/00 DJH Email:
Around the area that I live PC lawn signs are starting to grow, I feel that the amount of seats that the NDP won last time was just the luck of the draw. I feel this time I should vote PC becasue we still need a Fed. PC party,if they get less than 12 seats it could be the end, the CA is not a true Canadian Party.
19/11/00 Mark Email:
No doubt this riding will be close, as it was last time around, but anyone who thinks the Tories are even in second place in this riding must be dreaming. This is clearly a two horse race between the incumbent NDPer and Liberal Bruce Stephens. If the NS Liberal vote stays at the 49-51% level to which the pollsters keep referring, this seat will be part of the much ballyhooed Liberal wave in Atlantic Canada. If that level of support turns out to be feeble, the incumbent may hold on. The Tories, however, are definitely not in this race.
22/11/00 JRFD Email:
Janey's comments are clearly supposed to be in Beausejour - Petitcodiac and is referring to New Brunswick's Sackville. Nova Scotia's Sackville is an NDP stronghold and will go NDP no question. Mark is right in that this is a fight between the Liberals and NDP, Stoffer himself is saying that. The Tory vote in Halifax's 4 ridings has collapsed with the Corporate Research poll showing NDP-28 Lib-25 PC-15 Undecided-25 (I guess that leaves the CA at 7). The Liberals were never in the 49-51% level in Nova Scotia where they are weakest in Atlantic Canada. Mark is probably refering to Atlantic Canada numbers. So in the end what will determine this election is what the former Tories will do in a traditional Tory riding. (Although it is new it is made up of many Tory ares.) Will they go Alliance because its right wing; will they go Liberal because they believe the polarization myth; will they go NDP because Stoffer has been an effective MP; or will they stay home? I say a lit! tle of each. Stoffer may also benefit from the anti-Liberal vote. The undecided seems to be anti-Liberal and anti-CA, many may even go back to the Tories. Not enough for them to win though, they are hurting too badly. Another bonus for Stoffer is that Sackville and Eastern Passage, two of the largest parts of the riding, have been established as NDP strongholds over the last few years. I think Stoffer will keep this riding, and if he does he will likely keep it for years to come. He has served his constituents well by returning all phone calls personally, getting out to every community event he can (he's well known in the Legions), and actually making house calls so that constituents don't have to drive across this large riding to visit him.
24/11/00 James Britten Email:
This riding will be close but it will definitely be a Liberal win. Th attitude of the electorate is that our riding now nds to sit at the table of governmeent. Thusfar, this new riding has had PC and then NDP reprsentation and nothing of significance has een done for this diverse Riding. It's time we are recognizd in caucus. Polls show the Liberals out in front, and those are NDP polls.
24/11/00 Mike D
In today's Halifax Herald, Don MacDonald says Stoffer is safe (and that his caucus-mates Earle and Dockrill are toast). How does one get access to NDP internal polls?
24/11/00 JRFD Email:
Sorry bud, this riding has never had a PC rep since the riding was created in '97 (unless you count a few hours on election night that CBC declared it for Streach). Before that every seat in NS was Liberal and look what that got us. I am baffled as to how someone who is obviously a Liberal has access to NDP internal polls, its not like they post this stuff on their webpage. Infact this kind of info is kept quite secret. The people I know who do have access to this kind of information are saying that Stoffer will win but Earle and Dockrill won't.
26/11/00 larry skoog Email:
I thought PCS were in position to gain a seat- if they cannot win this seat bad news for official party status-if NDP win this seat- then chance at official party status
26/11/00 Trevor S. Email:
Tom, Tom, Tom, why didn't you run in this riding??!! That would have guaranteed a safe Tory seat in Nova Scotia, mailly because this was Tom's provincial riding in the 1980's. The '97 win of Stoffer was a fluke, a protest vote against the Liberals. He has no chance this time, mainly with the surging Tories getting set to return this traditional Tory stronghold to the fold, even if Marshall is widely unknown. A Tom McInnis win in Dartmouth however is, unfortunately, a stretch.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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