Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Aileen Carroll
Canadian Alliance:
Rob Hamilton
Progressive Conservative Party:
Jane MacLaren
New Democratic Party:
Keith Lindsay
Brian White
Canadian Action Party:
Ian Woods

Aileen Carroll

Previous Result:

Population: 102 097
Avg Household Income 51 688
Language (Home)
English 96 225
Submitted Information
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21/10/00 A.S. Email:
The city of Barrie's the centre of Reform's legendary 1993 foothold in Ontario, but that deceptive superlative was diluted through Grit-friendly redistribution. And it didn't help Reform's anti-French image that their '97 candidate, Bonnie Ainsworth, had previously been a federal and provincial candidate for Confederation of Regions. Maybe this time'll be the charm...
23/10/00 AL Email:
If the Alliance manage a breakthrough in Ontario this seat will be one of their gains.
26/10/00 Guy Montag EMAIL:
Aileen won this riding by almost 9000 votes and would have to suffer an enormous supporter meltdown in order to lose this one. The facts are very clear, Aileen has a very long history of community involvement in this riding (remember her raising the money to build St. Joe's? how about our new library?) and that continued as she became our MP. She is very bright and cares a very great deal for this riding. I have never met anyone with more dignity and grace and know of very few people who have met her that would disagree with me. What, besides weekly riots ouside of the Roxx does Rob Hamilton bring to the riding? Mr. Hamilton doesn't even LIVE in Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford yet his nightclubs downtown have been a nuisance to the city for 10 years! Godspeed Aileen!
01/11/00 Victoria Young
There is a close race between the CA and the Liberals in Barrie-Simcoe-Bradford. The CA has been bolstered by the Tory collapse in this riding, while Aileen Carroll, an invisable backbencher, is facing voters who are angry with the arrogance of the Chretien government. A commuter riding in the centre of the fastest growing region in Canada, many of its voters will have little interest in the local candidates. They are also fairly conservative, having recently elected MPP Joe Tascona (PC) with 66% of the vote. And to correct Guy Montag, Rob Hamilton does live in the city of Barrie, close to Minet's Point. Prediction: Too Close (CA/Liberal)
03/11/00 Brad Nicpon
I don't have the CA icon here because I think this is going to be an easy Alliance catch or anything, but I just wanted to point out that this is an interesting riding because the Reform did moderately well last time, but so did the PCs... If three-quarters of the PC support went to the CA this time it would be the end of the Liberals here.. and since the PCs don't seem to have any party machinery up and running in B-S-B... do they even have a candidate? Definately one to watch.
04/11/00 Commuter
Very likely to turn against the Liberals like neighboring Collingwood. Barrie has a much higher concentration of small business women/men whom are more prone to vote for the Alliance's small business friendly policy's. Young , well liked, ambitious Alliance Candidate against a Liberal back, back, back, bencher.
06/11/00 ST
Canadian Alliance candidate, Rob Hamilton, will win this riding. This riding is a mostly middle-class commuter community with conservative roots. Rob Hamilton is very well respected & well known here. With the creation of the Canadian Alliance & the election of the new leader, Stockwell Day, membership in this riding & the rest of Ontario has skyrocketed. The vote for the CA candidate drew about 750 of the approximately 1500 local members & the place was packed shoulder-to-shoulder. Many attendees were women & young people. The 3 candidates were all excellent (3rd place candidate only missed 2nd by 3 votes!). The buzz in the room was palpatable - people want a real change. The CA has a real conservative who is well known locally running in a conservative riding for a party with a huge army of motivated members for the only federalist opposition party which can form a government against a liberal backbencher who just votes as she's told to. The CA will surprise many on Nov 27 by winnning more ridings than just this one on Ontario - the scene described above (nomination meeting) is happening in many Ontario ridings.
12/11/00 Sean
Canadian Alliance candidate, Rob Hamilton, will win this one. The only other competitive party here is the Liberals, whose local membership numbers have not been made public to my knowledge. This area has been mostly ignored by the previously governing party & the incumbent's back, back, back bench status has not helped. If lawn signs are any indication, there should be no doubt who will win this riding (although the Liberal candidate seems to think larger signs equal more votes). An Alliance win here would give the area a much greater profile in a CA government. The Canadian Alliance candidate, Rob Hamilton, is a locally well known well respected successful entrepreneur & employer with deep local roots running for Canada's largest political party in a riding full of entrepreneurs & conservative-minded people. The local Canadian Alliance membership was recently pegged by local media at 1500 & growing, about 750 of whom attended the recent standing-room-only three-candidate nomination meting. On the other hand, the local newspaper ( recently reported that the local PC nomination meeting at a local sandwich shop was "...hastily organized..." & attended by six members who acclaimed their candidate. The PC candidate still needs to 100 signatures before she can run in he election, not to mention office space.

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Last Updated 25 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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