Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Beaches-East York

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Hon Maria Minna
Canadian Alliance:
Abu Alam
Progressive Conservative Party:
Wayne Clutterbuck
New Democratic Party:
Mel Watkins
Natural Law Party:
Donalda Fredeen
Green Party:
James Mendel
Communist Party:
Ann Nicholson
Marxist-Leninist Party:
Steve Rutchinski
Marijuana Party:
Bruce Watson
Canadian Action Party:
Randall Whitcomb

Hon Maria Minna

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Scarborough Southwest

Population: 104 346
Avg Household Income 48 723
Language (Home)
English 85 840
Chinese 5 295
Submitted Information
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14/10/00 Paul Kasman Email:
The NDP riding association has just nominated Mel Watkins as the NDP candidate for Beaches - East York. Mel ran in the last election garnering almost 30% of the vote and coming in an easy 2nd. Watkins has name recognition in the riding, is a great speaker, and a powerhouse campaigner judjing from his prefromance in debates I saw in '97. Also, the NDP has elected members provincially (even with the NDP slaughter in '99), and Municipally. They also had federal members in the Beaches for decades before 1993. On top of all that, incumbant Maria Minna has been a ghost in the riding and the pamflets she has dispersed over the past years could have been given out by any Liberal MP in the country with a name change. The tories (who still have some gas in their engine in this riding) and the Alliance, will steal right wing Liberals who want decent representation from someone more compotent than Minna allowing the NDP to cruise (or squeek depending on the Alliences preformance) in with a disappointed Minna learning what happens when you ignore the people who elected you.
16/10/00 Richard Email:
This is not an election where the NDP are going to pick up any seats. They are going to lose some. Alexa has no national presence. This election is widely seen as a two way race between the Liberals and the Alliance. Minister Mina is going to be re-elected due to the weak national NDP support and fear of the ultra right alliance.
20/10/00 WM Email:
In last year's provincial election, the New Democrats garnered 46% of the vote in this riding, despite losing elsewhere. PCs and Liberals trailed at less than 30% and 22% respectively. Mel Watkins will be a powerful challenger to the nearly invisible Liberal incumbent; he should come out on top on election day.
31/10/00 A.S. Email:
What's even more surprising than Mel Wafflekins getting his new lease on life last time is that he's back to try it again. Despite what the first prediction suggests, he got only 23% in '97; unless there's an unforeseen NDP surge and the proper vote-splitting that allowed them to win in the past happens once again, his chances are slim. In fact, it's conceivable that he could fall behind CA, given that this was Reform's best riding btw/Scarborough and Etobicoke in '97 (and united, the right beat NDP). The boundary nudge E York-ward further faintened NDP possibilities--but countering this is the "Frances Lankin factor" (though many of her supporters are more likely "Lankin Liberals"). And such support, fortified by Lankin's strong provincial win within these boundaries, might more clearly accentuate--as in Trinity-Spadina--NDP as the "strategic alternative". *Despite* national polls.
30/10/00 Steven Lloyd
This one is tricky to call. Mel Watkins is a Star NDP candidate and will have a very strong showing. The Liberals are riding high however, and Minna has had the resources of a Cabinet minister (However stupid a portfolio.) Keep an eye on this riding
01/11/00 AL
In reply to FS above: It depends on what exactly it is voters are looking for an alterative to... the Alliance or the Liberals? If voters are tiring of the Liberals they may go to the NDP in Beaches-East York as the best way of sending the Grits a message. If they are afraid of the Alliance forming a government (long shot at best) they will vote Liberal to stop that. I think it's a matter of how well Alliance does in the opinion polls... if they remain under 30% it's less likely anti-Alliance strategic voting will come into play and it's more likely that the NDP will do better in this, a riding which is historically left-wing.
03/11/00 JeffW Email:
The potential exists here for a spike in NDP support, but it's unlikely to be enough to unseat Minna. Lankin is a friend of hers, undercutting whatever help her provinicial machine may offer Watkins. The Alliance and Tories are nowhere here, which should help give the ineffectual Minna another victory.
05/11/00 AL
Lankin may or may not be a friend of Minna's but that's really irrelevent. Frances Lankin cannot and does not switch the NDP machine on and off in Beaches-Woodbine. The riding has one of the largest NDP associations in the province and it goes into swing for federal, provincial, and municipal elections regardless of the friendships of the provincial MPP and in any case, knowing Lankin, I doubt very much she would tell the NDP machine to lay off even if she could.
14/11/00 Email:
AL's 01/11 quote above is right: once Liberal support starts dying (as is now starting to happen), voters will turn to the alternative that's ideologically closest to them. Mel Watkins would make a great representative for this riding, and the energetic NDP volunteers will work hard to elect him on election day. Beaches will swing NDP federally, just as it's NDP provincially.
15/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
I agree that Mel Watkins would make a good MP, but he's not going to get the chance -- Minna is a rising star in the Liberal Party, and the final numbers here aren't going to be much different from last time. (Funny, isn't it, that Chretien appointed cabinet ministers from Beaches-East York and Kenora-Rainy River on the same day ...)
23/11/00 Paul Kasman Email:
Judjing from the lawn signs Watkins is gonna take the southern half of the riding - NDP have 4 signs to 1 against Libs and PC's about the same as Libs the allience isnt even a factor. In the northern half though, the Libs outnumber NDP 4 - 1! Its gonna be real toss up and one to watch Monday on election night.
24/11/00 JeffW Email:
I'm revising my impressions about this one. Watkins has been running hard, and been doing a good job convincing potential supporters he'd make a valuable MP. The southend of the riding seems solidly in his pocket. It could come down to who's better able to pull the vote on Monday. (Said to be a warm, clear day here, so turnout could be high.) At the very least, guaranteed to be much closer than 97.
26/11/00 MH Email:
I'd really like to see Mel win this one but am afraid it's not going to happen. My contacts in the constituency tell me he is running hard, but that the bus has already pulled out of the station. All Mel can hope for is make it closer for the NDP than in '97, and that he should be able to manage.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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