Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Gar Knutson
Canadian Alliance:
Bill Walters
Progressive Conservative Party:
Delia Reiche
New Democratic Party:
Tim McCallum
Ken DeVries
Green Party:
John R. Fisher

Gar Knutson

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:
London West

Population: 96 665
Avg Household Income 46 867
Language (Home)
English 89 300
German 2 630
Submitted Information
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23/10/00 AL Email:
We're getting into fairly solid Harris country here. Canadian Alliance may do well.
25/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Another fun riding. Liberals won it in 1997 with a 14% margin, but their overall win didn't quite make 40%... This right-leaning rural riding is a prime target for the Alliance, but the question everyone is asking around here remains... just how much of the PC vote will go CA? Afterall their combined vote came within a hair of 50% in '97.. more than enough to knock off the Liberal.
26/10/00 Christopher J. Currie EMAIL:
I should probably inform AL that Elgin-Middlesex-London is currently represented by a Liberal in the Provincial Parliament (Steve Peters, to be precise). If they can win this rural riding Provincially, you can take a Federal Liberal victory here to the bank.
> 01/11/00 A.S.
Talk about inside out--the only London-area provincial Liberal riding is the weakest for the Grits federally. Knutson's never had Jumbo victories around St Thomas; but that may have been less due to Reform's rise than surprising PC resilience--Ken Monteith in 1993 was almost a SW Ont version of obscure-yet-locally-popular Easterners like Greg Thompson and Bill Casey, and even Luella Watson kept the PCs in 2nd in '97. On the other hand, I wouldn't rely too much on provincial results as a guide to "safety"; Steve Peters was a popular St Thomas mayor, and the Harris Tories were dented by a campaign gaffe hereabouts. A whole lot of different drummers working here; but technically, I wouldn't consider any under-40% fed Lib riding a "shoo-in". *No matter what* the '99 provincial result.
25/11/00 Kevin S Email:
I believe very strongly that the Canadian Alliance will win this riding. I have several reasons for this conclusion: 1)One of the most popular politicians in this riding, Peter North a former independent MPP is on the Bill Walters campaign team. 2) John Wise a former federal agriculture minister has also taken out an ad in support of Bill Walters 3)I have heard from several people that the current MPP for this riding Liberal Steve Peters is working on the Bill Walters campaign behind the scenes. 4) I have also noticed that Bill Walters has way more election signs on lawns throughout the riding then his main rival Liberal MP Gar Knutson.
26/11/00 lrs
CA have a strong candidate- former Tory MP support- but prov trend too strong for Libs IF CA vote not over 30% with this candidate- then evidence of CA failure to break into Ont
26/11/00 LD Email:
I have worked with the NDP campaign and our private polling in this riding clearly shows that there may be a good chance for an upset. However it`s not the upset I`m hoping for. Our tracking poll from November 22nd to November 25th of 500 people in my riding shows the Alliance at 36%, the Liberals at 31%, the Tories at 20% and my NDP at 11%.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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