Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Brenda Chamberlain
Canadian Alliance:
Max Layton
Progressive Conservative Party:
Marie Adsett
New Democratic Party:
Edward Pickersgill
Marxist-Leninist Party:
Manuel Couto
Green Party:
Bill Hulet
Canadian Action Party:
Sharon Tanti
Gord Truscott

Brenda Chamberlain

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: 102 610
Avg Household Income 51 776
Submitted Information
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25/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email:
Unless the Alliance achives its dreams of no vote-splitting this riding will remain in the Liberal camp. However, the '97 results still give the Liberal a lead over the two right-wing parties combined.
01/11/00 A.S.
Chamberlain prevailed above adverse clutter (including ex-Liberal MP Frank Maine running as an Independent, and ex-CFLer Gerry Organ's serious Reform bid) in '93 and solidified her hold in '97. Though generally part of the loose K-W conurbation, Guelph has also shown inclinations t/w being a just-over-the-905 outer Toronto satellite which, together with very congenial rural polls and an surprise absolute provincial PC majority for Brenda Elliott in '99, should give the Alliance cause for hope. But the university-townness perhaps adds a little too much NDP/Red Tory paint thinner for comfort. More than likely Guelph will continue sending Brendas at both the provincial and federal level...
04/11/00 Commuter Email:
This relatively conservative mix of mid-sized cities / farms /and commuters is likely to turn to the Alliance bigtime given lack of vote split with Tories. This is the type of riding that appreciates the value of hard work and will be turned off by the HRDC fiasco and other Liberal excesses.
09/11/00 Greg Email:
Commuter's forgetting that this time around university's not out. The fairly conservative commuters get cancelled out by a pack of left-of-centre university students and their professors. The more radical ones will provide Edward Pickersgill with ground troops - he's well known in Guelph activist circles. The rest will vote solidly Liberal (except maybe those nutty Aggies...).
20/11/00 K.D. Email:
Guaranteed Liberal. The Alliance may take some of the tradional Tory voters, but not enough to push them over the top. Mostly the Alliance is seen as too extreme -- their social and fiscal conservatism just won't fly here. The universities influence really swings things to the left, and consequently the NDP will pick up a fair chunk of the vote. But this district will go Liberal again, for the lack of any real alternative. Watch for a tiny buy non-trivial Green vote though.

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Last Updated 22 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan