Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
John O'Reilly
Canadian Alliance:
Pat Dunn
Progressive Conservative Party:
Laurie Scott
New Democratic Party:
Rick Denyer

John O'Reilly

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings
Simcoe North
York North
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Population: 100 978
Avg Household Income 42 507
Submitted Information
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14/10/00 Michael Cooper Email:
Liberal incumbent John O'Reilly edged the second-place Reform Party candidate with less than a 2,000 plurality. The Tories took 10,000 votes, henceforth splitting the conservative vote. O'Reilly has been elected in both 1993 and 1997 as a result of vote-splitting on the right. The Tories will be much less competative, allowing the Alliance to solidify the large conservative vote in this bed-rock conservative rural constituency. O'Reilly won't be back in Ottawa after election day.
14/10/00 A.S. Email:
With Simcoe-Grey and Bruce-Grey-OS, one of the Alliance's Ontario "big three"; the ridings where Reform came most dangerously close to toppling the Liberals in '97. Plus, O'Reilly has the lowest elected percentage of any Ontario Liberal; and the MPP is the always Reform-CA-friendly Chris Hodgson, Mike Harris's ostensible heir apparent. If the Alliance doesn't get in now, they've blown it big time.
25/10/00 randy gorman Email:
i disagree with your prediction on this riding,john reilly is widely respected as a hard working mp,who doesn't always agree with the party line but none the less is popular in his riding,i,m not saying it won,t be a close race,however any disenchanted tory voters will most likely vote liberal to punish the canadian alliance.prediction no break through in ontario here.
26/10/00 Brad Nicpon Email:
Reform lost by 2% last time... With the strengthened Alliance disenchanted conservatives will almost certainly flow to the CA candidate (or more than to the Liberals anyway).. not even very many would have to. Just based on the fact that the Alliance is significantly more powerful than the Reform and the Reform almost won here as it is I throw this one to the Alliance.
03/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
This is the bedrock of potential support for the Alliance in Ontario. If they don't take this one, the Alliance may as well drop all pretense of ever becoming a national party. But don't count on them to take it by more than 5%. Even the Ontario riding most positive toward the Alliance, they will get nowhere near the majority of the vote. I spent an evening talking politics with three older women who live in this riding. They are classic potential Alliance voters: wealthy, white, small-c conserative. But they thought Stockwell Day would break up the country. These conservative women didn't trust Day to manage the national unity file. And they would not vote for him under any circumstances. If Day can't improve his party's image vis a vis Quebec, he can kiss any thoughts of winning more than a couple seats in Ontario - and forming a government ever - goodbye.
04/11/00 M Doble Email:
I believe with the entrance of Laurie Scott as the PC candidate (daughter of longtime PC member Bill Scott), along with the national trend to the Liberals that John O'Reilly will again take the riding in a close race. John has done a great deal in terms of bringing much needed grant money to various parts of the riding. This will reap political benefits on Nov 27.
04/11/00 Lindsay
Alliance lock given sitting MP is ultimate back, back, back, bencher and Tories unlikley to poll more than 10%.
09/11/00 sandy Email:
As more voters learn what Dunn and the Alliance Party really stand for this riding will stay Liberal. O'Reilly is well respected and sincere unlike his Alliance opponent.
17/11/00 Brad Nicpon
First of all, Sandy, a statement like "As more voters learn what Dunn and the Alliance Party really stand for.." is nothing more than Liberal propaganda and has nothing to do with a logical prediction for HVB. Secondly, study after study has shown that local candidates have little to do with voters choice in a Canadian Election - it's the party that makes the difference... so it is generally irrelevant that you think the Liberal Candidate is "well respected". With that out of the way... this riding is Alliance Priority #1 in Ontario along with Simcoe-Grey. They have put a lot of work into winning it and there are plenty of reasons to believe they will be successful. Foremost is simply that the Alliance enjoys significantly more support in Ontario than the Reform party ever did.. and the Reform came very close to winning here last time. The CA has seen more than enough success in HVB to push them over the top, and when it comes down to it on Nov. 27 my prediction for this riding will definately be Alliance win.... although there are very few other ridings in Ontario in which I would be so bold as to predict a similar result..
19/11/00 A.S.
I *am* starting to waver with this--but because I agree that thanks to Laurie Scott, this is truly one of those places which *may* vindicate Pundit's standard spiel about conservative voters (well, *enough* conservative voters) shifting back to PC once Stockwell Day's been, er, "found out". Enough for Scott to win? Enough to save O'Reilly's skin? Enough to reduce Dunn's winning margin to a bare minimum? We'll see...
19/11/00 Pundit Email:
Things are really starting to move in this riding, and in much of rural Ontario. Today on Bourque News site he reported: "Is this the Hail Mary Joe Clark's been praying for ? PC Party sources are telling Bourque that in recent days internal polling shows they "have moved up 7 pts in Ontario, at the expense of the CA. The CA has NO idea what to do about it, as it was not in their plan. Seems all the help they were counting on from the Harris ground troops has fizzled and the close races are closer than anyone thinks" ... " That's what appears to be happening in this riding. When it started I certainly wouldn't have given Lori Scott a chance, even though she's a great candidate and her father held the riding for so many years as a PC, but now her campaign is taking off and Day's flip flop on referendums, reported today is causing further damage on the ground. This may still go Liberal, but if not I would bet PC. And to Mr. Nicpon, you can call the Alliance hidden agenda "liberal propaganda" all you want, but you look rather foolish doing so. If anyone cares to review the Cambridge riding posts, I predicted the agend would come to light some 4 weeks ago, which has come to pass. Mr. Nicpon called such a prediction ridiculous.
21/11/00 sandy Email:
Personally knowing Dunn I wouldn't vote for him no matter what party he ran for. But he certainly fits into the Alliance mould.
22/11/00 GLS Email:
Brad thinkgs that study after study support the notion that local candidates don't have a major impact on elections - that the leader and the national campaign matter. In theory this is true, but the reality in HVB shows the theory doesn't always apply. Bill Scott, P.C. won 9 elections regardless of what was happening on the national stage. He won with a Liberal minority, Liberal majority, Tory majority. Similarily, provincially John Eakins (Lib) won during a Liberal majority, Liberal minority, PC majority and PC minority. In rural ridings, the local candidate does make a difference.
22/11/00 Brad Nicpon
Alright, I have made my prediction specifically for this page and explain it as well.. but want to make something clear. Pundit - Your comment "Look for Mr. Day's social agenda to be smoked out on the national stage, however, with a PC recovery being the main result" on the Cambridge page is ridiculous because A) The Alliance is Not going to be smoked out nationally no matter what you think. I do not have any illusions of grandeur about the CA in this election, but I guarentee they will once again form the opposition, and will pick up more seats than the Reform party ever had. and B) The PCs simply will not win all these seats in Ontario you are claiming. I would be surprised if they even win ONE (York North or Oxford are their only long shots). Haliburton-Victoria-Brock, or Cambridge will not go to the PCs. Look at the numbers... Last time the Reform party almost won HVB, and it is completely illogical to think that somehow the PCs have garnered enough support to s! urpass the CAs performance. The Alliance is significantly more popular in Ontario than the Reform party. While I will admit Clark did well on the debate and some polls show his numbers up - we are still talking above a move from maybe 8% to 10% nationally.. with those stats the PCs are fighting an uphill battle just to retain official party status, let alone have any hopes of winning enough seats to form the opposition, and certainly not the government. ..this is especially true if the Liberals hold their lead in the East where the majority of PC seats currently are. If the Maritimes turn Red, then the PCs are done for. I doubt if Clark will even win his own seat. So, make sure you have some basis for your claims of CA-strong ridings (like Simcoe-Grey, Haliburton, etc.) or Lib-strong ridings (you predicted a PC win in London North Centre) in Ontario going to the PC Party, when clearly all logic suggests otherwise. I don't claim to know the future however, but we'll see if I am wrong on Election day (and the majority of Media and Polling firms to).
23/11/00 Richard Ciano
Todays Toronto Star (Thursday November 23) cites a Toronto Star - CKVR poll of 14 ridings in and around this area. They write that "Remotely close races that Graves pointed to include Haliburton-Victoria-Brock where the Tory candidate Laurie Scott is running second to Liberal incumbent John O'Reilly. Alliance candidate Pat Dunn is in third place." It looks like the Scott factor is in full effect here. Good for Laurie. Having met here a couple of times I can attest to the fact that she is a very likeable candidate. She has worked her heart out and deserves to win this race. The publication of that poll proves that an Alliance vote here is wasted and that should help her consolidate the anti-liberal vote in the riding and win.
23/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
Ekos has a poll of the riding showing the Liberals at 46%, PCs at 26% and Alliance at 23%. The margin of error is 7% and it was taken on November 19-21. These results are consistent with both anecdotal evidence and the province-wide numbers. It looks like the Alliance campaign has completely fizzled in Ontario and the Liberals are going to retain this seat. Watch for Stockwell Day to be pushed out by Christmas. Find the poll at
23/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
Shock New VR poll shows the Liberals with a 20 point lead, and the Alliance in third.
23/11/00 jgh Email:jgh
Well, Brad, the illogical has happened. Ekos poll of HBV shows that the Tories have passed the CA into 2nd place, 46L, 26PC, 23CA, 5NDP with 40% of voters likely to change their minds before election day and with the 2nd choice parties running as follows: PC22, L14, CA10, NDP8. With Zogby showing national Tory gains of 1% per day, (along with CA drop of 1% per Day) anything can happen.
23/11/00 Pundit Email:
Mr. Nicpon, we'll simply have to disagree on Stockwell's agenda being smoked out. I think it is evident that this has already happened. You disagree, but people can draw their own conclusion. Today's story was the a senior Alliance MP confirmed that the Alliance would roll back CPP benefits. I would argue that agenda has been kept secret, but again people can judge. Your predictions for the Tories are not coming true. Two national polls were released today, and both have the PC's ahead of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada. In the Reuters poll the PC's are at 38% and the Libs at 33%. There has been a quantum shift over the last week, which is being widely reported today. In that same poll PC national support is up to 14%. In Ontario the PC's are at 16% and Alliance has fallen to 22%. In a riding like this, where Ms. Scott has such deep roots and is so personally popular, the PC's are coming on strong. At a minimum, I predict the PC's will win this riding, Oxford, Northumberland and Hastings. I think North York and Lanark are also both within reach. To really go out on a limb, I predict the Tories will win 15 seats in the Maritimes, picking up Fredricton, two PEI ridings and Mathew's seat in Nfld. This assumes the Tories lose 2 incumbant seats, although they may only lose one. Bachand will win his seat in Quebec, Borotsik will win Brandon and Clark will win Calgary Centre. Thats 22 seats and maybe more. Count on it.
25/11/00 A.S.
With his "smoked out agenda" tedium, Pundit's a mush-mouthed insult to his own pro-PC cause. But more and more, I wouldn't be surprised that with Joe Clark's upward momentum, the PCs are on track t/w not only gaining points but *seats* in Ontario--more seats, perhaps, than the Alliance, and this being among them, with humble Laurie Scott pulling the rug from under the Grit/CA feet. I won't make this a *prediction*, but watch, anyway, and if it happens, don't say I didn't warn you...
26/11/00 lrs Email:
should not be a Lib seat- will be indication of vote splitting and CA failure to break into Ontario -if CA wins -then pollsters are way off- Day did not go here during last week- so probably lost cause

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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