Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Markham

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
John McCallum
Canadian Alliance:
Jim Jones
Progressive Conservative Party:
David Scrymgeour
New Democratic Party:
Janice Hagan
Independent:
Akbar Choudhry
Canadian Action Party:
Jim Conrad
Green Party:
Bernadette Manning

Incumbent:
Jim Jones

Previous Result:
36.74%
44.70%
10.81%
3.24%

Misc:
Population: 104 430
Avg Household Income 79 182
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email: mdparkes@msn.com
Jim Jones will win here again. He is in the heart of the 905 area, which went staunchly Tory in the 1999 provincial election.
15/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email: 4zeke@writeme.com
I don't know if Jim Jones will win this seat. The tories will run someone and I forsee some vote spliting. Also, the Libs are going to put John MaCullum in this seat, as the former Chief Economist of the Royal Bank,he has some credibility and name recognition and he has plenty of safe Liberal seats around him, I think he has a shot at winning
16/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
The Liberals have their star candidate in Ontario running in this seat -- a big Royal Bank economist. Jim Jones is going down no matter what in this seat. His turncoat ways also don't help.
17/10/00 Ian Berg Email: ipberg@yahoo.com
Jean Chretien has appointd John McCallum (the bank economist who regularly appears on CBC and CTV) to be Liberal candidate. Too bad for the Liberals, McCallum lacks the charm and wit of fellow parachute MP Brian Tobin when each are sworn in after the next election. Markham Liberals will rally around their appointed candidate and get enough old Jim Jones voters to vote Liberal rather than Alliance.
18/10/00 L.O. Email: sprockley@hotmail.com
Jim Jones took this riding as a Tory. He will hang onto it as an Alliance member. This was never more certain than after he was removed from the PC caucus. He is ahead in the polls here, and he has strong backing from his party. Jim Jones is a star that is starting to look like a slightly more partisan Nunziata. He'll keep his seat.
19/10/00 Mike Email:
Although it is now an Allaince seat after Jim Jones joined the party, it is important to note that it wasn't him who won the seat in '97. It was the PC Party and the huge voklunteer base they have in the area. Wait for a strong PC candidate to emerge and the same team that delivered it last time. Jones wanted to run again for the Tories but the caucus wouldn't allow this unpredictable and unpopular MP to return, no momentum for the Allaince here. And as for the liberals, this is traditionally a Tory stronghold, and it will be again!
19/10/00 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Even with the party switch, and perhaps even in spite of McCallum's candidacy (though that neutralizes the Asian-candidate "Jag Bhaduria hangover" factor that snipped the Grits last time) Jim Jones ought to have been relatively safe--but there's a strange crimp in his disfavour; David Tsubouchi is one of the few MPPs who still openly supports the federal Tories. Thus, out of the (Tory) blue, the fatal split-in-the-right factor that miraculously *didn't* happen last time may well happen *this* time...
20/10/00 J Smith Email:the_freakxxx@hotmail.com
Jones was never accepted by the Tory caucus, and was kicked out. He didn't defect, he was exiled! The tories have a popular Ontario cabinet minister to help win this seat back. The ghost of Jag Bhaduria will continue to haunt the liberals. The Conservatives will win this seat from, in a close 2-way race with the Liberals. The Alliance will not be factor, despite a sitting MP as a candidate.
22/10/00 Brad Nicpon Email:
This is definately going to be an interesting riding to watch in Ontario. Really I could see it going any way except NDP. The Liberals think their Star Candidate will be a shoe-in, but that is not necessarily so. Star Candidates go down all the time. If the CA has managed to get significantly more Ontario support by election day I would except Markham to be one of the first ridings they get. However, you never know about vote-splitting. PCs exist here but I give them backseat to the Liberals and CA fighting it out.
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
Jones switching is basically a non-issue. The PC's won this riding in 1997 on the strength of their ground organization, which has stayed loyal to the federal PC's.
26/10/00 Tory by conviction EMAIL:
The Tories nominated David Scrymgeour (pronounced Scrimger)as the Markham candidate tonight. David is a successful businessman with international and Ottawa experience. As a long time resident in and around Markham, David is concerned about the lack of responsible representation this riding in the last two terms. The residents of this riding will have to ask themselves, do they want to return someone to Ottawa who is only interested in collecting his pension, or someone who is parachuted from Oakville as a yes man for the Prime Minister or someone who has a strong desire to serve the people of Markham as it grows into the future.
26/10/00 A.S. Email: ask@askwebscan.com
Jones is a putz! He couldn't win an election with only an NDP against him. The PC's will win again because of thier strong ground crew. It wasn't Jim's good looks ;-) or charm that did it last time...
30/10/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
This riding was included in the '905 oversampling' of the October 27th COMPAS poll: Liberals 62, Alliance 24, PC 9.
30/10/00 Jeff Bennett Email:jbennett@execulink.com
John McCallum, Vice-President and Chief Economist of the Royal Bank of Canada has been appointed by Prime Minister Chretien to stand for the Liberals here. McCallum is a star candidate, and guaranteed a seat at the cabinet table should the Liberals be returned. McCallum will win this seat with no difficulty at all.
30/10/00 insider Email:
Interesting to read the comments about the PC ground organization in Markham. It's true that Jones won in '97 in part due to his well organized campaign team. Expect that same strong organization again for Jones. As for the Tories, they are a non-factor here. They have very little ground organization left here - virtually all 'active' members have left for the Alliance. The only question is whether they'll pull in over 10-15% of the vote. If they do, it'll be a very tight race b/w Jones & McCallum. If they are under 10%, expect Jones to win in the same fashion as last time. Long-time Markham residents don't like outsiders, and both the Liberal & Tory candidates are outsiders with no record of involvement in the riding.
02/11/00 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Irrespective of party labels, I doubt that a star candidate of McCallum's prestige has much chance of being defeated. Jones and the Tory candidate will probably vie for second.
02/11/00 Tory by conviction Email:
I think insider is on the outside on this one. Jones organization started leaving him two years ago. Most of them are on the sideline in this election. Others left the PC and joined the Alliance because they cannot stand Jones. Now that Jones is over there, don't be surprise if they come back to PC. Partisan politics aside, Jones just did not serve this riding well and does not deserve to get elected whether he ran as an Alliance, Liberal, or for the Rhino party. You cannot lump Scrymgeour and McCallum in the same boat. McCallum was anointed by the PM because he would not be able to win the nomination in Markham. The last Liberal candidate Gobinder Rhandowa had been out signing memberships to take another run when he got hooked (again). Scrymgeour grew up in Agincourt and had lived in Markham before. He had worked at IBM in Markham. he has links to this riding unlike McCallum who lives in Oakville.
06/11/00 suresh Email:yu598@hotmail.com
John McCaulum is a great guy. apaeople here are fed up with jones. He swithched parties. Markham residents will vote liberal because they are happy with the liberal economic performance.
06/11/00 ST Email:
Canadian Alliance will win this riding, & some more in Ontario too. People know Jim Jones is conservative & that the PCs are also-rans in this election. The only real conservative party is now the Canadian Alliance anyway. People know that te only federalist party capable of forming a government or at least providing a strong conservative voice in government, now or in the future, is the Canadian Alliance. The PCs are irrelevant now - their "leader", dug up from some political graveyard, will not even win a seat in Parliament.
07/11/00 Woofie boy Email:
The important thing in this riding is not only who is running. I'll give you all one acronym: GOTV. The Alliance undoubtedly has the best ability to get out the vote of all parties nationally (David Taras, Prof of Political Science at U of C on CBC National Magazine, Nov. 6, 2000), and Jones is a well-liked candidate. The momentum the Alliance is enjoying is only gravy. It will be close, but the Alliance will take the seat.
10/11/00 Email:
Get-out-the-vote is important, but can only be done with ground troups and good local organization. They have this out West where they have been able to rack up super majorities, but they have thus far not had such success in Ontario. It all depends, I suppose, how much of the Big Blue Machine Jim Jones was able to bring with him. It is also far from certain how many Tories actually want to vote Alliance. It will be interesting to watch.
11/11/00 lrs Email:
Liberals should win- Jones win last time a fluke due to weak Lib candidate running last time- Although this seat represents true Lib opportunism- swing to LIBs will ensure seat goes back Liberal- sure LIB ethnic candidate told to forget it and go to the back room by Lib organization- if CA had tried to do this would be national news but Liberals favoured by media.- Tory will still take votes from CA- Jones should get more than 30% of vote( a moral victory for any CA candidate in Ont- but at least 10% victory for Liberal
18/11/00 MH Email:
'Woofie Boy' refers to "the momentum the Alliance is enjoying." What has the Woofster been smoking? Or is Markham quite unlike the other constituencies around Toronto? In any case, turncoats rarely thrive in Canadian politics, and Jones is likely to be one of several who'll bite the dust on Nov. 27th. McCallum my be from Oakville, but he fits Markham like a glove. Unless a major shift occurs during the last week of the campaign, jonew will be looking for other employment.
19/11/00 D Fleed Email:wwrep@hotmail.com
The issue of McCallum being anointed on racial grounds is gaining traction - Day mentioned it in Markham on 15 Nov. With a 3-way split between Lib/PC/Alliance, don't ignore the independent, Choudhry - he is ethnically Indian and campaigning hard. very interesting. Should see media covering this riding more in the last week.
19/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
I got two words for you: "Asian Invasion." Jim Jones can kiss his seat in this multi-ethnic, Asian immigrant populated riding goodbye. Liberals in a cake walk, thanks to Betty Granger's paranoia.
20/11/00 PJ Email:
McCallum has not come across as well as some might have expected in Markham. He comes across as arrogant, and a many have been saying that the more doors he knocks on, the more votes he loses. There is definitely a 'no parachute candidate sentiment' around. The Indo-Canadian community is very upset over having their candidate shoved aside for McCallum, so I think it is presumptuous to expect that they will vote Liberal. McCallum has very little in terms of a local ground organization - and this may hurt him in the final week and for GOTV. This race is going to be closer than people expect on election day - with a CA upswing this week, this could go to Jones.
21/11/00 ST Email:
I don't think this is the cakewalk that some are predicting for the Libs. At the all candidates debate last night, McCallum was surprisingly not that impressive, and was actually booed on several occasions for his comments. On the other hand, Jones appeared to win the crowd. Additionally, there is a growing anti-appointment sentiment - particularly amongst the Indo-Canadian community, which represents approx. 15% of the riding. They are very angry that their candidate was pushed aside for McCallum appointment - and they'd like to see him lose.
22/11/00 WJM Email:
A Compas poll shows McCallum waaayyyy ahead of the Alliance in Markham, just like in the rest of the 905 belt that the Alliance mythology holds to be "fertile ground". (Have they actually looked at the numbers?) http://www.compas.ca/html/archives/markhamliberallandslide_surv.html Bye-bye, Jimbo!
22/11/00 DJ Email:
A COMPAS/SUN poll shows McCallum crushing his opponents (See http://www.compas.ca/html/archives/markhamliberallandslide_surv.html). Even with the late campaign slippage, the Grits should take this one.
24/11/00 MRJ Email:
This riding will prove to be a classic split of the right wing vote. I live in Markham and notice that there are quite a few PC lawn signs. If Joe Clark hadn't been doing so well the Alliance probably could have taken the seat in a close fight with the Liberals. The riding is likely one of the most affluent in the country and is predisposed to right wing ideas (tax cuts, etc.). Nevertheless, the riding does have a strong Liberal base. As a result all the Liberals need to do is run a strong candidate and hope that both the Conservatives and Alliance do so as well. If they do the Liberals will easily take the contest on a split. If Jim Jones had stayed with Joe Clark he probably would have been elected in a tight fight. By running for the Alliance he will direct a large chunk of PC support to the Alliance. He alienated alot of PC supporters who won't support him now. The lack of their support will cost him the election.

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Last Updated 25 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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