Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Peter Adams
Canadian Alliance:
Eric Mann
Progressive Conservative Party:
Darrin Langen
New Democratic Party:
Herb Wiseman
Bob Bowers
Green Party:
Tim Holland

Peter Adams

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings

Population: 107 289
Avg Household Income 43 870
Submitted Information
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18/10/00 Pundit Email:
The PC's are well organized in this riding and should be able to take it from the Liberals.
20/10/00 Kevin Lorenz Email:
The Alliance candidate is Nancy Branscombe, a town councillor and the organizer of the United Alternative. The Alliance will put substantial resources into this riding to thank Nancy for her work in securing the approval of Reform members for the creation of the Canadian Alliance.
Aside from that, the riding is traditionally conservative, and Nancy finished a strong second place there in 1997. Incumbant Peter Adams is low-profile, and has not delivered any big goodies to his riding in two terms.
25/10/00 Adam Daifallah Email:
Actually, Nancy Branscombe is not the Alliance candidate -- she was rather soundly defeated in a nomination meeting by local farmer Eric Mann on Saturday. Current MP Peter Adams is a very popular man who makes a point of appearing at all important local events. Thus, constitutients get the false impression that he is doing things for the riding when he really isn't doing anything at all. He is a very pleasant man though and knows how to work a crowd. Nevertheless, Mann's rural appeal combined with Alliance momentum and Tory plummetting should put him over the top.
26/10/00 Allan Chong Email:
Peter Adams is a very popular personality here. He is also a very nice man who I have had the pleasure of meeting and speaking with. However, he really hasn't brought a lot of things here to Peterborough other than the usual stuff that goes out to all areas. So far the liberals here have been quite civil, unlike some of the Alliance types who take cheap shots at the Conservatives. Give it a break guys and grow up! Stockwell gives good soundbites about being civil, your comments are making him sound like a hypocrite.
26/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Definatly an interesting race! Liberals won by a fair margin last time, but if Alliance momentum is building anywhere in Ontario this could be one of the spots. No prediction right now. ...except, sorry Pundit the PCs won't win.
30/10/00 Sandy Berger Email:
The above authors are just plain wrong. The riding is called Peterborough because it is Peter Adams' fife. He is, by far, the most popular and respected local politician. He is quick to fight for local investment and has been successful at getting the kind of national investment voters like: arenas, research dollars and even a Canoe museum. Looking at the numbers, Adams swept every poll in 1993 and all but 2 in 1997. His vote was more than the combined PC and Reform vote both years. There are not a lot of NDP votes to get through polarization, but Adams won by a wide margin in both the past two election. Peterborough is also the most accurate bellweather in Ontario. It is in the centre of Ontario, of average income and age, with an average urban-rural split. So long as province-wide polls show the Liberals ahead in Ontario, Adams will be reelected. To add even more evidence, in the last election the Tories ran high-profile red Tory Tom McMillan, former environment minister under Mulroney. This kept the PC vote artificially high and artificially centrist. McMillan's supporters are up for grabs as the local Tory support breaks down and the vote polarizes. Expect them to break 2 to 1 for Liberals over the Alliance, as province-wide polls show Tory voters will. And a little history - in 1990, Peter Adams was a Liberal MPP defeated by the Rae landslide. However, Adams lost by less than 300 votes, the smallest margin in the province. He will claw and beg for every vote and have his workers paranoid about getting an extra vote in every poll to make the difference in a tight race. In short, Adams will not be beaten here, barring a total collapse of the national Liberal campaign, and even then, expect his to fight to the last.
02/11/00 A.S.
Let me be a bit of a hype-buster here, though I agree that Adams is a backbench sleeper success, and while his '90 provincial loss was only one of a plethora of narrow margins, it was surprising near-resilience in a riding that had some NDP history behind it. First, it was only the *city* of Peterborough that Adams swept/nearly swept; the rural parts (especially out Havelock way) gave a fair share of polls to Reform. And McMillan had far from an "artificially high" PC vote for '97; in fact, he nearly lost his deposit. Nor is Peterborough that reliably belwetherish--it's voted PC under Liberal regimes. The Branscombe factor, if now sort of posthumous, remains immensely important--this could wind up a textbook case of the CA-filtered neo-con message penetrating, at long last and with a vengeance, classic "Middle Ontario" (Robertson Davies country, for heaven's sake!). But Adams is a tough nut to crack. If he were a Larry McCormick or John O'Reilly, maybe, he'd be more of a pushover...
07/11/00 Sean McCarthy
Part of the reason I believe Mr. Adams will win this election is due to his strong history in the riding as a community activist. He has very strong roots as a former chair of United Way, a School Board Trustee and countless other organizations. Further, as a smart politician, this man is ALWAYS campaigning. -he runs a community skating party every boxing day, he's often seen jogging through downtown Peterborough and he has a high profile (for Peterborough) fundraising dinner every spring. I've literally seem this guy walk into a coffee shop and know the names of 75% of the patrons. This is in addition to all the traditional ribbon cutting hoopla. Even in the country I've heard from people who volounteered on Peterborough's Former P.C. M.P. Bill Domm's campaigns years ago, who say they'd support Mr. Adams. It's going to be very difficult for a candidate such as Eric Mann to simply come out of the country with little more than some school board experience and a firm backing from the anti abortion etremists who won him the CA nomination. P.S., the NDP candidate's name is Herb Wiseman. He is a social worker who is very well read, and keen in the area of international politics.
17/11/00 shayne dunkley Email:
the alliance has 2500 members in peterborough. thier nomination meeting drew 1700 people. in contrast the Tories had 60 people out to the acclamation meeting for thier candidate, thier are hardly any PC signs, so there will be no right wing vote splitting. Peter Adams may be a nice guy but his days as MP are numbered.
22/11/00 Sean McCarthy
If I may, I'd like to add another comment to this particular race. The Canadian Alliance DOES NOT HAVE 2,500 members in Peterborough. Anti pro choice groups ordered a couple thousand people to buy memberships to overrun their "Grass Roots" nomination process after being instructed to do so by their leader Jim Hughes. Jim Hughes was able to bring down Nancy Branscombe but he won't be able to bring down Peter Adams.
22/11/00 S.G. Email:
Just like we should take Pundit's predictions with a grain of salt, so too should we take Sandy Berger's. It seems Sandy Berger believes that the Liberals will go 103 for 103 this election in Ontario. Sorry, Sandy, you're not being realistic. The Alliance may have run a bad campaign, but it would take a miracle for the Liberals to repeats their 1993 and 1997 Ontario landslides in this election.
26/11/00 shayne dunkley Email:
Yes, Sean the Alliance has 2500 members. It does not matter where they came from or what group they are with, if they signed a membership form they are members. Are you saying members affiliated with certain other groups are not as important as people who are not part of these groups. A member is a member. But i know Peter Adams is popular and this may be hard to overcome.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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