Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Paul Bonwick
Canadian Alliance:
George Demery
Progressive Conservative Party:
William James Dunkley
New Democratic Party:
Michael Kennedy
Victor Carvalho
Canadian Action Party:
James McGilligray

Member of Parliament:
Paul Bonwick

Previous Result:

Population: 99 584
Avg Household Income 50 898
Submitted Information
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10/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
In 1997 the Liberal candidate beat out the Reform candidate 35-34%. This riding went Reform in '93 and is expected to go Alliance next time around.
22/10/00 A.S. Email:
This might be deemed the spiritual successor to Ed Harper's sole Ontario Reform seat of '93, although only a small portion (and *not* the city of Barrie) is included. Not only was it razor-thin in '97, it was the only seat David Savitt's prediction site called for Reform in Ontario. MPP Jim Wilson holds, at 66%, the highest provincial PC vote for '99. If this don't go Alliance now, then Day is night...
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
Count on the Liberals to hold on to this one in a 3 way Lib/Pc/All race.
22/10/00 Snickerdo Email:
If there's any riding that the Alliance will win this will be it. It went Reform in 1993 (but was sabotaged by a convenient riding redistribution) and was a very close race in 97. Expect this to be an easy Alliance win.
04/11/00 DJD Email:
It's obvious that this is a tight race. Both Chretien and Day have been here in the past 3 days. Collingwood newspapers have been tied up with municipal election news and have not made much comment on federal positions other than to report the visits of the leaders.
07/11/00 thepraetor
The riding could go Liberal or Alliance. The incumbent has been a poor constituency representative, who has alienated a number of local Liberals ... many of whom are taking the election off. However, he has money and name recognition. The CA candidate is poorly known and was picked late. However, he, too, has money, but a better organization. He must fight a widespread questioning of Stockwell Day's ability. The key is the Tory candidate. Even the Liberals admit they wish he wasn't a total unknown, as they fear Conservative votes may go Alliance and tip the balance. A significant mistake by any of these national parties/leaders may decide this one.
09/11/00 Tom Merrifield Email:
I don't know the basis for your prediction that the riding of Simcoe-Grey will go to the Canadian Alliance. If it on the basis of the close results from the 1997 election, you have overlooked the fact that the seat is now held by the Liberals, so Paul Bonwick is the incumbent. More importantly, from a local perspective, Paul Bonwick has done a superb job as an MP, and has served the constituents extremely well. He deserves the continued support of the voters in the riding. I would predict that Paul will continue to grow within the Liberal Party, and no one would doubt that the Liberals will hold power. Having a strong voice for the riding on the governing side is, as they say "priceless".
17/11/00 Brad Nicpon
I don't know how it is that all of these Liberal pundits feel that their trumping of their candidates as having done "superb" jobs somehow equates to electoral victory. As I said in Haliburton-Victoria-Brock, there are very few places in Ontario where I would be confident predicting an Alliance victory, but I would do so in Simcoe-Grey. The reasoning is simple.. The Alliance is much more popular in Ontario than the Reform party was and the Reform almost won Simcoe-Grey last time... in fact they *did* win in 1993. Polls and studies suggest that overall most Alliance support is fairly solid.. they carry the same supporters each election, so it's harder for them to lose ground than it is for the Liberals who carry "soft" support. The challanege for the incumbant is not to lose any ground, and that is a near impossible task because the Alliance needs only to pick up a little bit more and Liberal voters are much more likely to change their minds or not vote at all compared to CA voters... With the Alliance support higher in Ontraio + the availability of some previous PC support I call Simcoe-Grey Alliance.
19/11/00 Tony Veltri Email:
Bill Dunkley, the PC candidate in Simcoe Grey is not a total "unknown." His campaign includes a number of influential supporters in Simcoe County - they include George McCague, and the current Warden of Simcoe County, plus other members of council throughout the riding. While the Reform's Ed Harper did win this area, it was only because the Liberals in Simcoe Centre were divided. Jean Chretien had appointed Janice Laking as the federal candidate, bypassing the traditional candidate selection process. This created animosity, and the spurned Liberal ran as an independent and took I believe, more than 1,000 votes (someone correct me if I'm wrong). Mr. Harper won by a sliver. For Paul Bonwick to slide up the middle again, he will need Mr. Dunkley to carry more votes than Shawn Mitchell did for the PCs in 1997. George Demery of the Alliance is the Party's riding association president. He is unknown in south Simcoe, where Mr. Dunkley's power base is. So his support will be more to do with Stockwell Day than anything he proposes. His base is in the north end, where issues like gun control and are more important. South Simcoe, in particular, the Alliston area carried the day for Mr. Bonwick. I believe the incumbent will be returned, only because the fight for the right will be more vicious in this riding. What would hurt Mr. Bonwick is a strong showing from NDPer Michael Kennedy. But there's nothing in the stars suggesting he will be a factor at all.
23/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
New VR - Ekos poll shows Liberal leading Alliance by 24 points.
23/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
Day is done... The latest Ekos survey shows the Liberals with 50% support, the Alliance at 26% and the PCs at 17%. Looks like Day is too scary even for Simcoe-Grey. Margin of error is 7% and undertaken between November 19-21. Full results are available at Check it out.
24/11/00 SM Email:
I wish I could say the same thin g here as I did for Oshawa, Leeds-Grenville, and Lanark-Carleton, but this riding went to the Reform party in 1993, so if the Alliance gets a seat in Ontario, WHICH I DOUBT IT WILL, this would be it. I think the Librals might get lucky here because of the PC's regaining their lost support, but other than that, this riding is too close to call, should make for a nail biter on Monday.
25/11/00 A.S.
Boy, the Alliance *did* bumble; so reluctantly, I'm withdrawing my prediction. Not that they'll be shut out or anything (though that could happen too), but they might be reduced to a few in the hinterland and in blue-collar burgs like Oshawa. If you pardon the expression, the CA'll wind up stereotyped as what they least, least, *least* wanted to be--something like Ontario's answer to the National Front. (Think of where the far-right Euro parties get their strongest base of support, and you'll understand.)
26/11/00 lrs Email:
with good economy and more of a Toronto influence( tor Star and Globe) stay Liberal not as close as next time- when CA cannot win with a head of Tory consit. they are in trouble due to bad campaign- a seat lost that should not have been- VR poll seems to point to easy victory relatively(5-10%) - if CA still gets 30 % a moral victory only and may be evidence that PC and CA have to come together

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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