Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Simcoe North

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Paul DeVillers
Canadian Alliance:
Peter Stock
Progressive Conservative Party:
Lucy Stewart
New Democratic Party:
Ann Billings
Adrian Kooger

Paul DeVillers

Previous Result:

Population: 106 630
Avg Household Income 51 480
Submitted Information
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17/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email:
My dad lives in Simcoe North and he says that everyone there votes Liberal (And he hates the Liberals so I think he's unbiased with this)
23/10/00 Tobias Email:
If Peter Stock is the Alliance candidate then you can expect him to do well. He knows how to campaign and really knows the issues. The riding re-distribution last time around screwed Reform over. The Liberals may be in trouble here
23/10/00 Mr. Mischief Email:
Lets' seee.....which riding shall I pick on today.....OH, HERE'S ONE! SIMCOE NORTH! This is the town where Pressed-to-win Manning had his only victory in 1993 (Simcoe Centre) and where his party came very close to winning each of the ridings. Very conservative territory. Whatever score the Alliance gets nationally, it should be at least a bit higher than 1993's 20%, so I would be shocked if they didn't win the Simcoe ridings. (but then...nothing surprises me about people from Ontario anymore.)
03/11/00 A.S.
Ah, these adolescent libertarian conservatives scampering all over the 'net;-)...if everyone around you votes Liberal, then you must live around Midland-Penetang; they've *always* voted Liberal. But t/w Orillia it becomes deep blue Leacock Tory country, increasingly inclined t/w Alliance green (and it even stayed provincially PC thru the Larry Grossman disaster). PC minister Doug Lewis was a Reform supertarget in '93, but DeVillers overtook both. Even Lewis has tippytoed with CA lately, though he may have pulled back t/w neutrality. It was rumoured that disgraced ex-provincial speaker Al McLean might gain the Alliance nomination, but it wound up going again to '97 Reformer Peter Stock, whose CFAC activity places him in Alliance's "Randy Tate Republican" wing. Re the knowing-how-to-campaign part, be mindful that the Reform % dropped and Liberal % rose btw/93 & '97. He ain't no Leacock, that's for sure.
05/11/00 Mr. Mischief Email:
I've changed my mind. I can't overcome the powerful logic of calling everyone you happen to dissagree with "adolescent" (even people in their 30s), so I'll side with A.S.S. and call this one for the Liberals. But come the 27th., I'll VOTE strategically for whoever (N.D.P., Alliance, whoever) has the best chance of kicking the arrogant thugs out. ;-}
07/11/00 B. Keith Vincent Email:
In Simcoe North the Canadian Alliance has received a very strong welcome, especially in Orillia. If you just ride around town, most home displaying signs are displaying Peter Stock signs. The Alliance has strong support for its policies on family, taxes, abortion and gun control here in this fairly semi-rural Ontario area.
12/11/00 A.S.
Funny how Mr. Mischief did me one better by giving a Liberal prediction, when I actually gave no prediction at all;-) That is, I really *am* allowing this as a possible Stock'n'Stock chance to knock Chretien's smile to the other side of his face...or not. If there's a 20 or 15, maybe even 10 most likely Ontario Alliance pickup list out there, this'd be up there--and en route to CA it'd cleanly pole-vault over the Midland-Penetang Gritdom much as Erie-Lincoln (another top 20-15-maybe-10er) would pole-vault over Port Colborne Gritdom. So, don't get yer anger at arrogant thugs of whatever stripe get in the way of yer predictin';-)
19/11/00 Sean
This one will be close, but Peter Stock will win it. Having lived there for many years, I know the lay of the land. This is really conservative territory - the Liberal didn't so much win this riding last time, as the Reformer lost it due to Reform/PC vote splitting (There was still strong support for local incumbent PC MP. Doug Lewis, last time, whereas this time Ontario support for the PCs has collapsed & shifted in the conservative ridings at least over to the new Cdn Alliance. Example is that in conservative Barrie, the PC nomination meeting was attended by 6 PCs at a sandwich shop & their acclaimed candidate still needs 100 signatures to be leigible to run & the Alliance nomination had 3 closely matched candidates vying for nomination at a standing room only meeting attended by 1000 [journalists estimates, not mine] of the riding association's 1500 members. This is hapening all over Ontario.). Lewis is gone now, the PC candidate is an unknown, & the incumbent ! Liberal won by default (although the PM has in the past made a point of giving this incumbent some priveleges usually reserved only for cabinet ministers, no doubt as reward for taking the Simcoe North jewel from the PC's crown). Peter Stock, on the other hand, is locally well known, which is crucial in small town Ontario, & quite adept at understanding what people want & at campaigning. Close race, but this is conservative country at heart & Ontarians know voting PC is just flogging a dead horse.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
will be interesting if vote splitting is still here- this riding should not be Liberal of course Libs moved right of centre( tax cuts) if CA vote again over 30 %- moral victory
26/11/00 Dee Email:
Lets get those Liberals out of there. They've been at it for nothing for too long. It's already been 7 years bad luck!

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Last Updated 26 Novemer 2000

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