Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
St. Catharines

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Walt Lastewka
Canadian Alliance:
Randy Taylor
Progressive Conservative Party:
Ken Atkinson
New Democratic Party:
John Bacher
Tilly Bylsma
Marxist-Leninist Party:
Elaine Couto
Natural Law Party:
Jim Morris

Walt Lastewka

Previous Result:

Population: 105 299
Avg Household Income 44 130
Submitted Information
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15/10/00 JJG Email:
One the candidates seeking the Alliance nomination is the popular radio talk-show host Randy Taylor (formerly from CKTB in Niagara, currently from CFRB in Toronto). St. Catharines came close to voting Reform in the previous election. With Taylor as the candidate, watch for the Alliance to take this riding in a cake walk.
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
This one should return Tory by voting day. Count on the dirt that the Liberals will throw at Stockwell Day to stick with the voters of this riding.
22/10/00 Snickerdo Email:
There seems to be a strong backlash against the Federal Liberals here (just pick up a copy of the St. Catharines Standard - everything from blasting the current government right on down to Pierre Trudeau). In the 1997 election Rob Hesp (then the Reform candidate) was ahead in the polls by a nice margin up until a week before the election, and St. Catharines was still third in Ontario when it came to percentage of voters of voted Reform. If the Canadian Alliance candidate plays his cards right he should have a fairly easy time winning this seat.
23/10/00 Snickerdo Email:
Take what Pundit says with a grain of salt. He's/She's posting in all of the split Liberal/Alliance riding boards in and saying that the PCs will take the riding with no backing other then 'It's the Alliance' or other stuff along those lines. That is definitely not the case. He/she should check the 97 election results first before posting senseless messages like this. The PCs are definitely the weaker of the two right parties and are in no condition to take votes from an even stronger Canadian Alliance in these ridings.
25/10/00 Snickerdo Email:
What I neglected to bring up in my first comment is that St. Catharines is very conservative (more then just in the political sense of the word) and 'moral' as a whole. There's also a large population of senior citizens and people who despise bill C-68. While the Alliance platform might scare people in other parts of Ontario, the fact that Stockwell Day is an evangelical Christian and other such factors as well as the myths that aren't true about the party should play a _positive_ effect in the campaign here and eventually lead to an Alliance win. I predict that in the end the Alliance will siphon support from both the Tories and the Liberals. The Niagara Region also tends to elect based on candidate and not party (just look at Jim Bradly and Peter Kormos, two great MPPs who serve different parts of St. Catharines). If Randy Taylor wins the Alliance nomination then you've also got a candidate the city will embrace. We'll have to wait and see whether or not the Tories and Liberals can pull off something similar. And although not in St. Catharines entirely, there have been several road fatalities involving drunk and hit-and-run drivers over the last week. The latest one involved a Young Offender in Niagara Falls being chased by police and then ended up crashing and killing a 34-year old mother in another vehicle. I also seriously doubt anyone will forget the two 13 year olds killed in Chippawa by a drunk hit-and-runner any time soon. Now if that doesn't give the Alliance candidates some ammunition then I don't know what will.
26/10/00 Christopher J. Currie EMAIL:
This is a safe Liberal riding Provincially. For that reason alone, I'm inclined to think that the Grits can't possibly lose it Federally.
30/10/00 Snickerdo
To respond to Christopher J. Currie, the reason this is a safe seat provincially is because of Jim Bradly, the best MPP any riding in Ontario (and probably all of Canada) could ask for. He's been elected because of his service to the community and his representation of St. Catharines in Toronto, not because of the party he represents. The moment he steps down is the moment St. Catharines sends a Tory MPP to Toronto. Niagara Centre is the same, they have an excellent MPP who's NDP. That doesn't mean Niagara Centre will be sending an NDP MP to Ottawa anytime soon. It's also now official, Randy Taylor is now the Alliance candidate for St. Catharines. He blew the other two Alliance hopefuls out of the water.
31/10/00 Christopher J. Currie
I'll grant that Bradley's popularity may not carry over to Lestewka on a personal level. But, all the same, St. Catharine's is a pretty urbane area as Niagara-region seats go -- which is not good news for Day. The Alliance candidate might get around 30% of the vote, maybe even more, but the Liberals will still hold the seat when all's said and done.
01/11/00 MVW Email:
Pundit doesn't seem to have a clue. The Tories were a nonfactor here in 97. Randy Taylor is a star candidate for the alliance and is supported by the popular local provincial Cabinet Minister, Tim Hudak. Walt Lastewka has done less than most had hoped. Alliance will win this one in a close race.
03/11/00 A.S.
Ah, Randy Taylor; I always felt CCRAP had the mook'n'mullethead vote sewn up;-) It's an interesting riding in that, due to Bradley, it's solider for the provincial than for the federal Grits; but it's also where FCP and CoR combined surpassed 10% in 1990--this, plus the credible '93 and even more credible '97 Rob Hesp bids, shows that "pretty urbane" might not be urbane *enough*. And remember, too, what helped to motivate Hesp: this is Paul'n'Karla's riding. And if the Alliance wants to turn hoosegow party girl Karla Homolka into a Willie Horton of the North, well, this is the place where it'll resonate...
03/11/00 Snickerdo
Doesn't look like a PC candidate has even been nominated yet for St. Catharines! (Or is nowhere to be found). This keeps getting more and more interesting every day, and if St. Catharines is in fact one of the few ridings in Ontario where they can't get any Tory support AT ALL then it'll be interesting to see how the former Tory supporters vote for - Liberal or Alliance? Also to respond to Christopher again, the last provincial election was one of Jim Bradley's closest elections yet. The only reason he probably won was because the Tory Tom Frose, though the incumbent for St. Catharines-Brock, wasn't from the new riding of St. Catharines and in actuality was from Niagara-on-the-Lake and the newly formed riding of Niagara Falls. Tom Frose was also the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Education, and his constituency office was the target of numerous high-scale protests by people from all over Ontario during the Bill 160 crap (I still live less then a block away from the office was located. It was very annoying to have people from all over the place parking on my lawn and not being able to get out of my driveway!) The results for the riding were also swinging throughout the evening, showing Frose ahead numerous times. Provincially St. Catharines will vote Liberal for as long as Jim Bradley is representing this riding. Other then that St. Catharines is a conservitive city as a whole, and to top it off it has the Karla Homolka and Paul Bernardo baggage that the Alliance candidate will be able to run with. The only way the Alliance is not going to win this seat is if they -seriously- screw something up during their campaign.
03/11/00 Brad Nicpon
Ok, I have been holding off posting anything for St. Catharines yet just to see the ways things are going in Ontario.. and generally they seem to be favouring the Alliance. While the Liberals will most certainly win the bulk of Ontario seats there are a few that could possibly go CA, and St. Catharines is definately one of them. Last time the Reform Party had a solid base of support, and considering that the Ca's popularity has been at least 10 to 12 points higher in Ontario so far this election campaign compared to the '97 results this is one of the ridings where that gain in ground will likely show. So far I have not even heard of a PC Candidate being nominated here, and even if one did arise it's clear that the battle really is between Liberals and CAs here, making the PCs a nonfactor. (So, Pundit, once again you have predicted something that is nothing more than wishful thinking) At the least for the time being I see this riding as equally likely to go either Liberal or Alliance.
04/11/00 A.S. Email:adma@interlog,com
Actually, Jim Bradley had 54% to Tom Froese's 38.5%--hardly "close", and the results would only have been swinging through the evening had the polls around Port Dalhousie, the lake and the Henley course were counted first. In fact, Bradley's 1995 margin was half that (and the PC opponent did marginally better than Froese!), and his 1990 margin was only 3 points ahead of the *NDP* (remember, it was 1990). In both cases he was running against the anti-Liberal provincial tide; but there was no such tide in '99 for most Liberal incumbents--even in incumbent battles, as here, they tended to rack up safe double-digit margins. So, getting back to the Feds, if you understate Bradley's margin, you might also be overstating Lastewka's chances of getting La-stewed (not that he *won't* be, I'll allow that much)
06/11/00 Snickerdo
Really, I never remembered it being that far apart, but I'm not surprised. Still, ask anyone in St. Catharines why they vote Liberal provincially and the first thing they'll say is Jim Bradley. He's like a local hero :) Ask anyone who the federal MP is and I guarantee only people like me who follow politics would be able to answer. In fact, out of the seven years Walt Lastewka has been our MP I can't even remember hearing him address parliament ONCE! Whereas with Jim Bradley, he's not only bantering on in parliament every day but he's also on the news, on the radio, etc etc. :) Jim Bradley is the kind of candidate that makes even provincial Tories like me vote for him simply because of who he is. Walt hasn't even done so much as come within a hair of doing for St. Catharines what Jim Bradley has.
17/11/00 Snickerdo
Wow, a federal leader planning on visiting St. Catharines -twice- during the campaign! That means two things - they know they have a good chance at this seat, and they WANT to win it at all costs. Stockwell Day along with Randy Taylor will be at the Ramada Inn (on Ontario Street) from 5PM-7PM on November 23rd for a free BBQ. I'm sure it will be an "All Eyes on St. Catharines" event. Randy Taylor's full fledged support for private health care in an interview with the Standard (it's not what I would call two-tier, since private clinics already exists today and are rampant throughout the Niagara Region, they're just covered by insurance like the ER and everyone gets to use them as long as they have a Health Card) might hurt his campaign though unless he agressivly moves on the Justice issue, and makes it be known that an Alliance Government wouldn't let Karla Homolka party down while in Prison.
22/11/00 S.G. Email:
I agree with all of you in your interpretation of Pundit's predictions. I don't think he's predicted ANY wins for the Alliance in Ontario this election. If I didn't know better I'd think he was working for the Liberal party and is trying his best to prop up the Tories so as to do his own little part to continue the right-wing vote split. I think St. Catherines will go Alliance on election day.
23/11/00 A.S.
Still can't say about Alliance vs Liberal. But re Pundit's milquetoasty PC stumping, it'll be interesting to just *see* how they do here, considering that their candidate's the the MP whom Lastewka trounced in '93. Win, no; Ken Atkinson ain't even no Heward Grafftey--but what a fossilized mouse to potentially trip up a primo CA mook...
24/11/00 Snickerdo
Agreed. I honestly don't expect the PCs to do much better then the NDP, and I think they'll both finish in the 2-7% range. What does bother me though is whether or not the webmaster of this site is constructing his options based on bias or not, considering he's a member of the Liberal party. He's removed all Liberal/CA tossups and put them into the Liberal category. I'd love to know what polls he's tracking, many of them are saying that the Alliance is ahead in ridings like this. Anyway, Stockwell Day was in St. Catharines on Thursday and the largest crowd for the Alliance out of the entire campaign was there. A friend of mine attended and I can say for sure that they didn't bring bus loads of kids from local highschools :)
Editor's Note: Okey, this is the seventh time you post for this riding. For the repeatition reason alone I should disregard any of your submission for any riding. Don't like my prediction? You can go set up your own site or go somewhere else!
24/11/00 JJG
I agree with Snickerdo. What's the point of submitting a prediction if the webmaster is just going to make his own prediction. Anyway, Randy Taylor Dumont is a shoe in. The pundits are saying it, the polls are saying it. There were almost 2000 people at a rally in St. Catharines on Thursday. It was amazing. St. Catharines will be just one riding of a Niagara sweep for the Alliance.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
short election time helps Libs- too urban to go CA- but CA will get 30% or more a moral victory- if PC vote at 10-15% then evidence of PC collapse on Ont- any Pc rise for a vote over 15% will mean that note splitting is here to stay

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

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