Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Timmins-James Bay

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Réginald Bélair
Canadian Alliance:
James Gibb
Progressive Conservative Party:
Daniel Clark
New Democratic Party:
Len Wood

Reginald Belair

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:
Kenora-Rainy River
Nickel Belt
Thunder Bay-Superior North

Population: 78 414
Avg Household Income 45 067
Submitted Information
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19/10/00 D. Kirby Email:
This riding has a popular NDP MPP. The Federal NDP is very organized for the upcoming vote in this riding. It might be close but is a distinct possibility for a NDP win.
19/10/00 EP Email:
Gilles Brisson is probably the least well known NDP MPP. To base your prediction purely on the fact that the riding is NDP provincially seems to be a bit weak. Réginald Bélair won the seat with 50% of the votes, and have brought quite a bit of goodies home. Should be pretty safe.
21/10/00 D. Kirby Email:
Brisson popular in his riding where it counts. The NDP candidate in this riding is a former MPP for the riding who didn't run following the re-drawing of the Ontario ridings prior to the last ON prov. election. He has a good opportunity to win.
Editor's Note: Len Wood did ran in the last election, in Timiskaming-Cochrane, and was defeated by Liberal David Ramsey
21/10/00 Jonathan Whatley Email:
EP is wildly off base. Sorry, Gilles Bisson is very well known to the TJB voters who re-elected him under NDP colours *by an absolute majority* in a very tough election for the party just over a year ago. Len Wood, his popular benchmate whose Cochrane North provincial riding was redistributed away, is back, with huge central office and volunteer support.
22/10/00 EP Email:
If Len Wood is so popular, why did he lost to a turncoat?
23/10/00 A. Email:
Yes but remember that Len Wood (the NDP candidate this time) is the former NDP MPP for the northern part of the riding, where he was elected with large majorities twice. Although he didn't do that well in the last election, it was because his old riding disappeared with redistribution and he had to run in almost completely unfamiliar territory (Timiskaming-Cochrane). If the Alliance can take away votes from the Liberals on the right, Wood has a decent shot.
23/10/00 Jonathan Whatley Email:
Because he ran in a completely different riding, with a veteran incumbent, a modest NDP organization and, at least in that election, a different policial dynamic. Compare the 1999 Tory votes in TJB and TC, for starters.
23/10/00 Initial Email:
Turncoat, my foot--Ramsay fits Timiskaming like an comfy old shoe, Cochrane wasn't even the best part of Wood's old riding, strategy favoured the Grits in incumbent battles, bla bla. Bisson had the only NDP majority in *both* 1995 *and* 1999; the only reasons for "obscurity" is geography, his lack of a prominent Rae ministerial position, post-95 NDP marginalization, etc. This is a *big* *big* NDP target, one of the top ones; indeed, as in Trinity-Spadina, the '97 energy-sapping battle royal between Belair and ex-MP Cid Samson squeezed the PC-Ref candidates into single-digit marginal irrelevance. Not only is this much more congenial to Len Wood than T-C, but he brings strength to places (Kapuskasing et al) where NDP was weak in '97. Trivia: it's a rematch--in his first fed race in '88, Belair marginally bested pre-MPP Wood!
25/10/00 Neil Jamieson Email:
I was surprised that Réginald Bélair got the majority of votes in the 1997 election in Timmins-James Bay while facing a very popular and well know NDP canadidate, Cid Samson. Mr. Bélair did better than expected in Timmins and I believe he will win again with about half of the votes cast. More comments to follow from me!
02/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
The NDP would have a chance at this seat if they ran a strong candidate, but Len Wood isn't one. He represented Cochrane North provincially for two terms, I grant, but he was a political lightweight (his Question Period appearances were painful to watch). There's a reason why Gilles Bisson was given the "safe" riding after redistribution in 1999, leaving Wood to fail miserably in Timiskaming -- and it's the same reason why Wood will fail again in 2000.
05/11/00 Neil Jamieson
It looks like there will not be much of a challenge for Rég Bélair this time. The NDP's strongest areas of support (especially South Porcupine and Porcupine are looking more Liberal than ever. Most people in Timmins now know Mr. Bélair (who is from Kap) and seem to really like and respect him. Len Wood is also from Kapuskasing and is not as well known in Timmins. I cannot comment on the Northern part of this riding because I live in Timmins. In 1997 Kapuskasing, Hearst and Smooth Rock Falls voted overwelmingly Liberal and I'm guessing the same will happen this time. I bet Bélair will get over 50% of the votes. Why is Timmins-James Bay shown as a toss-up between the Liberals and NDP? Sure the NDP has amazingly strong support at the provincial level but not at the federal level! This is a pretty safe Liberal seat!
06/11/00 Neil Jamieson
Just to add to my last comment: I was in Kapuskasing this weekend and noticed that Mr. Bélair has an amazing number of lawn signs in people's yards. There are also many many supports in many of the smaller towns like Fauquier, Moonbeam and Smooth Rock Falls. His support in Timmins is also growing rapidly. Just for the fun of it, I'm predicting that he will get about 62% of the votes cast in my riding!
09/11/00 Tom Parkin Email:
Hey moderator -- you've made a real mistake in calling this one for the Liberals. Len Wood has high name recognition and in a one-on-one poll with names included, it's tight -- and this campaign has really only just started. And contrary to what the Liberals in this thread are saying, I'm hearing that Timmins has been painted orange. With a scent of blood in the water, the New Democrats are going to get rounding up their formidable nothern Ontario team and launch the big push. Watch out!
12/11/00 Neil Jamieson
Who are you Tom Parkin? Do you live in Northern Ontario? To tell you the truth, since I actually live in Timmins....there are not nearly as many NDP lawn/window signs as previous federal or provincial elections. Last time the NDP candidate (Cid Samson) had about 10 times as many signs as Reg Bélair yet Reg the Liberal candidate won with over 50% of the votes! Yes the NDP is quite popular here as compared to much of Canada but the Liberals at the federal level are currently much more liked. Mr. Parkin, where or from whom did you hear that Timmins has been painted orange???
13/11/00 Jonathan Whatley
How about Alexa's tour itinerary, from - > WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 15 > TORONTO/ TIMMINS/ SAULT STE. MARIE "Hey, in the middle of touring the absolute best-shot ridings in Ontario, let's go way out of our way to the relatively remote and small, most northerly city in the province to waste our leader on this Liberal lock!" Of course not. Milton had the right idea before! Timmins-James Bay has one of the best NDP chances in Ontario.
19/11/00 Delroy Email:
Why do people think that having a MPP of any stripe can or should effect the outcome of a Federal Campaign? In Ontario there is little or no correlation between the two,Harris wins back to back Tory majority governments and the Liberals almost sweep the province federally. Len Wood was a lightweight at Queens Park, a very poor performer in the Legislature,relegated to running in Temisk-Cochrane against Ramsey and was trounced. Reg Belair got over 50% of the vote last time and I suggest he will do the same again.
21/11/00 TE. Landry Email:
I disagree with your prediction: this one may go NDP this time. Bisson and Wood are the hardest working politicians in Ontario - both are excellent campaigners and canvass well together. Bisson won this ridding provincially in 1999 - easily crushing Liberal Yves Malette. Thus, the NDP machine is well oiled and will give current MP Reg Belair a run for his money. Except in the city of Hearst, where the Liberal vote is rock solid, the rest of the ridding is definitely up for grab. If Wood can neutralize Belair in Timmins, he could win this one. One little note for Neil: Let me assure you that you don't win election by putting up election signs, you win elections by getting your vote to the polls. That's why Yves Malette lost - his team never managed to get his supporters to the polls. Having seen Belair's organization, I think he could face a similar problem in 2000.
23/11/00 Neil Jamieson
I still can't believe that anybody would believe that Len Wood (NDP) will win this riding????? I agree that window/lawn signs are poor indicators of the actual outcome in many elections. One reason is because in 1997, Cid Samson had about 5 times as many signs as Reg Bélair in Timmins but just look at the voting results!!! At this moment this is a safe riding for Gilles Bisson (NDP) provincially and is equally so federally for Bélair (Lib). Just for the fun of it I'll take another (kind of) guess at the outcome.... Bélair: 50-57%, Wood: 25-37%, Gibb: 7-15%, Clark: 2-6% I agree that the NDP has many strong supporters in T-JB but most people here want to send a Liberal to Ottawa.
23/11/00 Tom Parkin Email:
Our Liberal friend appears to acknowledge that the NDP is winning the sign war. Glad to hear it. Internal party polling shows that Len is in striking distance and has flown in out most senior organizer -- the same person who ran Gilles Bisson's successful 1999 and 1995 campaigns -- to make the final push. Every Tory and Alliance support needs to vote strategically in Timmins-James Bay if they want to send a message to Chretien!
24/11/00 Neil Jamieson
I wonder where some of you people live??? It seems like many of you know very little about Timmins-James Bay. Tom Parkin, what is this "internal" polling you are referring to? Any polls I have heard about in my riding have put Bélair way ahead but I don't usually believe in these local or internal polls. Now I do agree that the NDP is strong in this riding but much more so provincially. I know and live in this riding and I know where there is heavy Liberal support and heavy NDP support at the federal level. Please do not compare the provincial results to federal support!! One thing that made me laugh out loud was that Tom Parking thought we actually had PC and Alliance support here! Well not much at all! With a riding where there are more francophones than anglophones and a high percentage of First Nations people....well you know Stockwell Day is not very popular.
Here is where I expect Reg Bélair to get strong support: Timmins (city center), Mountjoy, Hearst, Kapuskasing, Smooth Rock Falls
Here is where Len Wood will likely get strong support: South Porcupine, Porcupine, Moosonee (Basically all of the James Bay coast and Hudson Bay to the Winisk River)
All of the other communities, I really am not sure.

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Last Updated 24 November 2000

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