Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
York North

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Karen Kraft Sloan
Canadian Alliance:
Bob Yaciuk
Progressive Conservative Party:
Joseph Wamback
New Democratic Party:
Ian Scott
Ian Knight

Karen Kraft Sloan

Previous Result:

Population: 99 511
Avg Household Income 61 362
Submitted Information
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09/10/00 Matt Email:
Karen Kraft-Sloan will have a challenge against PC Canadate Joe Walback. Wamback has been one of the biggest names in the media over the past year or so. In June 1999, their son, Jonathan, suffered brain damage when he was savagely beaten near his Newmarket home. He spent 11 months in hospital, three of them in a coma. The accused were later released that day on bail. He has been slamming the liberals on their stance on Justice ever since and will take votes from every party. A close race, but Wamback will be the new MP from York North! A very good avocate for Justice in Canada!
11/10/00 L.O. Email:
There are few candidates in this general election that will have already canvassed most of the voters in their riding. Wamback has done that for his petition to change the Young Offenders act. He is known throughout Canada. He is probably really well-known and supported in his riding. This doesn't mean it will be a cake-walk. The Liberals did well here last time. There is also a possibility of either Liberals splitting with Tories to allow an alliance win or Tories splitting with Alliance to allow another Liberal win. PC gain. close race, but probably one of their best chances in Ontario.
12/10/00 Don MakAskill Email:
Joe Wamback has a lot of backers. This will be a fight between him and the Liberal incumbant. But the papers seem to show that Wamback has a very good shot here. If he has any kind of a campaign team - he has a very good chance based on the justice issues...If not him, then Liberal win...but I think it's tory gain.
12/10/00 Michael O'Brien Email:
Article Is very positive for Wamback. The Liberal won't be blown away or anything. It will be close. But it is a 2 way race. Not likely that NDP or Alliance candidates will get more than 15% each.
14/10/00 Michael Cooper Email:
Joe Womback will have a difficult time defeating incumbent Karen Kraft-Sloan because of the dismal state of his own Party. The Alliance will have a reasonable presense causing the right-wing vote to split down the middle enabling Kraft-Sloan to win by default.
13/10/00 Richard Email:
I wish there was a too close prediction because that is what I would pick. The Tories have a star candidate. Even with the tories being very very weak, they should do well in North York. On the other hand, I know quite a few people in the riding and they are all liberals. That being said, they think that this Wamback has a good chance at outseating Kraft Sloan, but they have a general feeling that the incumbent might benefit from the government's popularity. It is a toss up with neither the tories or the liberals with a clear advantage at this point.
15/10/00 A.S. Email:
If Wamback were Alliance, he'd be a natural--the Chuck Cadman of the East--in this, the traditional 905 starting point for Mike Harris' provincial campaigns. As it is, given the party he's chosen, there's no guarantee he'll even surface above third, sad to say. (And remember, too, that similar credentials couldn't save Priscilla DeVilliers from annihilation in the recent provincial by-election...)
17/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
The star candidate the Conservatives have here has had enough national media exposure in the past that he'll likely be able to upset the York North Liberal apple cart on Nov. 27th.
17/10/00 Paul Kasman Email:
Wamback is a very convincing man and a very challenging contender. Look for a BIG PC victory, as he will steal votes from all the parties especially the Libs and CA.
17/10/00 EP Email:
Consider the Tories did not even come in second last time, all these outpour of PC victory prediction seems rather baseless. The Tories tried the "National Superstar" strategy in the past (Hello General Lewis McKenzie!) and did not seems to work. Karen Kraft Sloan is obviously not front and centre in the national media, but she gain notable amount of coverage for her stand (and voting against party line) on environmental issues. She is certainly not a "no-name backbencher"
17/10/00 Drew Ostash Email:
I see the PC Party winning here, because the people are sick and tired of the Liberals sitting back and doing nothing for the rights of Canadians, and especially in this riding the tories wil do this. Joe Clark and other Conservatives are very well respected here.
18/10/00 Adam Daifallah Email:
Joe Wamback is a high-profile candidate, but the fact that he is using his son's plight to win him votes is not going to work. It worked for Chuck Cadman because his child was killed -- in this case, Jonathan Wamback is still alive. The voters of York North might feel that it is a bit crass and cold for him to run for office with a son in the condition Jonathan is in. In fact, there have been letters to the editor about this.
Karen Kraft-Sloan will be re-elected here beause the Alliance is stronger in Ontario now, causing a major split with Wamback.
18/10/00 Email:
Kraft-Sloan is safe here. The introduction of Wamback onto the scene does make things interesting. However, the strategic tactic of running on the back of your neighbour's sympathies didn't work for the provincial Tory candidate Priscilla Divilliers in ADFA (2000 Ontario by-election) and it certainly will not work here.
In addition, with a decent leaning to the right of the spectrum in York North, the popularity of the CA and any support that Mr. Wamback does receive (further factoring in the presumed and inevitable decimation of the federal Tories this time around) will easily cancel each other out allowing Kraft-Sloan to win with a low percentage of the vote granted, but enough to retain the title of MP.
18/10/00 J Smith Email:
Wamback isn't likely to lose this here. Wamback is man that is likely to get votes not only from the Alliance, but also from the Liberals. If the Conservatives win only one Ontario seat in the next election, York North will probably be it.
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
This is one of the PC's star candidates in this election. He has had enough national media exposure just in the last 3 months that he'll be able to not only win York North from the Liberals on Nov. 27th but also lift the results for the PC's in surrounding ridings.
23/10/00 A. Email:
Let's not forget that the Tories couldn't even come close in this riding, despite the fact that they were running the Mayor of Newmarket (who was also the former MP), and Charest visited the area multiple times. Wamback may have a high profile, but it's not for doing anything that would make him a good candidate or less still, a good MP. If the Alliance runs a strong candidate here they might do well (might even win), but otherwise this one's going Liberal again.
23/10/00 Snickerdo Email:
The Wamback's are a household name. I think the PCs will walk away with this riding. I don't, however, think that a PC win here (or Joe Wamback's 'Name' for that matter) will do anything more for the PCs in the surrounding ridings then Jim Jones did back in 1997.
25/10/00 Email:
The Tories are running fourth in the old city of North York (Ipsos-Reid), so unless all of 'em live here ...
Editor's Note: The riding of York North does not contain the city of North York. North York is cover by ridings such as York West, York Centre, Don Valley East/West, Willowdale...
30/10/00 Mitch
This will probably be another Liberal riding that will benefit from a split from the Tory/Alliance vote. Mr. Womback, even though he has the credentials of being a "star" candidate, will probably be dragged down by the PC's lack of momentum in Ontario. Ultimately, whether he comes 2nd or 3rd is more a question of the Tories' overall fortunes than to his effectiveness as a campaigner. Bob Yacuik, the Alliance candidate would need a collapse of Tory support to have a chance of winning, but Alliance momentum so far in Ontario makes him a more likely to place at the moment than Womback.
02/11/00 LRS Email:
Why would this seat go Tory- Libs sweep Ontario-Decima poll only if liberals losing momentum would this seat go- and then you would havea splt alliance -Tory vote unless something changes fast- Liberals will win by 15-20% in this riding
16/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
There are signs that the wheels are coming off the Liberal campaign here ... reports that Kraft-Sloan walked out of a candidates debate to cries of "Shame" after she changed her mind about agreeing to the format.
16/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
I watched Joe Wambeck on Newsworld this afternoon. He came across like an angry middle-aged white man with a burning vendetta. I bet he is even worse on the doorsteps. Not exactly a well-rounded candidate with a broad platform. In addition, the latest COMPAS poll of the '905' region, the Liberals were at 62% (!) and the PCs at 9%. This isn't a good area for Tories named Joe.
17/11/00 shayne dunkley Email:
The fact that the PCs are running wamback in this riding means nothing. Last election the PC's not only ran a former member of parliment but also the mayor of Newmarket. John Cole had as much if not more name recognition in York North as Waback has. The PCs placed behind the Reform party in both the 1993 election and the 1997 election. In 1997 the Reform party ran a very weak local candidate but still got more votes than the mayor and former MP. Also name recogntion is only good if the recogntion is a positive one. Recently the reports in the local news as well as the Toronto papers have explained some of the events sorounding Wambacks sons beating and they have not been favourable. From all election studies i have read, a good local candidate will bring in at the most 5% of the vote, because of course most people vote for the party not the person. Considering the PC's had 19% of the popular vote last election and the local candidate got 22% of the vote, I would predict that now with the PC's at around 10% in the polls that Wamback will get between 15-20% of the vote. I am assured that Wamback will not win the riding, the only question is if he will take enough votes from the Alliance to allow the Liberals to win. In 1997 with a weak candidate Reform got 26% of the vote with Reform recieving 19% of the popular vote. My prediction is Liberals 38%, Alliance 38%, PC's 18% and the ndp and other fringe parties taking the remaining 6%.
on another interesting note, Karen kraft Sloan the Liberal incumbent is under pressure after refusing to participate in the all candidates debate. She claimed the format was not fair, yet she participated in the previous 2 debates in 93 and 97 and the format was the same. After explaining that she would not participate, she drove to a Paul Martin rally, where local press were waiting. The debate was sponsored by the local paper and as you can imagine todays paper was bad news for the Liberals.
Also, i phoned 100 people tonight canvassing out of those 100 people 15 were supporting the Alliance, 14 were supporting another party and the rest were undecided or not saying.
I find it funny that people that do not know or live in this riding can make predictions. Sure you may know Wambacks name but it doesnt matter in this riding. Like someone else said the great Lewis Mackenzie ran for the PC's and lost easily. If Wamback wasnt running in this riding the Alliance would win for sure, but now with him running there is the possibility of a split, the Liberals may win, but they will do so with less than 40% of the vote. i'll keep you updated.
17/11/00 ed valk Email:
Out of 100, 15 told you they'd vote Alliance, 14 told you they were voting for someone else, and the rest were undecided or wouldn't say. That is not good. Your voters will tell you. Those voting for someone else do not want to hurt your feelings or get into an argument with you.
19/11/00 MH Email:
Even a star candidate with a grievance against the justice system (whether justified or not is impossible for most of us to assess) is unlikely to overcome a strong regional trend. As well, the PCs and CA will be splitting thr well-right-of-centre vote between them. In this as in a number of constituencies, the Libs are more than right-wing enough. Besides, their candidates have the advantage of incumbency. Should go Liberal by several thousand votes.
22/11/00 Email:
this riding will probably go Liberal again, but only because of the right wing split. Whoever wins will win with less than 40% of the vote. Most of us dont want Karen Kraft Sloan in Ottawa but we just cant agree on a way to get rid of her.
23/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
The Liberals have 60% support in York North in an Ekos survey from November 19-21. Alliance follows with 26% and PCs have 10%. Margin of error is 12%. Looks like the Liberals can count on anther 3.5 years in Ottawa.
23/11/00 Mike Wakefield Email:
New VR - Ekos poll show the Alliance 34 points back of the Liberals, with the Tories a very distant third.
26/11/00 shayne dunkley Email:
i honestly doubt that the Liberals are going to get 60% of the vote here in York North. The VR poll i have no faith in for a couple of reasons, first it was done with the Toronto Star. VR is broadcasting live from the Alliance headquarters on election night, why do they want to broadcast from a losing office? As much as i do not like Joe Wamback, he will get more than 10% of the vote. I predict in the low 20's anyways. If Wamback only got 10% of the vote the Alliance would win this riding easily. The Alliance has some hope here because the PC's are actually splitting the vote with the Liberals more than they are with the Alliance. The suggestion the Liberals will win by more than 30% is crazy, the suggestion the Liberals will get 60% of the vote here is also crazy. No Liberal will ever get 60% of the vote in this riding. Final prediction: Liberals 36%, Alliance 33%, PC's 24%, others 7%. although i hope i am wrong, i know i will be closer than the people predicting a 60 % vote for the Liberals.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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