Canadian Federal Election Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Hon Lawrence MacAulay
Canadian Alliance:
Darrell Hickox
Progressive Conservative Party:
Kevyn J.MacAdam
New Democratic Party:
Deborah Kelly Hawkes

Hon Lawrence MacAulay

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: ?
Avg Household Income ?
Language (Home)
English ?
French ?
Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Matt Email:
Cardigan is home to the Solicitor General Lawrence MacAulay who just narrowly won his seat in 1997 by less than 100 to the PC Candidate. This time around, MacAulay is in for the fight of his Political Career. Kevin MacAdam who resigned his Cabinet Position today is testing the waters in federal politics. MacAdam who is only 33 years old was elected when he was 29 and was appointed to the cabinet later in his term, the youngest cabinet minister ever in PEI. MacAdam who is well known and well liked could very well take MacAulay down. However, MacAulay over the last 3 1/2 years has created alot of employment for his riding and also brang lots of goodies home. This riding will be the fight out of the Cabinet Ministers and will be watched closely!
12/10/00 RC Email:
Probably the Tories best shot for a pick-up in the whole country. The fact that a sitting provincial minister is running for them in a riding they only missed by 99 votes last time, is as good as it gets. Add to that the fact that PEI is probably the province least attracted to the Alliance in confederation (so little risk of vote spitting). People like a high-wire act. Taking a risk like he is sure will appeal to a lot of people. Nobody will dispute that the guy has balls. Good for him.
I wonder if he fancies himself as a potential leader after the election? Did someone say Stockwell Day was young, energetic and daring? Take that!
13/10/00 A.S. Email:
PEI's Liberal caucus is full (having survived, by white magic, the party's '97 Maritime calamities)but a little thin; MacAulay's the one lucky enough to be awarded a cabinet seat, but he had PEI's smallest '97 winning margin, and it's said he may be up against a provincial PC MLA...
16/10/00 Islander Email:
The senator for Cardigan will be retiring this year, MacAdam is making a brilliant move. He has a great chance now to be elected, BUT even he doesnt win the seat, you can count on a By-Elecion in Cardigan in the next year or so with MacAuley expected to be appointed to the senate next year. This is just a warm up for Mr.MacAdam.
16/10/00 Richard Email:
I don't know very much about PEI politics. But I do know that Joe Clarke and his tories are at a very low popularity rate right now and it seems unlikely that they are going to pick up very many seats. That being said, Matt has the Tories winning every PEI seat. Are we to believe that the blue monster which is more of a blue termite right now, will miraculously upset every MP on the island of green gables? I highly doubt it.
18/10/00 L.O. Email:
Pat Binns and crew did well all over this island. Now they will set their machine to work to elect one of their own. This is a tory gain - it was nearly a tory gain last time...
20/10/00 J Smith Email:
The Pat Binns factor comes into play in PEI. The Provincial PC's won every seat but one in the last election. The Tories almost pulled this one off last time. This time it will go PC.
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
Kevin MacAdam is a real star,and will have the provincial machine fully behind him. Doubtful whether the Alliance will even forward a candidate, so this will go PC again.
23/10/00 Hipfan Email:
Young and dynamic MacAdam versus the sitting Solicitor General? This looks like a perfect example of a Liberal who will become a sacrificial lamb for the government's screwups for the past couple of years.
24/10/00 randy gorman
28/10/00 tpw Email:
I predict the race to be close but not as close as in 97. Mr. Macaulay will win by over 300 to 500 votes.The reason is simple the liberals are putting money back into atlantic canada and back into EI,and the tories will not play any role in the next sitting of parliament.
01/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
If the Tories were still a viable national party, I'd be willing to give MacAdam an even chance. As it is ... the results might be close, but I doubt that Islanders will reject Their Man In Cabinet.
03/11/00 Mike Wakefield
The Alliance creeping into double digit support means that too many votes have left the Tories to win any seats in PEI.
03/11/00 Young Tory Email:
Well, the alliance is a Non Factor on PEI Pat Binns is 120% behind the Federal Party. As well all of the 26 PC MLA's are backing the Federal Party and going door to door with them. Pat Binns is encouraging people to support the federal party. When a premier who is 70% in the polls supports all of the 4 PC cadidates on the island, thats gotta pull some votes. Please, dont even bother with this Alliance non sense on PEI. It's just not going to happen.
07/11/00 Email:
Kevin MacAdam has proven to the people of PEI that he has the desire to work for his Province. As a Provincial MLA for 4 years, he gain respect amoung his constituients. Lawrence doesn't stand a chance against Kevin.
07/11/00 JC Email:
While Lawerence MacAulay may have gone into this election thinking he would have this seat handed to him, he is quickly finding out not to take anything for granted. Kevin MacAdam was a rising star in Provincial Politics but risked his career to fight in Ottawa for the people of Cardigan. The people of this Riding do not need a representative, much less a Minister, who MOVES a motion which eventually leads to the decimation of the Employment Insurance system. They need someone who will stand up to the big boys and girls, and that someone is not the previous MP, it is Kevin.
08/11/00 James T. Chlup
This is a very strong PC gain possibility. A strong candidate.
12/11/00 WN Email:
Islanders have a history of voting out their incumbent cabinet ministers. Just have a look at past federal election results on the Island involing incumbent cabinet ministers. That plus the current popularity of the provincial Tories, I would give this one ot the Tories. History will work again--bye bye cabinet minister.
15/11/00 Ivan MacArthur
Liberals will win this seat if it looks like a Liberals are going back to power. Only once since 1972 has it's member not been a member of the governing party that was the current Liberal incumbent Lawerence MacAulay(1988-93). It is unlikely cardigan will stray from its traditional voting pattern in this election.
15/11/00 J.W.
Mr Wakefield (see earlier post) appears to be right on the mark on this one. The Alliance numbers have grown in many ridings as voters realize the PC party is extremely weak in the polls. The Alliance won't come close to winning any seats on the Island but they will cause some serious vote splitting. I predict a Liberal victory on that basis.
15/11/00 David D. Anber
PC. Look at the stats 45-44% with 10% for the NDP. This time around the Liberals have a weaker record on health and the NDP is going to do to the Liberals what Nader did to Gore.
16/11/00 russell merkowitz Email:
a local business man i know routinely makes bets on election outcomes. he is calling for a liberal win in cardigan and he can't find anyone who will bet against him. look for the largest liberal landslide in the country in cardigan. any takers?
21/11/00 PEI Guardian Wayne Thibodeau
More than half of P.E.I.'s decided or leaning voters, 52 per cent, favour the party. That is seven percentage points higher than the 45 per cent popular vote the Liberals received in the 1997 federal election. Progressive Conservatives have the support of one in three, or 33 per cent, of Islanders, down five percentage points from 1997.
21/11/00 WJM Email:
It'll be a Liberal win, but the weakest one on PEI, and nowhere near a national high-landslide margin.
24/11/00 Email:
The Liberals have a stranglehold on PEI that even withstood the Mulroney landslide of 1984. That will continue this time around.
25/11/00 Mr.Bean Email:
Everyone knows that Mr.Thibadault is always biast against the Torys and anyone beside liberals is going to lose. He forgot to mention that 55% of the 400 people polled were UNDECIDED. Also please note that 400 people IS NOT a sufficient sample size because I have worked for Angus-Reid for years and have found polls with such a small sample size to be 150% inaccurate! And plus the polling company is one that mainly favors the liberals and past polls released by them have been biast towards that claim.
The only liberal candidate that has a chance is that of Mr.Easter. Mr. MacAdam, and John Griffin will win for the PC's in their respective ridings and in Hillsborough which I am a resident of, no one knows what is going to happen. The only poll that will really count will be that of November 27th.
26/11/00 JRFD Email:
With the NDP very much in the race here this is one to watch. This will be a three way race and will be one of the more interesting ones to watch on election day.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

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